How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.     

Changes of soil surface roughness under water erosion process

The objective of this study was to determine the changing characteristics of soil surface roughness under different rainfall intensities and examine the interaction between soil surface roughness and different water erosion processes. Four artificial management practices (raking cropland, artificial hoeing, artificial digging, and contour tillage) were used according to the local agriculture customs of the Loess Plateau of China to simulate different types of soil surface roughness, using an additional smooth slope for comparison purposes. A total of 20 rainfall simulation experiments were conducted in five 1 m by 2 m boxes under two rainfall intensities (0.68 and 1.50 mm min^?1) on a 15° slope. During splash erosion, soil surface roughness decreased in all treatments except raking cropland and smooth baseline under rainfall intensity of 0.68 mm min^?1, while increasing for all treatments except smooth baseline under rainfall intensity of 1.50 mm min^?1. During sheet erosion, soil surface roughness decreased for all treatments except hoeing cropland under rainfall intensity of 0.68 mm min^?1. However, soil surface roughness increased for the artificial hoeing and raking cropland under rainfall intensity of 1.50 mm min^?1. Soil surface roughness has a control effect on sheet erosion for different treatments under two rainfall intensities. For rill erosion, soil surface roughness increased for raking cropland and artificial hoeing treatments, and soil surface roughness decreased for artificial digging and the contour tillage treatments under two rainfall intensities. Under rainfall intensity of 0.68 mm min^?1, the critical soil surface roughness was 0.706 cm for the resistance control of runoff and sediment yield. Under rainfall intensity of 1.50 mm min^?1, the critical soil surface roughness was 1.633 cm for the resistance control of runoff, while the critical soil surface roughness was 0.706 cm for the resistance control of sediment yield. These findings have important implications for clarifying the erosive nature of soil surface roughness and harnessing sloped farmland. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震科研项目管理系统设计

通过结合Internet/Intranet技术和B/S模式,开发一套地震科研项目管理系统,可实现对科研项目申报、评审、进度跟踪、验收、查询和成果共享的全程信息化管理,有利于提高科技人员、评审专家和项目管理部门执行科研项目申报、评审和管理的工作效率。     

基于AHP的地震台站管理测评系统

为了科学评价地震台站的管理工作,全面提高其管理效益,利用层次分析（AHP）法,对地震台站各项工作进行综合考量,设计地震台站管理测评系统,并结合安徽省地震台站实例,验证该测评系统的适用性.     

地震仪器设备管理系统的设计与实现

利用Java语言,使用Microsoft SQL Server 2005数据库,利用MyEclipse工具研发地震仪器设备管理系统.使用该系统进行台站仪器设备信息管理,便于保存、查询、更新信息,实现数据资料的完整、准确、长期保存,工作效率增加.     

地质灾害防灾减灾技术研究现状及发展综述

中国是地质灾害最为严重的国家之一.许多学者和机构对如何防范地质灾害、减轻地质灾害的影响进行了研究.根据这些研究将地质灾害防灾减灾技术总结为4类：地质灾害监测,地质灾害预测预警,地质灾害风险评估和地质灾害风险管理.对国内外地质灾害的监测、预警、风险评估和风险管理等方面的研究进行了总结.分析了目前的发展状况和存在的问题.     

Coastal Case Study-Clarence City Council

This report chooses Clarence City Council as the coastal jurisdiction and analyzes its planning processes and instruments for its potential to build resilience to climate change impacts on the coast. In the first part, it introduces the change of Australia’s climate and consequences of climate change. Based on analysis of sea level rise, inundation and erosion risk, it shows climate change has impacts on Clarence coastal areas in Tasmania. This paper shows the three key elements for successful coastal management (retreat, accommodation and protection) and discusses the factors that impede resilience. Finally, there are some recommendations that may be helpful for climate change impacts and local council     

Anticipatory Adaptation Approaches to Climate Change--A Review and Discussion of Southern Australia’s Sustainable Water Management and Its Strategies and Shortcomings

Climate change issues has been discussed and argued for decades. It has been widely recognized that climate change will bring more serious issues to environment vulnerable areas than other areas. Southern Australia is one of the typical examples of vulnerable areas where water deficiency is enhanced by climate change. Although, this area has been successfully adapted with drought environment for decades, those shortcomings of strategies are highlighted by climate change events. In the interests of sustainable water management, Southern Australia’s experiences on possible anticipatory adaptation approaches, especially on mitigation of risks and costs of drought could be expected to provide recommendations to planning and management actions in the future     

What is responsible for increasing flood risks? The case of Gangwon Province,Korea

We examined the anthropogenic and natural causes of flood risks in six representative cities in the Gangwon Province of Korea. Flood damage per capita is mostly explained by cumulative upper 5% summer precipitation amount and the year. The increasing flood damage is also associated with deforestation in upstream areas and intensive land use in lowlands. Human encroachment on floodplains made these urban communities more vulnerable to floods. Without changes in the current flood management systems of these cities, their vulnerability to flood risks will remain and may even increase under changing climate conditions.     

Evaluation of effective management plan for an agricultural watershed using AVSWAT model,remote sensing and GIS

In the present investigation, an effort has been made to identify the critical sub-watersheds for the development of best management plan for a small watershed of Eastern India using a hydrological model, namely, AVSWAT2000. A total of 180 combinations of various management treatments including crops (rice, maize ground nut and soybean), tillage (zero, conservation, field cultivator, mould board plough and conventional practices) and fertilizer levels (existing half of recommended and recommended) have been evaluated. The investigation reveled that rice cannot be replaced by other crops such as groundnut, maize, mungbean, sorghum and soybean since comparatively these crops resulted in higher sediment yield. The tillage practices with disk plough have been found to have more impact on sediment yield and nutrient losses than conventional tillage practices for the existing level of fertilizer. Sediment yield decreased in the case of zero tillage, conservation tillage, field cultivator, moldboard plough, and conservation tillage as compare to conventional tillage. Lowest NO₃–N loss was observed in zero tillage in all the fertilizer treatments, whereas field cultivator, moldboard plough and disk plough resulted in increase of NO³–N loss. As compared to conventional tillage, the losses of soluble phosphorus were increased in moldboard plough. The losses of organic nitrogen were also increased as fertilizer dose increased. After zero tillage the conservation tillage preformed better in all the fertilizer treatments as per loss of organic nitrogen and organic phosphorus is concerned. It can be concluded that the sediment yield was found to be the highest in the case of disk plough followed by moldboard plough, field cultivator, conventional tillage, field cultivator and least in zero tillage practices. The nutrient losses were found to be in different order with tillage practices, resulted highest in disk plough tillage practices. In view of sediment yield and nutrient losses, the conservation tillage practice was found to be the best as the sediment yield is less than the average soil loss whereas nutrient loss is within the permissible limit.