全球变化与区域干旱化

本文总结了已完成的国家重点基础研究发展规划计划项目(“973”项目)“我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测”(1999～2004年)和正在执行的“973”项目“北方干旱化与人类适应”的有关干旱化问题研究的部分成果。主要是中国科学院大气物理研究所最近几年在近代区域干旱化的事实及全球联系方面的研究进展,并对全球增暖背景下区域干旱化的形成机理展开讨论。     

遥感图像空间分辨率改进值计算方法

为了克服超分辨重建后的遥感图像空间分辨率的界定还采用人工对比判读存在误差和结论不统一的缺点,利用调制传递函数、奈奎斯特采样定理和人眼极限频率,建立了一种新的空间分辨率客观评价方法。利用该方法计算超分辨率重建后的遥感图像相比原始遥感图像空间分辨率的提高倍数,从而推断出重建后遥感图像的空间分辨率的大小。在数值测试中,利用不同的超分辨率方法对分级变频矩形光栅图像进行重建,采用提出的空间分辨率评价方法,与归一化均方误差、峰值信噪比、信息熵、灰度平均梯度进行客观评价的结果一致。此方法为遥感图像空间分辨率改进值的计算提供了一种可行的量化模型。     

Sediment cascades and the entangled relationship between human impact and natural dynamics at the pre-pottery Neolithic site of Göbekli Tepe,Anatolia

This study presents a meta-analysis of radiocarbon ages for the environs of Göbekli Tepe – one of the oldest monumental structures worldwide – using cumulative probability functions to diachronically assess phases of geomorphodynamic activity as controlled by natural or anthropogenic drivers. We employ sediment cascades as a heuristic framework to study the complex responses of the geomorphological system to various triggers at local to supra-regional scales. Possible triggers include climatic variability as documented by supra-regional hydroclimatic proxy data, regional demographic trends, and local to regional socioeconomic developments such as the emergence of sedentism or the introduction and dispersal of livestock herding. Our results show that phases of intensified geomorphodynamic activity occurred between ca. 7.4–7.0 and 5.8–3.3 ka BP. These phases roughly coincide with phases of population growth in southern Turkey and climatic variations in Turkey and the Levant. The phase between ca. 5.8–3.3 ka BP also corresponds to the time when organized agriculture and the seeder plough were introduced. Also, the identified phases are in agreement with the general trend of varying geomorphodynamic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean as driven by human impact and climatic change. However, neither the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition nor the development of herding during the Pre-Pottery Neolithic left a clear signature. We demonstrate how the different depositional environments in the studied landscape compartments vary with respect to their spatiotemporal coverage and discuss challenges when trying to understand processes that once shaped landscapes of past societies. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

干旱区土地荒漠化中人类因素分析

目前干旱区突出的矛盾是,人类活动对环境的负效应在总体上已导致以土地荒漠化急剧发展为主的生态环境质量显著下降。基于1994年“联合国防治荒漠化公约”给出的土地荒漠化概念和干旱区的特点,划分土地荒漠化的自然因素和人为因素。通过人类活动的涵义和特点的探讨,首次全面和综合地分析了土地荒漠化发展中的人类活动因素,包括人类活动的驱动作用、人类各种活动方式的作用和人类活动的管理作用等。依据一定的原则,构建出适用于干旱区人类活动对土地荒漠化作用的指标体系,该指标体系多为量化指标并可反映人类活动的动态变化,可为人类活动在土地荒漠化中作用的更进一步(定量)研究提供依据。     

Late Holocene environmental changes and anthropogenic impact in Dee Why Lagoon,New South Wales

Late Holocene environmental changes were examined in Dee Why Lagoon, New South Wales, based on the sedimentological, geochemical and geochronological analysis of six cores collected from the fluvial delta and lagoon basin. The lagoon formed about 7300–7200?cal yr BP, following the post-glacial marine transgression and establishment of a sand barrier. Infilling of the lagoon occurred at a rate of 0.09–0.15?mm/yr until about 3300–3200?cal yr BP, when the barrier closed, resulting in mostly freshwater conditions, as evidenced by a change from pyrite-rich units to sediment containing little sulfur and a lack of foraminifera. Sedimentation rates increased to 0.23 then 0.43?mm/yr until about 100?years ago. Post-European land clearance led to an increase in sedimentation rates to 1.0–1.3?mm/yr on the fluvial delta, which are lower than those from other wave-dominated estuaries in New South Wales as well as those estimated by previous studies in Dee Why Lagoon. Our study shows that the fluvial delta started forming much earlier than originally thought, based on results of radiometric dating, and confirmed using sedimentological and geochemical data, as well as a critical examination of historic aerial photographs. Human impact has resulted in an increase in heavy metal (Cu, Pb, Zn) and metalloid (As) concentrations in the recent sediment, most likely attributed to stormwater discharge. Pb and As concentrations are above the ANZECC high sediment quality guideline values at the site closest to the stormwater outlet, with As-based pesticides one of the possible sources. Using the mean enrichment quotient, which is based on normalised Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations over their normalised background concentrations, we show that the surface sediments in Dee Why Lagoon are severely enriched, reflecting the recent anthropogenic impact that has also led to an increase in sedimentation rates.     

