鄱阳湖流域过去1000 a径流模拟以及对气候变化响应研究

为研究过去千年尺度径流变化及其对气候变化的响应,以长江中游鄱阳湖流域为研究区,运用气候模式CCSM4和ECHAM5模拟过去1000 a气候数据,空间降尺度后驱动水文模型模拟了鄱阳湖流域过去近千年流域径流序列.利用快速傅里叶变换、小波分析等手段,分析流域极端径流变化特征、周期和该流域旱涝事件发生频率.结果表明:2种气候模式均能反映出中世纪暖期及小冰期阶段的干湿交替变化,且小冰期内中干旱状态维持时间较长;径流的丰枯变化与降水量变化具有较好的对应关系.CCSM4和ECHAM5模式下发生旱涝灾害与极大极小降水事件发生频率基本相同,径流丰枯变化与降水变化周期相近,均具有30 a左右的主周期,10~15、7 a左右的子周期.小波系数模平方图中30 a左右显著的能量信号揭示了该周期与北太平洋气候的主要环流机制的太平洋年代际振荡周期相近,因此,大气环流涛动是造成气候-水文变化的主要原因.研究结果拓展了基于近代60 a观测记录的流域水文变化的认识,探讨了千年时间长度下流域干湿变化特征和水文对气候响应的动力机制,有助于全面系统认识长江中游在全球气候暖化背景下旱涝极端水文事件的发生机制与变化规律.     

震源机制与应力体系关系模拟研究

为理解震源机制和所作用的应力张量之间的关系,模拟了东西向挤压、垂直向拉张的挤压应力体系,南北向挤压、东西向拉张的走滑应力体系和垂直向挤压、东西向拉张的拉张应力体系所产生震源机制及其剪应力和正应力的表现.结果表明:挤压应力体系可以产生逆断型、走滑型和逆走滑型的震源机制,并随着应力形因子R的增大,逆断型震源机制数目逐渐减小,而走滑型和逆走滑型震源机制数目逐渐增加;走滑应力体系兼有各种类型的震源机制,随着R值的增大,正断型和正走滑型震源机制数目逐渐减小,而逆断型和逆走滑型震源机制数目逐渐增加;拉张应力体系兼有正断型、走滑型和正走滑型震源机制,随着R值的增加,正断型震源机制数目逐渐增加,而走滑型和正走滑型震源机制数目逐渐减小.挤压应力体系在震源机制节面上的最大剪应力分布在R=0时沿倾角45°分布,随着R值增大至1,逐渐演变为沿着以(0°,90°)和(180°,90°)为中心的圆弧分布;拉张应力体系的最大剪应力分布则随着R值自0增大至1,最大剪应力自以(0°,90°)和(180°,90°)为中心的圆弧分布逐渐演变为沿倾角45°分布;走滑应力体系则随着R值自0增大至1,最大剪应力自以(0°,90°)和(180°,90°)为中心的圆弧分布逐渐演变为以(90°,90°)为中心的圆弧分布.三种应力体系所表现的震源机制P,T轴分布呈现复杂多样性:R越小,震源机制的T轴分布在拉张主应力周围的区域范围越小,而P轴分布在挤压轴周围的区域范围越大,R=0.5时两者分布区域范围均衡,R超过0.5时越接近1,震源机制的P轴分布在挤压主应力周围的区域范围越小,而T轴分布在拉张轴附近的区域范围越大.     

南海礼乐盆地新生代构造热演化特征及其影响因素

为深入认识新生代礼乐盆地的热体制特征,利用耦合岩石圈变形、热演化和沉积过程的热力学数值模型,重建了8条骨干剖面的构造热演化史,并对主要构造单元的热体制进行了分析．结果表明：张裂阶段,热流总体上随时间增加,张裂结束时,海底热流一般介于70～80mW·m~(-2),基底浅埋区热流高于邻近凹陷区内热流;裂后阶段,非礁体发育区热流逐渐降低,现今海底热流一般介于65～70mW·m~(-2),局部区域热流因岩体侵位而有所增高,礁体发育区受到礁体与周围海水热交换的影响,海底热流降低或为负值,而基底热流可以达到70mW·m~(-2)左右．进一步分析表明,礼乐盆地新生代热体制主要是在古近纪岩石圈强烈减薄基础上,叠加了晚期岩浆侵位、基底起伏、沉积过程以及海底地形等局部因素影响的结果,礁体发育区热体制还受到礁体与周围海水热交换的影响;盆地凹陷中心区生油门限深度一般介于2000～2500mbsf,门限温度介于90～110℃;礁体发育区生油门限深度明显大于邻近的北1凹陷沉积中心区．     

金字塔沙丘风洞流场结构的实验研究——兼论金字塔沙丘发育模式

金字塔沙丘以其大尺度、金字塔形态和放射状伸展的沙臂为特征。本文以三面体金字塔沙丘模型的风洞流场实验为基础,结合野外观测资料,发现金字塔沙丘的流场结构,特别是背风侧剖面流场除具有一般新月形沙丘的流场结构特点外,还有特殊的"E"型流场结构,正是这种多向风信产生的复杂流场结构形成具有凹面形态的多角形金字塔沙丘。据此,作者提出了由新月形沙丘(包括其复合形态)演化为金字塔沙丘的发育模式。     

