Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years

The human and natural factors complicit in the driving forces of oasis change have always received considerable interest from the international research community. In this study, we used principal component analysis of natural and socio-economic statistical factors to quantitatively analyze the causal relationships and their contributions to the observed periodic expansion or shrinkage of the Minqin Oasis over almost 60 years. Our results show that human factors were the dominant factors governing expansion or shrinkage, with average contributions of 69.38% and 76.16%, respectively. Moreover, policy decisions have been the pivotal human factors. Under the influence of various policies, we have found that water resource utilization, land reclamation, population explosion, ecological protection and economic development have each played leading roles in different periods. This study provides a scientific basis for modelling the dynamics of an oasis for sustainable management.     

2000-2014年人类活动对贵州省植被净初级生产力的影响

利用MODIS实际净初级生产力数据与CASA模型估算得到的潜在净初级生产力,建立贵州省2000-2014年人类活动相对贡献指数(RCI),并依据各县喀斯特地貌面积和等级比例探究其年际变化及空间分布特征,再通过相关分析辨析选定的人类活动因子对其的影响。结果表明:(1)贵州省RCI均小于-0.5,人类活动促进了植被净初级生产力的增加,以2007年为转折点,影响程度先增强后减弱;(2)贵州省东北部、中部及西部地区的RCI多大于0,人类活动对生态环境有负面干扰作用;东南部及北部边缘地带的RCI多小于-1,人类活动的正面影响较强;(3)贵州省中部、北部大部分地区的RCI缓慢下降,人类活动对植被的正面影响增强;东南部部分区域的RCI由负转正,人类活动负面干扰作用增强;西南边界地区的RCI呈上升趋势却仍为负值,人类干预程度呈减弱趋势;(4)贵州省农业活动在人类活动的负面影响中有重要作用;城镇化与经济发展对生态环境既有正面影响,也有不可避免的负面干扰。     

云南阳宗海流域过去13000年植被演替与森林火灾

以云南阳宗海1020 cm长的湖泊沉积物岩芯为研究对象,由7个木屑和树叶残体样的AMS14C测年建立岩芯年代框架,以18~19 cm间隔获取52个样品作花粉/炭屑分析,重建了阳宗海流域过去13000年的植被、气候以及森林火灾历史。研究结果表明,过去13000年植被演替、气候变化和森林火灾可分为5个阶段:1)13200~11000 cal.a B.P.,植被以常绿、落叶阔叶混交林为主,气候温凉湿润,森林火灾多发,后期(12300~11000 cal.a B.P.)随着温度和湿度的降低,森林火灾发生愈加频繁;2)11000~8000 cal.a B.P.,松林扩张,阔叶林缩小,气候较上阶段温暖偏干,森林火灾发生次数明显降低;3)8000~5000 cal.a B.P.,松林和常绿阔叶林占优势,且出现暖热性的枫香林,流域内气温升至13000 cal.a B.P.以来的最高值,湿度进一步降低,但森林火灾发生频率低;4)5000~800 cal.a B.P.,松林扩张至最盛,常绿阔叶林收缩,落叶阔叶林成分增加,气温和湿度均明显下降,森林火灾发生频率有所增加;5)800 cal.a B.P.至今,松林和常绿阔叶林收缩,落叶阔叶成分增加,草本植物中禾本科迅速上升,可能与人类活动有关,森林火灾发生频率低。阳宗海花粉/炭屑记录重建的植被、气候和森林火灾史表明,在滇中地区,落叶阔叶成分易引起森林火灾,冷气候导致多发的森林火灾,冷干气候是宜森林火灾发生的气候条件。     

浙江下王渡遗址中晚全新世古环境演变及人类活动初步研究

通过对浙江宁奉平原下王渡遗址剖面样品的孢粉以及地化元素分析,结合5个AMS14C年代数据及考古学文化分层,揭示了河姆渡晚期文化时期及良渚时期该遗址所在区域环境变化及人类活动响应。研究表明：该遗址区温暖湿润的气候条件为河姆渡先民的定居创造了条件,植被面貌以常绿落叶阔叶混交林为主。孢粉及地化元素等证据表明中全新世的海侵使得该遗址区发生了一次文化中断,海洋的影响从河姆渡文化第四期开始逐渐消退。从这一时期开始,草本植物花粉占比很大程度地超过乔灌木植物花粉,特别是粒径不小于37 μm禾本科花粉含量的增加,推测为栽培作物类型。花粉信号揭示了人类活动对自然环境的改造开始逐渐加强,在下王渡遗址区附近可能出现有一定规模的水稻种植区。     

Streamflow change of major rivers over the Tibetan Plateau during the last half century and its possible causes

The streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in the water supply of Asia's main river basins. To enhance understanding of hydrologic cycle under the pronounced warming over the TP, this study comprehensively investigates the streamflow changes at the upstream of six major rivers (Yellow River, Yalong River, Jinsha River, Lancang River, Nu River, and Yarlung Zangbo River) originating from the TP, and then diagnoses their possible causes by analysing the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Results indicate that these six major rivers studied have generally insignificant increasing trends in annual streamflow during the last half century, except for two stations. The significant increase appears at the Tuotuohe station in the headwater area of Jinsha River, while the dramatic decrease occurs at the Yunjinghong station in the downstream of Lancang River. In terms of climate factors, the six river basins show a distinct warming trend, along with a noticeable increase in precipitation over the central and northern regions. Pan evaporation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity have been found to gradually decrease in most areas. As for the Tuotuohe station, both warming-induced meltwater and increasing precipitation might jointly contribute to the increasing streamflow. But for the Yunjinghong station, the results simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model indicate that human activities, especially for the impoundment processes of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu dams, significantly influenced the streamflow, contributing to approximately 69% of the streamflow reduction during 2009–2013. In the context of accelerated global warming, greater attention should be paid to hydrometeorological changes on the TP to offer further insights for the water resources management of the ‘Asian Water Tower’.     

