Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method

A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures.     

Age and origin of laterite and silcrete duricrusts and their relationship to episodic tectonism in the mid‐north of South Australia∗

Differential earth movements occurred during Eocene, Miocene, and late Caino‐zoic times. The faulting formed basins of sedimentation, led to dissection of land‐surfaces in some localities and burial in others, and faulted the Cainozoic sediments.

Laterite and silcrete cap remnants of relict landsurfaces of two different ages. Laterite formed before the Eocene; it was faulted and dissected during the Eocene in the north but continued to develop until the Miocene in the south. Silcrete formed from Eocene to Miocene times; its dissection was promoted by late Cainozoic tectonism.

Since laterite and silcrete formed on the same strata in warm, very moist environments, lithology and climate are not important genetic factors causing laterite to form at one time and silcrete at another. Only base levels of erosion differed. The silcrete surface was largely developed by streams flowing into mid‐Cainozoic lacustrine basins, whereas there is no evidence that these drainage conditions prevailed for laterite formation.     

西藏冈底斯西段狮多地区火山岩的地质地球化学特征

西藏冈底斯西段狮多地区火山岩为一套高钾钙碱性和钙碱性系列岩石,分为古新世(59 7Ma)和中新世(17 2Ma)两个活动时期,早期的时代和层位大致相当于冈底斯东段的林子宗群典中组。与典中组火山岩相比较,该期火山岩的稀土元素总量(w(∑REE)=58 83×10-6)低得多,轻、重稀土分馏程度(w(La)N/w(Yb)N=3 44)较弱,分布曲线更为平缓;N(143Nd)/N(144Nd)的现在值(0 512275～0 512420)和初始值εNd(t)(-6 7～-4 0)也明显偏低,这反映冈底斯东、西段同一时期的火山活动及演化各具特色。根据Pb、Nd、Sr同位素的组成特征和微量元素构造环境判别推断,狮多地区火山岩形成于陆缘弧—陆 陆碰撞造山的发展演化环境,是新特提斯洋壳向大陆下俯冲作用过渡到陆 陆碰撞造山作用的产物。狮多铁 铜矿与古新世火山岩有成因联系。     

关于太古宙—元古宙界线的新认识

２５００Ｍａ作为太古宙－元古宙界线的提议被２８届国际地质大会通过，但并不意味着２５００Ｍａ作为太古宙－元古宙界线是永恒的最佳选择。事实上，太古宙－元古宙界线划在何处还存在很多争论，现行的界线划分依据也期分期标准相悖。大量资料表明），２３００Ｍａ时曾发生全球地质环境的灾变，灾变前后的地质作用（尤其是表生地质作用），有明显变化，导致了太古宙与元古宙的一系列差别。该灾变与元古宙－显生宙，古生代－中生代，     

Soft‐sediment deformation structures in a Pleistocene glaciolacustrine delta and their implications for the recognition of subenvironments in delta deposits

The development of soft‐sediment deformation structures in clastic sediments is now reasonably well‐understood but their development in various deltaic subenvironments is not. A sedimentological analysis of a Pleistocene (ca 13·1 to 15 ¹⁰Be ka) Gilbert‐type glaciolacustine delta with gravity‐induced slides and slumps in the Mosty‐Danowo tunnel valley (north‐western Poland) provides more insight, because the various soft‐sediment deformation structures in these deposits were considered in the context of their specific deltaic subenvironment. The sediments show three main groups of soft‐sediment deformation structures in layers between undeformed sediments. The first group consists of deformed cross‐bedding (inclined, overturned, recumbent, complex and sheath folds), large‐scale folds (recumbent and sheath folds) and pillows forming plastic deformations. The second group comprises pillar structures (isolated and stress), clastic dykes with sand volcanoes and clastic megadykes as examples of water‐escape structures. The third group consists of faults (normal and reverse) and extensional fissures (small fissures and neptunian dykes). Some of the deformations developed shortly after deposition of the deformed sediment, other structures developed later. This development must be ascribed to hydroplastic movement in a quasi‐solid state, and due to fluidization and liquefaction of the rapidly deposited, water‐saturated deltaic sediments. The various types of deformations were triggered by: (i) a high sedimentation rate; (ii) erosion (by wave action or meltwater currents); and (iii) ice‐sheet loading and seasonal changes in the ablation rate. Analysis of these triggers, in combination with the deformational mechanisms, have resulted – on the basis of the spatial distribution of the various types of soft‐sediment deformation structures in the delta under study – in a model for the development of soft‐sediment deformation structures in the topsets, foresets and bottomsets of deltas. This analysis not only increases the understanding of the deformation processes in both modern and ancient deltaic settings but also helps to distinguish between the various subenvironments in ancient deltaic deposits.     

基于剖面三维地质建模方法及在本溪地区应用

针对成矿带三维地质建模面临的实际问题,以GOCAD软件作为三维建模工具,阐述了基于剖面的三维地质建模流程与方法.为了充分揭示本溪地区深部地质情况及隐伏铁矿的发育情况,采用基于剖面的三维地质建模方法构建了本溪地区907km2的三维地质模型,获取了本溪地区地下三维地质结构,显示出该地区盖层发育宽缓褶皱,断裂切割作用强烈,基底最大埋深可达4200 m,在变质基底埋深较浅的地区,具有很大的铁矿资源勘探潜力.实际应用情况表明,基于剖面的三维地质建模方法符合地质研究从二维到三维的工作流程和思维习惯,是一种有效的成矿带三维建模方法.     

浅析福建寒武系林田组地质特征及其经济意义

福建寒武纪地层分布较广,以西部发育良好,东部零星出露.按岩性组合及层位关系,划分为早-晚寒武世林田组,末寒武世东坑口组.其中林田组为福建境内的重晶石及铅锌银多金属矿的重要含矿层位.通过对林田组特征研究,并对其含矿性分析,为今后在该地层中寻找同类矿床提供参考.     

层次分析法(AHP)在三江平原地质环境质量评价中的应用

应用层次分析法(AHP)对影响三江平原环境地质质量的岩石、土壤和水3个子系统分别进行评价,通过分析影响各子系统的主要因子,建立子系统层次结构模型和质量指数数学模型,得出各子系统的质量指数,从而评价出各个子系统的质量状况。在此基础上,建立地质环境系统质量评价的层次结构模型和数学模型,计算出地质环境质量指数,并对该地区的质量状况进行评价,得出三江地区总体环境地质状况是好的结论。     

福建东山坑北复式岩体的地质特征及其变质变形作用

在平潭—东山构造带南段深变质的东亚带和浅变质的西亚带的过渡带．出露一套变质变形特征极其复杂的动力变质岩系。其主体是一个由早侏罗世、晚侏罗世及晚侏罗世—早白垩世石英闪长岩、花岗闪长岩、二长花岗岩、正长花岗岩等组成的坑北复式岩体。该岩体可划分6个基本单元，并与区域上同时代侵入岩的谱系单位划分进行对比，归并为东山序列、古美山、漳浦超单元。该区发育三期韧-(脆)性变形及动力变质作用。据R1-R2图解及巴尔巴林岩浆构造分类．坑北复式岩体中各超单元(单元)侵入岩分别形成于不同的构造环境。     

福建浦城上厂钼矿床地质特征及成因初探

浦城上厂钼矿床产于北北西和北东向2组断裂交汇处,矿体总体呈北北东向长椭圆状小岩株,长轴方向呈北东18,°长约800 m,宽约230 m。成矿与燕山晚期中偏酸性斑岩体密切相关,为斑岩型钼矿床。