信息替换的均生函数主分量多步预测

提出随着时间的推移，用新信息取代旧信息的“限定记忆”的时间序列数据处理方法。且仅对均生函数外延矩阵的前Ｌ阶方阵作主分量分析，用数目较少又包含主要信息量的主分量因子对时间序列建模。该方案用于四川省２８个县市的年平均气温的多步预测值与实况值相对误差均在±４％以内，表明该方案用于气温多步预测是有效的。     

二连盆地洼槽分类及其油气勘探意义

二连盆地已发现56个凹陷和21个凸起,每个凹陷按腾一段地层沉积中心的分割性可划分为2~3个洼槽。为开展洼槽地质分类及其与生烃潜力的相关性研究,通过对10个含油凹陷23个洼槽的地质和地球化学资料统计分析,发现各洼槽的古生界基底顶面(T_g)最大埋深、洼槽面积、阿尔善组及腾一段沉积期间的古水体盐度分别对阿尔善组和腾一段两套烃源岩的最大总厚度及成熟度、面积、有机质丰度及类型存在控制作用。据此提出按照基底埋深、深洼带面积和阿尔善组及腾一段的古水体盐度特征将洼槽划分为高熟型、成熟型和低熟型3大类14小类。结合洼槽生烃潜力评价,认为富生烃洼槽总体属于高熟大中型洼槽和成熟大中型咸水洼槽,咸水洼槽具有更优越的源储条件,更有利于致密油勘探。由于高熟咸水洼槽在马尼特坳陷和乌兰察布坳陷更发育,在勘探选区上应优先考虑这两个坳陷内的洼槽。     

超大型海洋结构物海上安全运输绑扎件设计

绑扎件的制作及安装过程中,由于考虑的因素不够周全,或强度不够造成海难事故,或因设计过于保守而造成材料的浪费。根据具体工程项目,结合实际工程经验,对该类绑扎系统设计中应注意的关键问题进行了剖析,包括构件的结构形式及尺寸设置,绑扎系统布置以及构件尺寸与运输船甲板结构的关系,绑扎系统受力计算模型的简化以及结构物对同一组绑扎件构件之间连接的模拟等,并给出具体的工程实例。可为海洋结构物运输的绑扎系统设计以及完善或制订相关标准提供依据,并有助于提高驳船结构计算机辅助设计与强度分析的精度。     

三种基于均生函数的统计模型在厄尔尼诺预测中的应用

为了探究厄尔尼诺的预测方法,提高其预报准确度与预报时效,本文基于均生函数的基本原理,在普通均生函数模型中分别加入气候序列的本征模函数和预报因子变量,构建了基于EEMD(Ensemble EmpiricalModeDecomposition)的均生函数模型和多变量均生函数模型;并应用三种方案对NINO3区海温指数进行了预报试验。结果表明,两种改进模型对厄尔尼诺的预报效果好于普通均生函数模型,是提高预报准确度的有效手段;同时,利用统计的预报模型,可以在一定程度上有效延长厄尔尼诺的预报时效,具有一定实践意义。     

Study on TMD Control on Stability Improvement of Barge-Supported Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Based on the Multi-Island Genetic Algorithm

A floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) has a great potential in producing renewable energy as offshore wind resource is rich in deep sea area (water deeper than 60 m) where fixed foundations are cost-effective or deployable. However, compared with a fixed-bottom installation, FOWT has to suffer more extreme loads due to its extra degrees of freedom. Therefore, the stability of an FOWT is a key challenge in exploiting offshore deep-water wind. Focusing on the stability of barge-type FOWT, this paper is to investigate the effect of passive structural control by equipping a tuned mass damper (TMD) on the nacelle. The turbulent wind with sharp fluctuations is established both in velocity and inflow direction based on standard Kaimal turbulence spectrum as suggested in the standard IEC61400-2. The irregular wave is generated according to the Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum. The dynamic structural characteristics of FOWT are calculated based on the fully coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic solver FAST. Evidence has shown that the proposed method of the nacelle-based TMD is effective in controlling stability of an FOWT, as the sway and roll motions of barge and the side-side displacement of tower top decreased significantly. With the increase of mass, the side-side displacement of tower-top and the amplitude of roll motion of barge reveal a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The stiffness and damping have little effect. Furthermore, the multi-island genetic optimization algorithm (MIGA) is employed to find globally optimum structural parameters (mass, stiffness and damping) of the TMD. The optimum structure parameters of TMD are achieved when the mass is 21393 kg, damping is 13635 N/(m/s) and stiffness is 6828 N/m. By adopting the optimized TMD, stability of roll motion of barge and side-side displacement of tower-top increase up to 53% and 50% respectively when compared with the normal TMD. The simulation results verify the validity and reliability of the proposed TMD control and the optimization methods.     

三角形网格自动生成的一种快速算法

提出了一种三角形网格自动生成的快速算法:从边界点出发逐步向内部联网,不仅联网速度快,而且很容易处理凹边界。      

概化弯道段潮汐模型系统设计与制作

根据典型弯曲型河口段的宽浅边界形态、水力条件及潮汐特征,依据相似理论确定模型的基本几何及水力参数.分析了河工模型的最大允许变率,借助重力和紊动阻力相似准则确定模型的各项控制比尺.模型由上游延伸段、河道试验段与下游潮汐池组成.采用w形波纹凹槽方式加糙,使模型糙率达到了试验要求.实测资料验证显示了概化模型的合理性.     

具有二次可选服务反馈的可选单重休假M/G/1排队模型

研究了具有第二次可选服务且两次服务完均可以反馈的和可选单重休假M/G/1排队模型.通过补充变量法,首先建立了系统稳态下的状态转移方程,用概率母函数的方法求解得到了稳态下系统队长的概率母函数,进而求出系统稳态解存在的稳态条件和稳态下系统的平均队长和顾客在系统中的平均逗留时间.最后给出了稳态队长的随机分解定理.     

Investigation of ship hydroelasticity

The importance of hydroelastic analysis of large and flexible container ships of today is pointed out. A methodology for investigation of this challenging phenomenon is drawn up and a mathematical model is worked out. It includes definition of ship geometry, mass distribution, structure stiffness, and combines ship hydrostatics, hydrodynamics, wave load, ship motion and vibrations. Based on the presented theory, a computer program is developed and applied for hydroelastic analysis of a flexible segmented barge for which model test results of motion and distortion in waves have been available. A correlation analysis of numerical simulation and measured response shows quite good agreement of the transfer functions for heave, pitch, roll, vertical and horizontal bending and torsion. The tool checked in such a way can be further used for reliable hydroelastic analysis of ship-like structures.