川南S8滑坡体不稳定现象分析与防治

S8滑坡体后壁出露有新鲜滑动面，两侧呈双沟同源，坡体出现大量裂缝，前缘缓慢推移等，充分说明该滑坡体正处于不稳定状态。主要原因是：季节性洪水侵蚀滑坡体，前缘出现了临空面，使前缘支撑作用减弱；滑坡体内裂隙发育，裂隙水动力作用使滑动面抗滑能力降低；邻近采煤区造成的采动裂隙增加了水动力作用。该滑坡体裂隙丰富，保水性差，不利于植物生长；滑坡体边缘不断垮塌造成水土流失，沉积物淤塞下游河谷。防治措施有：在滑坡体后壁修筑排水沟，关闭邻近小煤窑，在前缘冲沟里构筑堡坎以减小水侵蚀作用；在冲沟里构筑拦砂埂，抬高沟底阻止切向侵蚀，以稳定滑坡体前缘。     

Analysis of formation pressure test results in the Mount Elbert methane hydrate reservoir through numerical simulation

Targeting the methane hydrate (MH) bearing units C and D at the Mount Elbert prospect on the Alaska North Slope, four MDT (Modular Dynamic Formation Tester) tests were conducted in February 2007. The C2 MDT test was selected for history matching simulation in the MH Simulator Code Comparison Study. Through history matching simulation, the physical and chemical properties of the unit C were adjusted, which suggested the most likely reservoir properties of this unit. Based on these properties thus tuned, the numerical models replicating “Mount Elbert C2 zone like reservoir”, “PBU L-Pad like reservoir” and “PBU L-Pad down dip like reservoir” were constructed. The long term production performances of wells in these reservoirs were then forecasted assuming the MH dissociation and production by the methods of depressurization, combination of depressurization and wellbore heating, and hot water huff and puff. The predicted cumulative gas production ranges from 2.16 × 10⁶ m³/well to 8.22 × 10⁸ m³/well depending mainly on the initial temperature of the reservoir and on the production method.This paper describes the details of modeling and history matching simulation. This paper also presents the results of the examinations on the effects of reservoir properties on MH dissociation and production performances under the application of the depressurization and thermal methods.     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming

本文利用8个CMIP5模式的日资料,预估了RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全球增温达1.5℃和2.0℃时西北太平洋夏季30～60天和10～20天季节内振荡(ISO)强度的变化情况.大多数模式都认为,无论增温水平或情景如何,预估结果均显示从中南半岛南部到菲律宾以东的带状区域内ISO强度增加,并且关键气象要素背景的变化会对...     

基于叠前深度偏移的AVO反演在神狐海域试采区的应用

为了更好地研究神狐海域试采区天然气水合物的展布形态和赋存状况,基于高精度层析速度反演后的叠前深度偏移地震资料进行AVO反演技术研究。为在天然气水合物富集区有效地进行AVO研究,AVO处理前运用叠前深度偏移技术,通过高精度层析反演不断迭代速度模型;然后通过偏移来改善资料的质量,结合实测钻井资料进行AVO正演分析、反演可行性分析、属性交会分析;最后将具有高横向分辨能力的地震资料和高垂向分辨能力的测井资料与地质相结合进行叠前同时反演。该方法可反演出纵、横波阻抗等属性,直接进行岩性和流体识别,结果表明,在AVO反演中引入叠前深度偏移技术,为反演提供了较高质量的叠前共反射点道集和精细的层速度模型,改善了AVO技术在试采区的应用效果,提高了反演的可靠性。反演出的各种属性为AVO分析提供了丰富的信息,能够比较准确地反映地下水合物矿体的展布情况,可用于后续水合物储层的分析及综合研究,对未来的水合物勘探开采具有重要的现实意义。     

Evaluating a process‐based model for use in streambank stabilization: insights on the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM)

Streambank retreat is a complex cyclical process involving subaerial processes, fluvial erosion, seepage erosion, and geotechnical failures and is driven by several soil properties that themselves are temporally and spatially variable. Therefore, it can be extremely challenging to predict and model the erosion and consequent retreat of streambanks. However, modeling streambank retreat has many important applications, including the design and assessment of mitigation strategies for stream revitalization and stabilization. In order to highlight the current complexities of modeling streambank retreat and to suggest future research areas, this paper reviewed one of the most comprehensive streambank retreat models available, the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), which has recently been integrated with several popular hydrodynamic and sediment transport models including the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC‐RAS). The objectives of this paper were to: (i) comprehensively review studies that have utilized BSTEM and report their findings, (ii) address the limitations of the model so that it can be applied appropriately in its current form, and (iii) suggest directions of research that will help make the model a more useful tool in future applications. The paper includes an extensive overview of peer reviewed studies to guide future users of BSTEM. The review demonstrated that the model needs further testing and evaluation outside of the central United States. Also, further development is needed in terms of accounting for spatial and temporal variability in geotechnical and fluvial erodibility parameters, incorporating subaerial processes, and accounting for the influence of riparian vegetation on streambank pore‐water pressure dynamics, applied shear stress, and erodibility parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大数据时代的国土资源档案创新管理研究

在大数据时代,以广东省国土资源档案集群服务平台建设为例,以“档案数据大集中、应用系统大集群、档案服务大平台”为总体工作思路,提出了“一个中心,两个集群、三个统一、四位一体”的国土档案管理一揽予解决方案,并对基于大数据的国土资源档案知识服务进行了初步研究,为我国国土资源档案行业在大数据时代信息化建设提供极具实践意义的经验。     

ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF NON-LINEAR SOIL RESPONSE AND DYNAMIC SOIL PROPERTIES USING VERTICAL ARRAY DATA IN JAPAN

Non-linear response of the soil is investigated by comparing the spectral ratios (uphole/downhole) using weak and strong motions. Data from seven vertical arrays in Japan are analysed in this study. The frequency-dependent transfer function of soil is calculated as a ratio of the spectrum at uphole to the spectrum at downhole, considering the horizontal component of shear wave. In spectral ratio analysis auto- and cross-spectra are employed. The reduction in the predominant frequency of the transfer function with increases in excitation level reflects the non-linear response of the soil. Results of analysis demonstrate a significant non-linear ground response at six sites with surface PGA exceeding 90 gal. However, the results of one site show the linear response up to 130 gal surface PGA. Furthermore, the in situ strain-dependent soil behaviour is examined through the shear modulus – shear strain relationship. When compared, the actual and laboratory results of the shear strain – shear modulus relationship are in agreement. Additionally, a good consistency between the tendency of reduction in shear modulus ratio with shear strain increases, and reduction of predominant frequency with ground motion increases, confirms the significance of non-linearity in site effects study.     

重磁异常正反演可视化实时方法技术改进

摘 要 给出了2∙5D 多边形截面棱柱体重磁异常的简化表达式及其偏导数;提供了实用的可 视化模型建立、修改、实时正反演中的一些具体方法技术。借助这一操作方便、功能强大的 图形化实时反演系统‚资料解释工作者可以综合利用各种地质资料对计算过程实现引导和控 制‚使其解释思想及技术方案得到充分体现‚从而提高计算速度和质量。