Mann-Whitney U非参数检验方法及其在冰心气候学研究中的应用

介绍了最强的非参数检验之一Mann－WhitneyU非参数检验方法及其在冰心气候学研究中的应用。由于冰心气候环境记录具有分辨率高、保真性好和所记录的气候环境信息量大等优声、,因此将该非参数检验方法用于冰心气候学,可以帮助我们进行一些极端事件的研究,并对厄尔尼诺年古里雅冰心中所记录的降水量及δ18O的变化进行检验。     

48年来黄河入海水沙过程及其对流域人类活动的响应

黄河下游入海水沙现今出现急剧减少的趋势.水沙的季节性变化影响着年内的径流量、输沙量的分配情况.这种变化的影响因素有自然因素和人为因素两方面,而后者占主要地位.水沙的锐减对河口生态环境的变化有着负面影响.黄河干流已建成的大中型水库尤其是龙羊峡水库对入海水沙起着负面作用.     

投影寻踪门限自回归模型在海洋冰情预测中的应用

为预测海洋冰情时序这类非线性动力系统，提出了投影寻踪门限自回归（PPTAR）模型。用自相关分析技术确定预测因子，构造了新的投影指标函数，用门限回归（TR）模型描述投影值与预测对象间的非线性关系，并用实码加速遣传算法优化投影指标函数和TR模型参数。实例的计算结果表明，用PPTAR模型预测海洋冰情时序是可行和有效的，PPTAR模型简便，适用性强，克服了目前投影寻踪方法计算量大，编程实现困难的缺点，有助于投影寻踪方法的推广应用。为解决非线性时序复杂预测问题提供了新的途径。     

Ultimate Strength of Ship Plating under Axial Compression

The failure of a ship hull girder is governed by buckling and plastic collapse of the deck, bottom and side shell steel stiffened plates. The stiffened steel plating in ships is generally subjected to both in-plane and out-of-plane loading and is more important to understand the characteristics of these panels under buckling. Tests are reported on the collapse load of stiffened plates with and without cutout and with reinforced cutout under uniaxial compression. A generalized computer program for the semi-analytical solutions proposed by various investigators based on strut approach and orthotropic plate approach, and a finite element analysis program based on orthotropic plate approach are developed. The panels are also analysed using the finite element analysis software ANSYS. An approximate method based on strut approach is proposed to calculate the collapse load of stiffened plates with cutouts and initial imperfections. The reduction in strength of the panels due to the presence of square cutout, rectangular cutout and increase in strength due to reinforcement around rectangular cutout are calculated based on the test results. Comparisons are made between the test results and predictions based on semi-analytical solutions and finite element analyses, and the uncertainty parameters calculated are discussed. Based on this study it is concluded that the cutout can be reinforced with a maximum increase in strength up to 19% for plate initiated failures.     

预测细粒酒精模型冰物理和力学参数的实验关系

依据模型冰物理性质控制其力学性质的原则 ,利用能量平衡观点建立了冰内未冻结液体含量同制冰过程中的冰池温度、降温及升温时间、模型冰厚度 (喷雾时间×流量 )的理论关系 ,以其量纲表达式作为预测模型冰物理和力学参数的综合控制指标 ;通过系统测量酒精溶液冰点温度、冰池大厅气温、模型冰温度、冰内未冻液含量、冰密度、冰压缩强度、冰弯曲强度和冰变形模量 ,获得了不同冰点温度模型冰的物理和力学参数同该综合控制指标的实验关系 ;实现了用人为可控制因子定量控制模型冰物理和力学参数的目的     

A coupled ice-ocean model for the Bohai Sea Ⅰ. Study on model and parameter

According to the earlier international studies on the coupled ice-ocean model and the hydrology, meteorology, and ice features in the Bohai Sea, a coupled ice-ocean model is developed based on the National Marine Environment Forecast Center‘ s (NMEFC) numerical forecasting ice model of the Bohai Sea and the Princeton ocean model (POM). In the coupled model, the transfer of momentum and heat between ocean and ice is two-way, and the change of ice thickness and concentration depends on heat budget not only at the surface and bottom of ice, but also at the surface of open water between ices. The dynamic and thermodynamic coupling process is expatiated emphatically. Some thermodynamic parameters are discussed as well.     

北极海冰和赤道东太平洋海温对西太平洋副热带高压的影响

本文根据北极海冰和赤道东太平洋海温资料与西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高，下同）进行时滞相关分析。结果表明，北极海冰与副高是负相关，赤道东太平洋海温与副高是正相关，两者对西太平洋副高的影响同等重要，对副高的预报有一定的参考价值。     

Application of failure and fracture criteria during a tanker head-on collision

In this paper a discussion of three failure criteria during a tanker collision takes place. The ‘Fracture Criterion’ developed recently [Glykas, A., Samouelides, E., Das, P.K. (1996) Energy absorption capacity of plates under lateral loading. Proceedings of the 6th International Conference of Offshore and Polar Engineers, Los Angeles '96, Vol. IV, pp. 502–509.], deals with the amount of energy required so that arbitrary crack propagation originates from microscopic material flaws of the steel structure, in areas of high strain concentration during large deflections. This fracture criterion is applied in critical areas of a tanker bow structure during head-on collision with a vertical rigid body and its validity is examined in comparison to other two state of the art failure criteria. The penetration of the tanker vessel as well as the time to rest from the initiation of the collision are determined in relation to the failure criteria.     

Prediction of Static Strength of Tubular T and X Joints Subjected to Axial Compression

-The formulation of ring analogy method for the prediction of static strength (ductile collapse) of tubular T, X joints under axial compression based on the limit analysis of the ring with some assumptions is presented in this papaer. The regression formula for the effective length of the chord based on test results is established by means of the least square method. The results computed by the present semi-analytic formula are compared with previous results and test data. They are quite close to each other. The accuracy of the present formula depends on the reasonable selection of the effective length of the chord, which requires numerous test data.     

海冰淡化方法研究:浸泡离心脱盐法

在长兴岛海域采集了两种冰，灰白冰I号和灰白冰Ⅱ号，盐度分别为2．64和5.58．经过破碎过0．6cm网筛，筛下冰块作为淡化用冰。实验冰温-3～-2．5℃。离心速度2000r／min，离心时间2min，浸泡法最高脱盐率66％，只能作为盐碱地灌溉用水。浸泡液的加入比例对脱盐效果有影响，冰水比例为1：3或1：4比较合适。浸泡离心法最高脱盐率91％．该水质符合生活饮月1水标准、地面水环境质量标准、农田灌溉水质标准。浸泡液的加入比例和浸泡液的盐度都影响浸泡离心的脱盐效果。浸泡液的加入比例越大、盐度越低脱盐率越高。灰白冰I号原始盐度低于灰白冰Ⅱ号，经过淡化后仍然未改变。