西部省会城市新型城镇化水平综合测度研究

新型城镇化是中国经济社会健康、稳定、可持续发展的根本途径,也是消除中国城乡社会经济"二元结构"的根本出路。根据新型城镇化的内涵,从人口、经济发展、生活质量、基础设施、资源环境、城乡统筹6个方面,构建了包含24项指标的新型城镇化水平综合测度指标体系,运用熵值法,对西部11个省会城市2005—2015年的城镇化发展水平进行综合测度。研究表明:西部省会城市的新型城镇化发展水平存在显著差异,总体上可分为"高等水平"、"中等水平"、"低等水平"3个级别,基础设施建设是造成差异的主要驱动力。各城市不同年间的城镇化单项水平影响因素呈现多元化,在今后的发展中应有所侧重,同时兼顾城镇化质量,推动城乡协调发展。     

江苏淤泥质潮滩对海平面变化的形态响应

通过对江苏滨海平原淤泥质潮滩1980年以来19个固定潮滩断面112个测次滩面高程测量的统计分析，探讨典型淤泥质潮滩剖面形态对海平面变化的形态响应过程。结果表明，典型淤涨岸段海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面仍将淤积加高，但淤高幅度除多年平均高潮线附近滩面相对较大外，其余均较小，表明随海平面上升该滩带总体淤积速率将趋于减小；与此相反，多年平均潮位线以下滩面则趋于蚀低，且侵蚀强度较大，表明该滩带的侵蚀有加剧趋向，最终滩面总体形态将因上带不断淤高和下带不断蚀低而逐渐变陡，剖面上凸形态的曲率不断加大。曲型侵蚀岸段，海平面上升的效应则相反，海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面强烈蚀低；而多年平均潮位线以下滩面则强烈淤积加高，剖面的上凹形态最终将因上带不断蚀低和下带不断淤高而趋于平直。     

A morphological investigation of marine transgression in estuaries

The landscape setting of estuaries varies widely and is an important aspect of determining how they evolve. This paper focusses on alluvial estuaries in river valleys and how they respond to sea level rise. We examine the implications of marine transgression, as a response to sea level rise, where the estuary moves upwards and landwards to maintain its position in the tidal frame (so-called stratigraphic rollover). Here we encapsulate such kinematic movement of the estuary morphology using a ‘morphokinematic’ model, to assess the potential response to sea level rise and sediment supply. The model of the estuary form includes a single convergent channel, intertidal and surrounding floodplains (the valley) and allows the relative importance of the space available for deposition of sediments, the accommodation space, to be investigated as a function of rates of sea level rise and sediment supply. The transgression of the system is determined using a sediment mass balance, taking account of any supply from the river and marine environment. Model results confirm that the transgression distance, measured as the distance the entity moves landward, varies in proportion to the change in accommodation space, which mainly depends on the floodplain area. As the size of the floodplain reduces, the transgression distance is less and the system becomes much more sensitive to changes in the rate of sea level rise or changes in sediment supply. The greater demand for sediment when a floodplain is present results in greater cannibalization of the estuary form (i.e. greater landward movement) to meet the sediment demand. When the floodplain is disconnected from the estuary, the synergistic relationship is lost and the accommodation space increases. The capacity for restoration will depend on the availability of sediment and the prevailing rate of sea level rise.     

利用GPS水准点精化局部CQG2000

CQG2000模型的精度仍不能满足中、大比例尺的测图需要,如何充分利用现有成果,提高其价值和实用性,是目前需要迫切解决的问题。本文提出了通过加密GPS水准点来提高现有CQG2000精度的方法,并研究了GPS水准点数目和分布对提高结果的影响。     

川西新场气田蓬莱镇组陆相地层高分辨率层序地层学研究

利用钻井岩芯、测井和地震资料 ,运用高分辨率层序地层学理论及方法 ,对新场地区蓬莱镇组进行不同级次的基准面旋回层序划分 ,识别出 45～ 47个短期、5个中期、2个长期基准面旋回层序 ,并对不同级次的基准面旋回层序的结构类型、叠加样式和平面分布模式进行了较为深入的讨论。在单井分析的基础上 ,以二分时间单元分界线为优选等时对比标志对不同级次的基准面旋回进行了较高精度的等时对比 ,所对比的等时成因地层单元的最高精度可达到相当准层序组 (十万年级 )的短期基准面旋回。建立了新场地区蓬莱镇组高分辨率层序地层格架 ,成功地将单井一维信息转化为气田范围内的三维地层关系信息。并分析了短期基准面旋回过程中可容纳空间 (A)与沉积物补给通量 (S)的比值 (A/S)变化对储集砂体的作用 .文中还利用沉积动力学的地层响应过程特征分析 ,重点讨论了中、短期基准面旋回过程中有利储集砂体的沉积相序列、组合特征、产状类型、控制因素及其与物性的关系。指出发育于长期基准面缓慢上升或下降过程中的三角洲沉积体系 ,为形成储集砂体的必备背景条件 ,而控制沉积体系中储层时空展布和演化规律的因素则主要为中期基准面旋回。在层序地层格架中 ,中期基准面旋回层序界面两侧的储层其储集性最好。以此为依据 ,提     

