公众气象服务满意度评价指标体系的构建方法

从通常意义上的满意程度度量的角度,结合气象服务特征,探究公众气象服务满意程度的度量问题、基于单指标评价的公众气象服务满意率和公众气象服务满意度及其度量特征,并介绍基于多指标评价技术——公众气象服务满意度评价指标体系,得到以下主要结论：1）使用单指标评价公众气象服务满意程度时,建议使用公众气象服务满意度;使用多指标评价公众气象服务满意程度时,建议构建公众气象服务满意度评价指标体系。2）满意度和满意率度量的区别在于前者侧重于满意的深度,后者侧重于满意的广度;前者的结果较后者波动更为小、更为稳定和科学。公众气象服务满意度评价指标体系是基于分层法和计量法的多指标评价方法,能够全面地度量公众气象服务满意度,发现满意度的多层次分布特征,找出影响气象服务满意度的主要因子,从而改进公众气象服务质量。     

NOAA IMS雪冰产品在青藏高原积雪监测中的适用性分析

在系统评估青藏高原积雪观测典型气象站历史定位坐标精度基础上,利用站点雪深资料对NOAA IMS 4 km和1 km分辨率雪冰产品在青藏高原的精度和适用性进行了验证和评估,定量分析了IMS 4 km到1 km空间分辨率提高和气象站历史定位与GPS定位坐标之间的差异对青藏高原IMS积雪监测精度的影响。结果表明：青藏高原个别气象站历史坐标与当前GPS接收机定位之间存在较大的差异,如安多气象站经度偏小0.6°,纬度偏大0.08°。IMS 4 km雪冰产品在青藏高原的总精度介于76.4%~83.2%,平均为80.1%,积雪分类精度介于35.8%~60.7%,平均为47.2%,平均误判率为17.1%,平均漏判率为45.5%,总体上呈现地面观测的积雪日数越多、平均雪深越大,其总体监测精度越低,而积雪分类精度越高的特点。IMS分辨率从4 km到1 km总体精度平均提高了2.9%,积雪分类精度平均提高了0.9%,主要是由于个别站点的精度提升较大引起的,对高原多数台站积雪监测精度的改进和提升很小。除个别台站外,目前气象站历史坐标和GPS定位坐标之间的差异,对IMS 4 km积雪监测精度验证结果没有影响。然而,今后随着卫星遥感技术的发展,更高时空分辨率的遥感积雪产品将用于积雪监测和研究,精确的地面观测站坐标信息是对这些遥感数据开展精度验证与实际应用的前提。     

土壤污染评价中几种不同评价标准的比较——以合肥地区为例

利用不同的评价标准对合肥地区土壤重金属污染状况进行评价。发现以区域土壤环境背景值上限值作为评价标准,土壤污染问题十分普遍,相当多的城镇区和工业区污染程度很严重,据此统计出的污染面积一般较大;而采用GB15618土壤环境质量标准并根据土壤的应用功能不同进行评价,土壤中污染元素含量多属于相对洁净水平,以此统计的污染面积要小得多。     

油藏条件下孔隙岩样毛管和电学性质研究

本文系统总结了国内外关于油藏条件下岩石物理基础实验研究的成果、现状及发展方向。油藏条件主要是指油藏实际的温度、压力、毛管及电性平衡、饱和顺序和润湿性质等。实验研究及现场资料均表明，油藏条件和地面实际室条件下饱和流体孔隙岩样毛管及电学性质有很大差惜同藏条件下毛管及电学性质实际研究对准确评价油气储量及促进岩石物理学基础理论发展具有重要意义。     

Progresses and Perspectives of the Resource Evaluation Related to Agri-cultural Heritage Tourism

The scientific evaluation of tourism resources is not only an important prerequisite for the development of agri-cultural heritage tourism (AHT), but it can also promote the conservation and management of Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS). With the goal of providing scientific support for the sustainable management of tourism resources, this review systematically analyzes the overall situation, research regions, developmental timeline trends, key fields and hot topics of resource evaluation research related to AHT over 2005-2020. With a comprehensive perspective that incorporates both traditional literature review and quantitative literature review, the study revealed four important aspects of AHT research. (1) Relevant articles could be divided into two phases, a development-oriented period (2005-2012) and a conservation-oriented period (2013-2020). (2) GIAHS accounts for the absolute majority (about 66.7%) of relevant studies. In particular, Longji Terraces System, Hani terraces system and Dong’s Rice-Fish-Duck System were the research hotspots IAHS, and Yunnan, Zhejiang and Guangxi were the research hotspot provinces. (3) Terraced landscapes and tea culture were the most popular themes in tourism resource evaluation, while sports tourism, tea culture tourism and study tours are becoming the new trends in IAHS sites. (4) Research methods have undergone a shift from qualitative to quantitative approaches, and a combination of these two in an interdisciplinary manner is becoming a new research trend. By reviewing and prospecting the relevant literature, this study not only makes a unique contribution to the tourism resource evaluation of IAHS, but also helps to enrich the relevant evaluation theories and further promote the sustainable development of heritage tourism from theoretical and methodological perspectives.     

塔西南麦盖提斜坡奥陶系储层特征及测井评价

储层问题是麦盖提斜坡奥陶系油气勘探的关键问题。以录井、岩心和薄片资料为基础,分析奥陶系储层空间类型、储层物性特征;利用测井资料,用定性和定量两种方法分析储层类型,明确储层分布规律。分析认为,斜坡东段风化壳断裂发育带和内幕白云岩分布区是奥陶系储层发育有利区。     

滇西北地区斑岩含矿性评价的常量元素标志探讨

文章介绍了滇西北地区斑(玢)岩分布情况、主要斑(玢)岩体的岩石化学特征,并利用常量元素标志对岩体的铜金含矿性进行评价,认为滇西北地区的斑(玢)岩体可分为五个岩带,金矿成矿有利岩体和铜矿成矿有利岩体两大类型,指出滇西地区具有广阔的斑岩找矿前景。     

洪水管理经济评价研究进展

洪水管理经济评价是践行洪水管理治水方略必不可少的环节。从洪水管理经济评价理论、洪灾损失评估以及洪水管理成本效益评估等方面综述了洪水管理经济评价的主要研究进展,分析了目前研究存在的不足,指出现有的防洪经济理论与方法已难以满足洪水管理决策对经济评价的要求。强调建立完善的洪水管理经济评价理论体系,扩展评价内容和范围,深入开展非工程措施效益、生态环境影响和社会公平等评价方法的研究是中国今后洪水管理经济评价研究的重点。     

Advances in the Research of Impact of Decadal Solar Cycle on Modern Climate

Role of solar activity on modern climate change, particularly in the decadal scale is an important scientific issue. This paper reviews the recent observation of decadal solar signal in earth’s climate, with focus on the mechanism of solar radiation, ultraviolet radiation and cosmic rays on climate system ,and its validation. The paper points out that the assessment of uncertainty in observations, amplification process of the climate system, as well as possible future impact of solar extreme events are challenges in the present study. Finally, the keys of breakthrough are pointed, to provide a reference for future research.