青藏高原东北缘山地农户对气候变化的感知及适应策略——以湟水中游为例

以青藏高原东北缘山地地区不同海拔高度地理单元村落的农户为调查对象,进行气候变化、气象灾害的感知及适应策略等调查,采用感知强度公式及专家打分法分析农户气候变化感知以及所采用的适应策略,结果显示：1961—2013年湟水中游气候变化整体趋于暖干化,有84%的农户认为气候变暖,并对其生活造成了严重的影响;在不同海拔高度上的地理单元,农户对气象灾害的感知有明显差异,川水地区农户对沙尘的感知最强,浅山地区农户对虫害的感知最强,而脑山地区农户对连阴雨的感知最强;不同海拔高度的农户对适应策略的选择不同,川水地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性+保障性”组合适应策略;浅山地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性”组合适应策略;而脑山地区的农户则主要采取单一的“生产性”适应策略来应对气候变化所带来的影响。     

Integrating agriculture and energy to assess GHG emissions reduction: a methodological approach

Agriculture is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic global GHG emissions. This significant share highlights the fundamental importance of the agricultural sector in the global GHG emissions reduction challenge. This article develops and tests a methodology for the integration of agricultural and energy systems modelling. The goal of the research is to extend an energy systems modelling approach to agriculture in order to provide richer insights into the dynamics and interactions between the two (e.g. in competition for land-use). We build Agri-TIMES, an agricultural systems module using the TIMES energy systems modelling framework, to model the effect of livestock emissions and explore emissions reduction options. The research focuses on Ireland, which is an interesting test case for two reasons: first, agriculture currently accounts for about 30% of Ireland's GHG emissions, significantly higher than other industrialized countries yet comparable with global levels (here including emissions associated with other land-use change and forestation); second, Ireland is both a complete and reasonably sized agricultural system to act as a test case for this new approach. This article describes the methodology used, the data requirements, and technical assumptions made to facilitate the modelling. It also presents results to illustrate the approach and provide associated initial insights.

Policy relevance

Most of the policy focus with regard to climate mitigation targets has been on reducing energy-related CO₂ emissions, which is understandable as they represent by far the largest source of emissions. Non-energy-related GHG emissions – largely from agriculture, industrial processes, and waste – have received significantly less attention in policy discourse. Going forward, however, if significant cuts are made in energy-related CO₂ emissions, the role of non-energy-related GHG emissions will grow in importance. It is therefore crucial that climate mitigation analyses and strategies are not limited to the energy system. This article shows the value of using integrated energy and agriculture techno-economic modelling techniques to draw evidence for new comprehensive climate policy strategies able to discern between the full range of technical solutions available. It enables the production of economy-wide least-cost climate mitigation pathways.     

An index to assess maritime importance in the European Atlantic economy

Successive marine policies set by the European Union identify the maritime sectors as crucial drivers for growth and jobs in the EU economy. The design of marine policies and the assessment of the importance of the maritime economy need empirical support that provides the basic data to help the decision-making process. This paper proposes a metric, in the form of a synthetic index, to measure and compare the importance of the maritime sectors in the European Atlantic area. The index scores can be used to assess the position of each Atlantic region so that it is possible to compare its performance to the rest of the area. The results show the relative weight of the maritime sectors in the European Atlantic regions and the high heterogeneity among them. Analyzing the maritime economy with this index can provide guidance for the design of economic policies to identify and revitalize the regions with greater potential for Blue Growth in the Atlantic area. This may help to put into perspective the importance of the maritime economy and can serve to improve the socio-economic dimension of the use of marine waters.     

某公路软弱地基上的高填方路基开裂失效病害处治对策研究

以我国西南某高速公路软弱地基上的高填方路堤开裂失效病害实例作为研究对象,以病害现象反复发生反复处治、病害认识不断加深的历程作为基础:先是因为对软弱地基处理方式失当而在路堤填筑过程中产生了侧向滑移病害;后又因为对病害机制认识不准确,导致制定的治理方案处治病害不彻底,使得路堤重新填筑过程中再次产生了侧向滑移病害;然后,再次因为对病害机制的认识还是不到位,并且对治理方案作用机理的理解不透彻,导致了病害进一步加重而致使路堤不得不重新填筑。通过对病害发生、发展过程的再认识和再评估,对病害发生机制进行了较为深入的探究和论述,对未能达到预期的病害处治对策进行了总结和反省,提出了病害防治的应对策略和思路,形成了病害处治方案且经历了实践的验证。     

Town dwellers in their networks: urban-rural mobility and household strategies in Cameroon

Abstract

Urban-rural interactions are important features of spatial dynamics in Africa that have been affected by recent economic, social and cultural transformations. The attention of academics and policy-makers has concentrated on the impact of such mobility on rural actors and economies. Our objective is to consider the point of view of urban households and to analyse how they manage to develop and use their “rural connections”. The paper is based on in-depth qualitative fieldwork conducted in Cameroon, in Douala and Bafoussam. It presents an analysis of the configurations of urban resident mobility to rural regions. By mapping mobility we show the role of linkages with rural areas in urban household strategies. We also illustrate how a major city and a fast-growing secondary one differ in their connections with rural areas. The paper addresses what is one of the recurrent questions in the literature: will urban-rural linkages change in the long-term as the trend towards urbanization intensifies. Urban-rural mobility remains crucial, contributes to creating complex and dynamic networks. Collective connections are reaffirming the importance of the village and the region of origin. Mobility is a key element for many urban households in developing their urban position and strategies.     

东海带鱼种群动态管理与最优化开发策略

根据1960—1986年东海带鱼春夏汛和冬汛资料,提出了均匀渔捞死亡假设,推导出种群状态更新方程式,并应用状态变量法建立了东海带鱼的随机动态系统模型;在此基础上以随机动态规划理论计算了东海带鱼资源在不稳定补充条件下的最优化开发率和限额捕捞量,并模拟预测了带鱼最优化策略的效应。     

Sex change and morphological transitions in a marine ectoparasite

The fitness of parasitic organisms is strongly driven by their ability to infect potential hosts. Although transmission to a host organism is a key component to the parasitic lifestyle, surviving and reproducing within a host poses additional challenges. Cymothoa excisa is a parasitic isopod that infects Atlantic croaker, Micropogonias undulatus, along the Texas coast and has evolved mechanisms to successfully survive and reproduce within its host. Cymothoa excisa is known to exhibit sex‐change strategies but limited information exists on morphological changes, reproductive output and the timing at which sex change becomes optimal. This study collected Atlantic croaker during a 22‐month survey period and identified parasite prevalence and intensity in the host fish population. Infection rates were constant throughout the year at 19.88% and intensity increased through the season up to a maximum of four parasites. Following collection, isopod morphological parameters were quantified for each life stage (including female, transitional, male and juvenile), identifying shape and size transitions through ontogeny and sex change. Transitional C. excisa isopods only occurred when only one isopod was present in a fish, suggesting that isopods change sex from male to female if they are the first to recruit to an uninfected host. As isopods transition to females they have a large increase in size, legs, and pleotelson (which influence fecundity and anchoring ability), whereas the gonopod, eyes and uropod show a reduction (which are no longer needed for swimming and finding hosts). Data suggest that C. excisa sex change is related to the timing of infection and brood size increases with female size and host size. Therefore, it would be advantageous to be the first isopod to infect a host, as it could change into a female and increase reproductive potential. We discuss hypotheses that could explain the mating behavior of parasitic isopods.