Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.     

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呼图壁地区震源机制解及构造应力场特征分析

基于新疆测震台网记录的数字地震波形,运用CAP方法测定呼图壁地区2010-01-15~2017-01-02共50次MS≥3.0地震的震源机制解,同时结合早期23次MS≥3.0地震的震源机制解数据,应用MSATSI软件反演研究区时空应力场。结果表明,研究区应力结构类型表现为逆断型,整个区域主压应力P轴近NNE向且倾角较小,说明整个呼图壁地区应力场以NNE向水平挤压作用为主要特征。从空间上看,东部的水平挤压作用更为显著;从时间上看,2010~2016年受到更为显著的NNE向应力场控制,反映了研究区在不同时段应力场的调整变化,但没有改变该区域最大主压应力轴呈NNE向的总体特征,说明整个呼图壁地区可能主要受一种较稳定的NNE向应力场控制。     

断层周围的弹塑性区及其地质意义

采用弹塑性有限单元方法 ,通过模拟符合实际状况的逐步加载过程所引起应力场和塑性形变区的研究 ,得出如下结果 :①在塑性或韧性剪切形变情况下 ,断裂或形变带的共轭剪切角往往大于 4 5° ;②在双向挤压应力条件下 ,先存断裂的前缘部位没有拉伸应力存在 ,但可能有伸展形变发生 ;③与最大主压应力夹角为 3 0°～ 90°的断层前缘是偏应力的优势方位 ,容易发生塑性剪切形变 ,特别是夹角为 60°左右的断层是最易发生新的构造活动的断层 ;④多数断层两侧一定范围内以及断层内部是相对的低应力区。这些应力的低值区 ,非常有利于矿液和油气的运移、聚集和成藏。     

晋南地穹列煤层气赋存区构造应力分析

根据晋南地穹列构造型相分析，恢复了4期应力场：①地洼初动期（印支期）近S－N水平挤压；②地洼激烈期（燕山期）NWW－SEE水平挤压；③地洼余动期（喜山早期）NNE－SSW水平挤压；④地洼余动期（喜山中期）NW－SE、NWW－SEE近水平伸展。其现代构造应力场以NW－SE向伸展应力场为主，但在沁水地穹则表现为NEE－SWW向近水平挤压应力场。有限元模拟分析证实：此局部挤压应力场的动力来源于挽近地质时期太行山和霍山的隆起与抬升，临汾地洼和太原地洼中的伸展应力场则与地洼壳体下部慢源物质逸散所导致的侧向拉伸有关。区内应力降的分布特点与晋南地穹列断裂构造发育程度具有良好的对应相关性，在高应力降区，单位体积煤层气含量显著高于其它地区。模拟主应力差等值线图中两个高主应力差值区恰好与东部沁水地穹中两个高含气量区相对应，充分说明地洼余动期构造应力场中高压应力区是煤层气富集的有利地区。     

井筒及围岩应力,应变观测方法研究

采用最新研制的岩体应力、应变匹配传感器对西安立井煤柱开采引起的井筒附加应力特别是对井筒穿过断层附近产生的附加应力进行了较系统的观测，并对观测结果进行了分析和总结。     

原岩应力与煤层底板隔水层阻水能力的关系

介绍了水力压裂应力测量的原理和现场测量结果,论述了煤层底板隔水层带的阻水机理和承压水沿煤层上升的机理,以及原岩应力、水压与裂隙扩展的关系。指出对于厚底板隔水层,原岩应力起着阻止底板承压水上升和突出的作用,对于薄底板隔水层,原岩应力起着破坏底板、导致承压水突出的作用。      

沟谷的隧道效应

深入研究沟谷应力场的一般规律对于岩爆机理和岩爆预测研究是重要的。V字型沟谷应力场的弹性解析解表明,在沟谷横断面上,存在一个大致平行于沟谷轮廊线的切应力高值区;在轮廊线的内法线方向,切应力单调减小,直至过渡到正常应力区,沟谷的隧道效应是显著的。沟谷的下切形成的二次应力场除了关于沟谷中线基本对称外,不具备轴对称特征,从坡顶到坡角,切应力高值区内切应力量级和高值区的宽度逐渐增大,在沟谷正下方达到最大,甚至有可能突然增大。沟谷深度和坡度越大、构造应力量级越高,切应力越大;在沟谷横断面上,塑性区的厚度具有明显的垂向变化,坡顶大,中间小,沟谷正下方又增大     

主应力轴旋转对剪切带形成的影响分析

软土的剪切带形成对于研究土的工程性质、土体稳定性评价有重要的意义。 采用可以考虑主应力轴旋转影响的土的弹塑性本构模型———关口-太田模型, 分析主应力轴旋转对剪切带形成的影响, 得出最可能发生局部剪切变形的方向同主应力轴的旋转角有关, 但主轴旋转对激发变形局部化失稳的影响不大的结论。