The character and age structure of valley fills in upper Wolumla Creek catchment,south coast,New South Wales,Australia

Extensive valley fills at the base of the escarpment in upper Wolumla Creek, on the south coast of New South Wales, Australia, have formed from a combination of ‘cut and fill’ processes. The valley fills comprise series of alternating, horizontally bedded sand and mud units, reflecting reworking of detritus from deeply weathered granites of the Bega Batholith. Sand units are deposited as sand sheets or splays on floodplain surfaces or in floodouts that form atop intact valley fill surfaces downstream of discontinuous gullies. Alternatively, sands are deposited from bedload and form bars or part of the valley floor within channel fills. Organic-rich mud units are deposited from suspension in swamps or in seepage zones at the distal margin of floodouts. Within 5 km of the escarpment, valley deposits grade downstream from sand sheet and splay deposition in floodouts, to mud deposition in swamp and seepage zones. Radiocarbon dates indicate that virtually the entire valley fill of upper Wolumla Creek was excavated prior to 6000 years BP . Remnant terraces are evident at valley margins. The valley subsequently filled between 6000 years BP and 1000 years BP producing valley fills around 12 m deep, but no greater than 300 m wide. Reincision into the valley fill, on a scale smaller than the present incision phase, is indicated at around 1000 years BP , following which the channel refilled. Portion plans dated from 1865 refer to the study area as ‘Wolumla Big Flat’, and show large areas of swampy terrain, suggesting that the valley fill had re-established by this time. Within a few decades of European settlement the valley fill incised once more. Upper Wolumla Creek now has a channel over 10 m deep and 100 m wide in places, draining a catchment area of less than 20 km². © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中亚干旱区咸海面积变化与人类活动及气候变化的关联研究

咸海是亚洲仅次于里海的第二大内陆咸水湖, 20世纪60年代以来湖泊面积急剧萎缩。基于1960 - 2018年咸海的面积数据、 CRU气温和降水数据以及咸海流域灌溉面积、 水库容量等资料, 定量分析了1960年以来咸海湖泊面积的变化情况, 并从气候变化与人类活动两方面探究了咸海面积变化的主要影响因素。结果表明： 1960 - 2018年咸海的面积由6.85×10⁴ km²持续萎缩至（8.32±0.19）×10³ km², 共减少了（6.02±0.02）×10⁴ km²（约87.85%）, 其中1960 - 2009年面积萎缩了（5.94±0.02）×10⁴ km²（约86.77%）, 而在2009 - 2018年其面积萎缩速率明显放缓, 减少了740.04 km²（约8.17%）。统计结果显示, 1960年以来强烈的人类活动（主要表现为灌溉用水和水库储水量的持续增加）是导致咸海面积急剧萎缩的主要因素, 其对咸海面积变化的影响远大于气候变化。在中亚地区气候继续向暖湿变化的背景下, 咸海流域应尽快调整以农业灌溉为主的用水结构, 否则在上游冰川融水达到峰值后, 咸海可能面临干涸的危险。     

近55年来降水及人类活动对资水流域径流的影响

为估算气候变化和人类活动对湖南资水流域径流量变化的相对影响程度,采用累计距平法以及滑动t检验法对资水流域近55年的降水量、径流量序列进行趋势分析和突变检验;采用累积量斜率变化率比较法和双累积曲线法分别计算降水及人类活动的贡献率。结果表明:资水上游的罗家庙站受人类活动影响较明显;在资水中下游,变异期Ⅰ(1987～2001年),降水对流域径流的影响量大于人类活动的贡献率;在变异期Ⅱ(2002～2014年),人类活动的贡献率大幅增加并逐步成为径流变化的主要驱动因素。     

Spatial history of kauri driving dam placement in the Kauaeranga Valley,Coromandel Peninsula

Understanding past anthropogenic influences on fluvial systems is an integral part of riverine research. In this paper the spatial history of kauri driving dam placement from the 1870s to the 1930s is studied using oral histories, historic documents and GIS in an attempt to assess the accuracy of historical accounts in reference to dam position in the landscape and assess the relationship of dam position to landscape features and characteristics. GIS results supported historical documentation showing that key factors influencing dam placement were location to kauri, geomorphic impediments to transport, slope and distance to deep water for rafting.     

人力资本视角下云南农村家庭教育投资研究

人力资本缺失是云南农村致贫的重要原因,未来云南农村的经济增长和社会进步很大程度上依赖于农村人力资本的增长。教育投资是积累人力资本的有效途径之一,教育投资的方式和力度对人力资本积累有很大影响。基于对现有调查问卷的分析,揭示了云南农村家庭教育投资的一些特征,认为云南农村家庭教育投资能力不足与其热衷于高学历教育投资产生矛盾,并探究了此矛盾产生的原因,提出了解决此矛盾的一些对策及措施。