An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

PROSPECTING EXPLORATION

正20141888 Feng Lingang(Geological Survey Institute of Inner Mongolia,Hohhot 010020,China)The Conversion between Maps of Different Coordinate Systems Based on MapGIS(Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration,ISSN1000-8918,CN11-1906/P,37(5),2013,p.934-936,2 illus.,2 tables,7 refs.) Key words:geodetic coordinates,digital cartography     

Comparative Analysis of the Generalized Omega Equation and Generalized Vertical Motion Equation

Research on vertical motion in mesoscale systems is an extraordinarily challenging effort. Allowing for fewer assumptions, a new form of generalized vertical motion equation and a generalized Omega equation are derived in the Cartesian coordinate system(nonhydrostatic equilibrium) and the isobaric coordinate system(hydrostatic equilibrium),respectively. The terms on the right-hand side of the equations, which comprise the Q vector, are composed of three factors:dynamic, thermodynamic, and mass. ...     

地形追随坐标系下埃特尔位涡的计算

随着数值天气预报模式的日益普及以及位涡在不同天气、气候时、空尺度上的广泛应用,对采用模式输出资料计算的埃特尔（Ertel）位涡的精度提出了更高要求。将气象要素从中尺度模式普遍采用的地形追随坐标系向定义位涡的z或p坐标系的插值过程（插值法）,是导致埃特尔位涡计算误差的主要原因。文中利用地形追随坐标系与z（p）坐标系的变换关系,导出了z坐标系定义的埃特尔位涡在地形追随坐标系中的表达形式,实现了直接在模式格点上计算埃特尔位涡（直接法）,在提高计算精度的同时,保留了其在z坐标系中的物理意义,方便了分析与应用。为了进一步分析直接法在减少计算误差方面的作用,使用WRF模式对2016年7月发生在华北地区复杂地形背景下的一次黄淮气旋爆发过程进行了模拟,利用模式输出资料对此次天气过程中强降水时段插值法计算误差的分布进行了分析。结果表明,利用直接法计算位涡可有效减少插值法引入的计算误差,中低层均方根误差可达0.5 PVU,中高层可达0.3 PVU。将其应用到中小尺度对流性天气精细化结构的分析及气候统计研究中,可以有效减少插值法误差对结果产生的不良影响,提高计算和分析准确度。      

Applications of generalized additive model (GAM) to satellite-derived variables and fishery data for prediction of fishery resources distributions in the Arabian Sea

This study aims to illustrate how remotely sensed oceanic variables and fishing operations data can be used to predict suitable habitat of fishery resources in Geographic Information System. We used sea surface height anomaly (SSHa), sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll concentration (CC), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and fishing depth as predictor variables. Fishery data of Indian squid (Loligo spp.) and catfish (Tachysurus spp.) for study period (1998–2004) were segregated randomly to create training and validation. Catch was normalized into Catch per unit Effort (kg h^?1). Generalized additive modelling was performed on training data and then tested on validation data. Suitable ranges of SST, CC, SSHa and PAR for different species distributions were derived and integrated to predict their spatial distributions. Results indicated good match between predicted and actual catch. Monthly probability maps of predicted habitat areas coincide with high catch of the particular month for the study period.     

随机介质的声散射(Ⅰ)——广义Born近似反演

运用泛函微分方法给出弱随机介质中散射问题的散射幅度Ｂｏｒｎ近似的推广形式。讨论了关于阻尼最小二乘法反演介质参数的各价相关函数的方法,并讨论具有有限支集势函数扰动的逆问题的唯一性,其结果对运用Ｎｅｗｔｏｎ法等数值方法有实际意义。     

Coupling land use allocation models with raster GIS

As geographic information systems (GIS) have moved from information storage and retrieval operations towards more decision support functions, there is a need for more integration of spatial analytical modules that can assist in locational decisions. This paper presents a methodology for coupling land use allocation models with a raster GIS. For raster systems, the integration of any decision module has been limited by the size of raster datasets that may contain hundreds of thousands of pixels. Therefore, decision heuristics have been used rather than exact methods such as mathematical programming models. For the problem of land use allocation, the special structure of the generalized assignment problem is used here to handle large scale datasets. The advantage of the mathematical programming approach is the additional information associated with the dual variables and opportunity costs that can be used in subsequent sensitivity analyses. Received: 7 April 1998/Accepted: 2 October 1998     

根据三斜距确定点的三维坐标及精度

本文绘出一种根据三斜距解算点的三维坐标的直接方法,无需初值、迭代及多值判断,非常适合计算机编程;给出的实用精度估算式能方便地实现根据三斜里估算待定点三维点位精度之目的;对其应用条件的讨论,提出了应用中的具体倾角限值,对指导实际工作具有重要意义。     

GPS网与常规网三维联合平差的一种简便模型

提出了GPS控制网与常规控制网三维联合平差时分别固定平面坐标与高程的简便方法,从而简化了三维联合平差的模型,并给出算例验证了模型。     

广义坐标系η中的位涡方程

给出了在广义坐标系（η）中导出的位涡方程,以及它分别在笛卡尔坐标（z)、气压坐标（p）或等熵坐标（θ）时的具体表达式。结果表明,由此得出的各坐标系的位涡方程和过去人们在各坐标系中分别推出的位涡方程一致。并且得出位涡在绝热和无摩擦的条件下守恒。