中国东北地区林地面积变化的动态模拟

There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000–2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and making out the planning for forestry production in the Northeast China region.     

非贯通节理岩体直剪试验研究进展

基于典型的直剪试验,国内外学者提出了非贯通节理岩体贯通破坏机理,并建立了相应的强度准则,如Jennings方法,即加权平均强度理论和强度准则、Lajtai岩桥破坏理论和强度准则、断裂力学的II型破坏理论和强度准则,拉剪复合破坏和强度准则。然而,非贯通节理岩体破坏机理目前还没有完全弄清楚,已建立的强度准则所包含的重要参数还需深入研究,如：如节理面的传压系数、传剪系数、弱化了的岩桥内摩擦力和内摩擦角等;非贯通节理岩体节理闭合和剪切的本构关系有待建立;不共面非贯通节理岩体全过程最大抗剪强度需进一步研究。伺服直剪试验机、静态应变测试仪、声发射仪、X射线测量等无损检测技术能够为进一步研究非贯通节理岩体的破坏机理,提出新的理论和建立新的强度准则提供强有力的技术支持。     

Seismic isolation analysis of FPS bearings in spatial lattice shell structures

<正>A theoretical model of a friction pendulum system(FPS) is introduced to examine its application for the seismic isolation of spatial lattice shell structures.An equation of motion of the lattice shell with FPS bearings is developed.Then, seismic isolation studies are performed for both double-layer and single-layer lattice shell structures under different seismic input and design parameters of the FPS.The influence of frictional coefficients and radius of the FPS on seismic performance are discussed.Based on the study,some suggestions for seismic isolation design of lattice shells with FPS bearings are given and conclusions are made which could be helpful in the application of FPS.     

农户行为视角下的乡村生产空间系统运行机制及重构启示

农户行为转变是乡村生产空间系统量变或从量变到质变的重要驱动力,乡村生产空间系统的运行实质上是农户行为作用的外在表现,厘清农户行为可为诠释乡村生产空间系统的运行机制提供平台。本文在剖析农户行为转变与乡村生产空间系统运行响应的理论框架基础上,从农户行为转变和乡村生产空间系统响应入手构建指标体系,建立模糊综合评价量化模型,并以重庆市江津区恒和村作为实证,诠释乡村生产空间系统运行机制。主要研究结论为：不同农户行为对乡村生产空间系统运行的影响程度各异,大体为生产大户>合作社农户>传统农户;不同农户行为对系统运行响应结果的作用差异明显,生产大户行为主要影响乡村生产空间的利用效率,合作社农户行为对提升生产空间系统经济效益作用明显,传统农户行为对生产空间系统环境改善的贡献作用最小。并从经济、社会、空间重构视角提出发展多种形式的适度规模化经营、培育新型农业经营主体和职业农民、合理引导农户技术和资本投入等建议,以实现乡村生产空间系统协调与均衡发展。     

基于GIS的城市空间扩展预测

高速的城市扩展给社会发展带来了无比的活力。但是,也带来了一系列影响社会经济可持续发展的问题。因此,建立城市扩展预测模型对城市空间扩展预测有着实际的意义。本文主要是根据射线预测法的相关理论,使用Map Basic编程和Map Info软件进行相关操作,对济南市进行城市空间扩展预测并对预测进行分析,验证射线预测法的准确性。     

基于UML和面向对象方法的GIS应用模型设计与实现

应用分析模型是面向专业应用领域GIS的关键模块之一,其设计和实现应具备良好的可扩展性和可移植性,从而达到软件复用、降低系统维护成本的目标。采用面向对象方法,对辽宁省鞍山市地质灾害评价预警系统中地质灾害危险性区划分析模型模块进行分析和设计,提出分别封装表达地质灾害分析模型方法的抽象类(class CModel)、描述灾害评价因子的抽象类(class CFactor),以及描述灾害分析单元格的抽象类(class CGridLayer)的设计方案,达到模块划分的“高内聚、低耦合”要求,便于模块的修改和扩展。以描述单元格的抽象类(class CGridLayer)作为模块与GIS平台的中间层,面向模块屏蔽不同GIS平台的实现细节,使得模块具备良好的可移植性。最后,以MapGIS 6.5为平台,按上述设计方案构建鞍山市地质灾害评价预警系统并投入实际应用。     

A Warning System for Stromboli Volcano Based on Statistical Analysis

In this paper we describe a warning system based on statistical analysis for the purpose of monitoring ground deformation at the Sciara del Fuoco (Stromboli Volcano, Sicily). After a statistical analysis of ground deformation time-series measured at Stromboli by the monitoring system known as THEODOROS (THEOdolite and Distancemeter Robot Observatory of Stromboli), the paper describes the solution adopted for implementing the warning system. A robust statistical index has been defined in order to evaluate the movements of the area. A fuzzy approach has been proposed to evaluate an AI (Alarm Intensity) index which indicates the level of hazard of the Sciara del Fuoco sliding.     

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

近十年来长江口九段沙周边地貌演变GIS分析

长江口深水航道工程改变了长江口自然环境,导致周边水下地貌形态发生明显的变化。本文选取长江口九段沙周边浅滩区域作为研究区,搜集不同年份的海图资料,利用GIS技术进行地貌演变空间分析。分析发现：自2001年一期工程完工以来,九段沙周边浅滩总体处于稳定状态,冲淤空间分布特征明显;沿着南导堤堤坝泥沙淤积明显,导致南导堤北侧丁坝内形成淤积带,九段沙尾部沿着堤坝形成淤积带;江亚南沙下沙阻挡作用,使得上游来水在沙头处分流,在两股水流的作用下,九段沙西南侧分别形成两条平行的淤积带和冲刷带。     

Quantitative urban climate mapping based on a geographical database: A simulation approach using Hong Kong as a case study

The urban environment has been dramatically changed by artificial constructions. How the modified urban geometry affects the urban climate and therefore human thermal comfort has become a primary concern for urban planners. The present study takes a simulation approach to analyze the influence of urban geometry on the urban climate and maps this climatic understanding from a quantitative perspective. A geographical building database is used to characterize two widely discussed aspects: urban heat island effect (UHI) and wind dynamics. The parameters of the sky view factor (SVF) and the frontal area density (FAD) are simulated using ArcGIS-embedded computer programs to link urban geometry with the UHI and wind dynamic conditions. The simulated results are synergized and classified to evaluate different urban climatic conditions based on thermal comfort consideration. A climatic map is then generated implementing the classification. The climatic map shows reasonable agreement with thermal comfort understanding, as indicated by the biometeorological index of the physiological equivalent temperature (PET) obtained in an earlier study. The proposed climate mapping approach can provide both quantitative and visual evaluation of the urban environment for urban planners with climatic concerns. The map could be used as a decision support tool in planning and policy-making processes. An urban area in Hong Kong is used as a case study.