松南海坨子—大布苏地区泉四段— 姚家组层序地层研究

根据工区内现有的钻井、测井和地震资料,应用以多级次基准面旋回为参照面的高分辨层序地层学理论与研究方法,对松辽盆地南部海坨子—大布苏地区的泉四段—姚家组地层进行了详细的层序地层研究,共识别出5个长期基准面旋回（相当于三级层序）,9个中期基准面旋回（相当于四级层序）,建立了研究区的层序划分方案,在连井剖面的层序地层对比基础上,建立了该区的地层格架,并对层序构成特征进行了分析,研究了储集层在层序格架内的分布规律,揭示出浊积砂体和三角洲前缘相的分流河道形成于基准面上升期,三角洲前缘相的河口坝、远砂坝和席状砂沉积形成于基准面下降期,指出浊积砂体和三角洲前缘相的远砂坝、席状砂沉积是研究区形成岩性油气藏的有利储集体。     

Brest sea level record: a time series construction back to the early eighteenth century

The completeness and the accuracy of the Brest sea level time series dating from 1807 make it suitable for long-term sea level trend studies. New data sets were recently discovered in the form of handwritten tabulations, including several decades of the eighteenth century. Sea level observations have been made in Brest since 1679. This paper presents the historical data sets which have been assembled so far. These data sets span approximately 300 years and together constitute the longest, near-continuous set of sea level information in France. However, an important question arises: Can we relate the past and the present-day records? We partially provide an answer to this question by analysing the documents of several historical libraries with the tidal data using a ‘data archaeology’ approach advocated by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b). A second question arises concerning the accuracy of such records. Careful editing was undertaken by examining the residuals between tidal predictions and observations. It proved useful to remove the worst effects of timing errors, in particular the sundial correction to be applied prior to August 1, 1714. A refined correction based on sundial literature [Savoie, La gnomique, Editions Les Belles Lettres, Paris, 2001] is proposed, which eliminates the systematic offsets seen in the discrepancies in timing of the sea level measurements. The tidal analysis has also shown that shallow-water tidal harmonics at Brest causes a systematic difference of 0.023 m between mean sea level (MSL) and mean tide level (MTL). Thus, MTL should not be mixed with the time series of MSL because of this systematic offset. The study of the trends in MTL and MSL however indicates that MTL can be used as a proxy for MSL. Three linear trend periods are distinguished in the Brest MTL time series over the period 1807–2004. Our results support the recent findings of Holgate and Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett) of an enhanced coastal sea level rise during the last decade compared to the global estimations of about 1.8 mm/year over longer periods (Douglas, J Geophys Res 96:6981–6992, 1991). The onset of the relatively large global sea level trends observed in the twentieth century is an important question in the science of climate change. Our findings point out to an ‘inflexion point’ at around 1890, which is remarkably close to that in 1880 found in the Liverpool record by Woodworth (Geophys Res Lett 26:1589–1592, 1999b).     

云南银(铅)-锌矿开发史料与找矿探讨

云南是银铅锌矿开发较早的省份之一，史料丰富。本文从史料的角度，阐述了与云南古代有关银（铅）－锌矿的开发概况，基本特点以及如何保护，继承这份丰富的历史遗产，进而对目前有关史料的研究和古代采矿遗址清理情况进行分析，提出今后找矿的一些想法。     

大渡河瀑布沟水库红岩子滑坡变形特征与机理分析

库水涨落常诱发库岸滑坡变形破坏。为了研究库岸滑坡的变形特征及变形机理,以大渡河瀑布沟水电站红岩子滑坡为对象,通过详细的地表宏观变形调查和对监测数据的深入分析,结合GeoStudio数值模拟,深入研究了该滑坡的变形特征、渗流场、稳定性及库水对滑坡的作用机理。结果表明：红岩子滑坡地表宏观变形显著,累计位移曲线呈“阶跃”式特征,库水下降是滑坡变形的主要诱发因素;库水位由850 m高水位集中下降至830 m以下时,位移阶跃启动,“阶跃”段的累计变形量占全年总变形量的90%以上,当库水位下降速率大于0.5 m/d时,滑坡加速变形;滑坡变形模式为蠕滑-拉裂,库水升降导致滑体内部渗透力的变化,对滑坡稳定性影响很大,引发滑坡“阶跃”变形。     

基于多指标综合指数的灾害性天气过程预评估方案

通过分析给出了一种基于多指标综合指数的灾害性天气过程预评估方案,提出预估应包含对灾害性天气过程本身程度预估和灾害影响预估两个部分。通过建立综合指数来描述灾害性天气过程本身的程度,利用历史和实时气象资料对综合指数进行计算,分别对灾害性天气过程进行历史分析和实时监测;通过列表法,对收集的历史和实时灾害影响资料进行解析,综合指数中组合要素的差异,可用于分析灾害的不同特征;最后利用历史统计情景、相似指数年份类比和中短期预报等三种方案,对灾害性天气进程和影响发展程度进行预估。并以湖北省2008年初持续低温雨雪冰冻过程为例进行具体说明,此次过程综合指数值位居历史第二位,约70年一遇,直接经济损失超过110亿元,是1951年以来冬季损失最大的一次气象灾害。