水利工程对长江荆南三口水系连通功能变化的影响

为了揭示荆南三口地区水利工程与水系连通功能的定量关系,基于1954、1975、1990、2008和2016年5期的水利工程与水系连通功能的相关数据,运用集对分析和相关分析等方法,定量评价了水利工程对长江荆南三口水系连通功能的影响,结果表明：1）区内外水利工程与多年日均径流保证率、河道断流率、输沙效率的相关系数（R²）均＞0.5,皆达到显著性水平。2）自然功能3个模块的联系主值数基本呈下降趋势,但物质能量传递功能与生态维系功能下降尤为明显。1990年之前物质能量传递与生态维系功能处于一个较好的状态,1990年后这2项功能的等级已下降至“差”;社会功能3个模块的联系主值数的变化各不相同。洪涝防御功能一直处于上升状态,而水资源调配功能和水能与水运资源利用功能都在1954-1990年呈下降趋势,1990年后,水资源调配功能逐渐回升,水能与水运资源利用功能持续下降。3）1954-2008年自然功能等级和综合功能等级都有所下降,直到2016年才稍有回升,但升幅较小,等级较低;社会功能等级在1954-1990年较低,2008年以后回升,且明显高于自然功能等级。     

Influence of river-lake isolation on the water level variations of Caizi Lake,lower reach of the Yangtze River

In order to explore the water level variations of Caizi Lake under river-lake isolation,the monthly water level of the Chefuling station in Caizi Lake from 1989 to 2018 and the daily water level,rainfall and flow of local hydrological stations in 2018 were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis.Results showed that the difference of the average water level of Caizi Lake between the flood and dry seasons was 3.34 m,with a multi-year average water level of 10.42 m above sea level.The first and second main periods of the water level of Caizi Lake were 128 and 18 months,respectively,with 4 and 29 "up-down" cycles,respectively.From 2018,the next 3-4 years were likely to be the low water level period.The water level of Caizi Lake was significantly correlated with that of the Anqing hydrological station of the Yangtze River (r=0.824,P＜0.01).In addition,the current hydrological staging of Caizi Lake was about 30 days behind than before the sluice was built.Under the dual influences of the river-lake isolation and the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (YHWD),the hydrological regime change of Caizi Lake and its eco-environmental effect needed long-term monitoring and research.     

超高压变质带的全球分布及其大地构造意义

对全球28个超高压变质岩产地的地质对比研究发现,超高压变质带的发育,与弧-陆和陆-陆碰撞造山带关系密切。碰撞造山带多发育于活动的大陆边缘。在那里,冷的陆壳物质可以深俯冲到另一个相对稳定的未俯冲的板块之下,其深度可以超过90~120 km,在高压达>2.5 GPa和温度约600℃或更高条件下,导致超高压特征矿物如,柯石英、金刚石等的生成。在空间分布上,超高压变质带集中于欧亚大陆及其周缘,澳洲和北美目前尚未有报道。从时代上看,超高压变质带多出现于显生宙,前寒武纪只有晚元古代（泛非运动期）少数两例。说明以超高压变质带为特征的碰撞造山作用,是显生宙以来,陆壳增生达到一定的规模后,才出现的构造体制;Rodinia和Pangea古大陆的裂解,使地温梯度降低,从而有利于超高压变质带的生成。     

珠江口现行潮汐基准面的质疑与探讨

详细分析了珠江口水域现行潮汐基准面存在的若干问题,利用珠江口水文信息系统的长期验潮站资料对潮汐基准面进行了计算和精度分析,获得了科学的、合理的潮汐基准面资料,最后提出了进行专题分析评估现行潮汐基准面资料科学性和合理性的建议。     

Combining the management of water level regimes and plant structures for waterbird habitat provision in wetlands

The survival of waterbirds depends heavily on habitat, particularly aquatic plants. For each kind of aquatic plant, there are specific water level regime requirements to meet its germination and growth. Previous studies usually focused on the use of water level management to achieve protection and restoration of aquatic plants. However, the water level regimes in many wetlands have been greatly changed and their ecological objectives usually cannot be achieved by water level management alone. Accordingly, this study combined water level management and artificial planting for waterbird habitat provision in wetlands. The Hongze Lake National Wetland Nature Reserve was taken as the research area. In this study, we considered the needs of waterbirds for nesting and foraging, and determined the aquatic plant species to be planted. According to the seasonal water level requirements of these plants, we simulated the plantable areas of different aquatic plants under different water level regimes. We then further optimized the water level regimes according to the needs of waterbirds, and determined the optimal water level management scheme. In addition, we formulated planting principles, explored the planting structure under each water level regime, so that the plant structure can better serve the waterbirds. The results showed that the current water level regime of Hongze Lake is not consistent with the growth rhythm of aquatic plants. Because of the human regulation, the water level of the wetland is high in winter and low in summer, which is contrary to the requirements of aquatic plant growth. A combination of water level regimes and plant structure management, however, could effectively expand the area for waterbird habitat. The results of this study will help wetland managers to make informed decisions about how to restore the waterbird habitat in other similar regulated wetlands.     

Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga–Bhadra river basin,India with HEC‐HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Tunga–Bhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC‐HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear‐regression‐based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub‐basins of the study area. The large‐scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub‐basins in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.