基于SHALSTAB模型的地质灾害易发性动态评价

为解决东部沿海地区台风暴雨型地质灾害易发性问题,基于浙江飞云江流域地质灾害调查成果,利用频率比及信息量模型选取相对高差、坡向、坡形、工程地质岩组、断层、地表覆盖类型、稳定性(SHALSTAB模型)7个背景因子,采用层次分析法确定各因子权重,考虑无降雨和百年一遇极端降雨两种工况,运用综合指数法对浙江飞云江流域进行地质灾害易发性评价。结果表明:该模型是致灾土体分布区定量模型和基岩区统计模型的结合,符合该区域成灾规律。考虑极端降雨因素后,易发等级逐次增加,高易发区面积增加84%,中易发区面积增加42.8%,可实现地质灾害易发性在不同工况下的动态评价。     

珠穆朗玛峰地区新构造运动与环境地质灾害

研究区新构造运动强烈,环境地质灾害频繁,差异上升运动明显．除第四纪色龙盆地、定日盆地表现为相对下降外,其余均表现为上升,反映在环境地质灾害上,山洪、泥石流在雨季经常毁坏盆地内的公路。冰川后退形成的多达4级冰积埠阶地,佩枯错水面从67．9万年(P．B．)到12．6万年(P．B．)下降速率为0．021mm／a,从12．0万年(P．B．)到1．8万年(P．B．)下降速率为0．067mm／a,有加速下降的趋势,附近草地沙化严重,说明藏南面临十分严重的干旱形势,这可能与二氧化碳的过度排放、臭氧层变薄和温室效应等有关。雨季,第四纪盆地易发生洪流、泥石流等自然灾害;在珠穆朗玛峰和希夏邦马峰则容易产生雪崩。旅游、登山要避开7、8月份。     

On safe ground? Analysis of European urban geohazards using satellite radar interferometry

Urban geological hazards involving ground instability can be costly, dangerous, and affect many people, yet there is little information about the extent or distribution of geohazards within Europe’s urban areas. A reason for this is the impracticality of measuring ground instability associated with the many geohazard processes that are often hidden beneath buildings and are imperceptible to conventional geological survey detection techniques. Satellite radar interferometry, or InSAR, offers a remote sensing technique to map mm-scale ground deformation over wide areas given an archive of suitable multi-temporal data. The EC FP7 Space project named PanGeo (2011–2014), used InSAR to map areas of unstable ground in 52 of Europe’s cities, representing ∼15% of the EU population. In partnership with Europe’s national geological surveys, the PanGeo project developed a standardised geohazard-mapping methodology and recorded 1286 instances of 19 types of geohazard covering 18,000 km². Presented here is an analysis of the results of the PanGeo-project output data, which provides insights into the distribution of European urban geohazards, their frequency and probability of occurrence. Merging PanGeo data with Eurostat’s GeoStat data provides a systematic estimate of population exposures. Satellite radar interferometry is shown to be as a valuable tool for the systematic detection and mapping of urban geohazard phenomena.     

瞬变电磁与电阻率测深在沙午铁路采空区勘查中的应用

沙午铁路某段受铁矿采空区影响,出现地面塌陷下沉.以瞬变电磁为主要技术方法对该段铁路沿线及周围进行勘查,采用电阻率测深加强铁路沿线勘探,查明了采空区的分布位置、范围以及空间特征等,提高了准确性,取得了良好效果.勘探成果可为地面安全和采空区治理提供可靠的技术支持,为铁路安全运营提供保障.     

Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.     

四川省地质灾害防治能力建设现状与对策研究

加强突发地质灾害的应急防治能力建设,切实提高各级地质环境监测站地质灾害防治能力建设水平,是完善我省地质环境管理体系,确保各级政府提高地质环境管理工作决策水平和效率的先决条件。通过对四川地质灾害防治工作面临的严峻形势以及各级地质环境监测站能力建设现状的分析,结合经济社会发展以及地质环境管理工作的实际,提出了加强地质灾害防治能力建设的对策及措施建议。     

基于海洋灾害地质评价基础上的我国近海海底稳定性区划

通过对我国近海灾害地质类型的分析、评价进而进行海底稳定性区划研究,旨在反映近海地质环境对人类工程活动的适宜程度。文中提出了海底稳定性评价的概念,构建了以地震动、工程地质、地貌、直接型灾害地质类型和限制型灾害地质类型为主要评价指标的海底稳定性评价指标体系,并利用层次分析法确定了各评价指标权重值;将我国近海海底划分为6′×6′的网格单元,并以近海海底灾害地质图、地震动峰值加速度区划图和地貌图等矢量化图层为数据源,建立了模糊评价模型并对近海海底稳定性进行了定量评价。在此基础上将我国近海海底区域稳定性从稳定到不稳定划分为五级。     

Artificial Neural Networks and Grey Systems for the Prediction of Slope Stability

The interactions between factors that affect slope instability are complex, multi-factorial, and often difficult to describe mathematically, imposing a challenge for prediction using traditional methods. The power of the ANN and Grey Systems approaches lies in employing the behaviour of the system rather than knowledge of explicit relations. Published data has been used to illustrate the application of these techniques to predicting the state of slope stability. This has been developed into a tool for analysing and predicting future ground movement based on geotechnical properties and historical behaviour.     

喀斯特地质灾害的形成条件及其环境背景--以贵州省为例

贵州喀斯特环境地质灾害类型多样、分布广泛、发性强，其发生、发育过程不但具有明显的季节性，且具有同步叠加、连续发生及交替出现等特点；地质灾害的危害程度、暴发频率也在逐年增大。其形成过程主要受岩性、地貌、灾害性降水和人类经济等条件影响。地球内动力地质作用决定了喀斯特地质灾害的环境背景，如广布的碳酸盐岩和陡峻的地貌特征等。特别是挽近期的构造运动对近、现代地质灾害具有明显的控制作用；人为活动改变了岩（土）体的平衡状态而导致环境地质灾害发生。     

水库地区的水岩作用及其地质环境影响

本文综述了水库地区水环境系统的变化及水岩作用类型和机制, 在此基础上讨论了水库区地质环境的变化和环境灾害的发生, 提出以水环境变化和水岩作用为中心的水库地质环境评价和灾害预测的研究方向。