中国环境考古学的兴起、发展和展望

环境考古学是一门介于考古学与第四纪环境学(或古地理学)之间的边缘学科。它出现于20世纪之初,经过近1个世纪的摸索和实践,在理论和方法上日趋成熟。中国环境考古学出现较晚,但发展迅速,已经形成以人类生态系统理论为依据,以聚落和遗址古环境分析为主要手段,以探讨古代人类行为及其文化的形成、发展和演变的环境背景为目标的新型交叉学科。目前,它已经逐渐得到了中国考古学家的广泛认同,并成为考古学研究的重要组成部分,在涉及人类起源、MIS3阶段旧石器晚期文化革命、旧—新石器文化过渡以及农业起源、文明起源等一系列关键问题的研究中发挥着重要作用。     

我国西北地区21世纪季节气候变化情景分析

使用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)数据分发中心提供的7个全球海气耦合气候系统模式(CCC、CCSR、CSIRO、DKRZ、GFDL、HADL、NCAR)的模拟结果,对我国西北地区未来21世纪考虑温室气体增加(GG)和温室气体与硫化物气溶胶共同影响(GS)时,冬夏季的气候变化情景进行了分析.模式集成结果分析表明,我国西北地区的变暖趋势与全球、东亚和中国一致,但变暖幅度明显高于全球、东亚和中国.对未来100年各个季节线性倾向的分析表明,西北地区GG和GS时都是冬季变暖最大,可高达5～8℃/100a,且整个西北地区中新疆地区为最大变暖区.21世纪由于人类活动,西北地区最低温度和最高温度都将明显升高,其线性趋势可达4～6℃/100 a.由于全球气候模式对区域尺度的模拟存在较大的不确定性,未来需要作更多的深入研究.     

Changes in run‐off and sediment load in the three parts of the Yellow River basin,in response to climate change and human activities

Hydrological regimes in the Yellow River have changed significantly because of climate change and intensive human interventions. These changes present severe challenges to water resource utilization and ecological development. Variation of run‐off, suspended sediment load (SSL), and eight precipitation indices (P1: 0–12 mm·day^?1, P12: 12–25 mm·day^?1, P25: 25–50 mm·day^?1, P50: P ≥ 50 mm·day^?1 and corresponding rainfall day: Pd1, Pd12, Pd25, Pd50 day year^?1) in three critical parts of the Yellow River basin (source region: SRYRB, upper reaches: URYRB, middle reaches: MRYRB) were investigated for the period from 1960 to 2015. The results show that run‐off and SSL significantly decreased (P < 0.01) in the URYRB and the MRYRB, whereas their decline in the SRYRB was insignificant (P > 0.05). Moreover, run‐off in the URYRB had one change point in 1987, and SSL in the URYRB as well as run‐off and SSL in the MRYRB had two change points (in the 1970s and the 1990s). Over the same period, only Pd1 and Pd12 in the SRYRB showed significant increasing trends, and an abrupt change appeared in 1981. The optimal precipitation indices for assessing the effects of precipitation on run‐off and SSL in the URYRB and MRYRB were Pd50 and P12, respectively. A double‐mass curve analysis showed that precipitation and human activities contributed to approximately 20% and 80% of the reduction in run‐off, respectively, for both the SRYRB and the MRYRB. However, the contribution rate of precipitation and human activities on SSL reduction was approximately 40% and 60% in the URYRB and 5% and 95% in the MRYRB, respectively. Human activities, primarily soil and water conservation measures and water extraction (diversion), were the main factors (>50%) that reduced the run‐off. However, the dominant driving factors for SSL reduction were soil and water conservation measures and reservoir interception, for which the contribution rate was higher than 70% in the MRYRB. This work strengthens the understanding of hydrological responses to precipitation change and provides a useful reference for regional water resource utilization.     

基于“三生”系统的典型旅游城市人居环境演变过程及机制研究——以张家界市为例

从“三生”系统切入,结合熵值法和HP滤波分析,按照“演化轨迹描述-周期阶段划分-演化路径及驱动机制剖析”的逻辑主线,探索1989年以来以张家界为代表的典型旅游城市人居环境演变过程及驱动机制。研究表明：① 基于“三生”系统内涵、关系及形成机理,分析得到旅游城市“三生”系统由自然生态、旅游生产和城市生活子系统构成,其人居环境由“原住民居环境”和“旅游者居环境”构成,两者在功能、目标、特征等方面具有较强契合性。② 结合熵值法,测度了1989—2018年张家界人居环境及子系统的发展水平,总体上,人居环境质量持续提升,向旅游城市复合空间转变;生态系统逐步优化,雨涝灾害较频繁;生产系统向旅游业转型,易受重大事件影响;生活系统全面升级,生活水平及基础设施改善明显。③ 依据HP滤波分析,将张家界人居环境演变划分为“介入-分化-调控-共生”阶段,并梳理了三大系统的演化路径。④ 从内外驱动角度,提炼了包含市场需求、旅游资源、宏观环境、政策推动及自组织反应行为在内的五大驱动因素的作用机理,结合VAR模型,从长短期两个方面,量化各因素与人居环境质量之间的动态关系。最后,针对张家界人居环境现有情况,从“三生”视角提出几点普适性建议。     

基于主客观比较视角的乡村人居环境建设适配性评价——以江汉平原公安县为例

乡村人居环境是农户日常生产生活据以展开的设施及条件,基于主客观比较视角的乡村人居环境适配性评价是践行“以人民为中心”的发展思想和统筹推进乡村振兴的客观要求。论文立足江汉平原公安县乡村抽样调查和访谈数据,以乡村生活空间可及性解析环境供给水平,以居民生活条件满意度解译农户需求意愿,以乡村人居环境适配性解构供需差异,据此提出乡村人居环境优化方向及路径。结果显示：2017年案例区乡村生活空间可及性聚集分布最大值为44.75%,隶属“中类”,以就业空间与休闲空间可及性最为薄弱;乡村居民生活条件满意度聚集分布最大值为0.467,隶属“中类”,其中农村自然环境与经济运行环境的满意度评价最低。主观需求与客观供给适配性在县域尺度和农户个体尺度均呈“中—中”类型适配模式,但在不同尺度的不同维度表现出差异性。研究结果可为案例地区及相似地域乡村人居环境建设与乡村振兴提供科学依据。