Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.     

Probabilistic seismic response and reliability assessment of isolated bridges

Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forces transmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period and earthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper, a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parameters is conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, a simple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices, characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random nature of seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimi stochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the state space is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After a sensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value of dissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridge protection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanical parameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under different situations.     

乡镇区域生态环境气象指标初探

基于安徽省来安县区域生态环境气象监测站网数据和卫星遥感数据,选取了能见度、霾频率、温湿适宜频率和植被覆盖度4个因子进行统计分析,从而构建了乡镇区域生态环境的气象评价指标(MEI)。对2015年8月至12月来安县各乡镇的MEI适用性和可靠性进行了试算验证,结果表明MEI能够科学合理地反映各乡镇区域间生态环境质量状况的差异和季节变化差异。本文提出的指标适用于乡镇级及以上的行政区域范围内的霾监测和评估,以及地方社会经济发展对生态环境的影响评估,旨在为乡镇级区域生态环境健康发展提供科学依据。     

区域生态环境综合信息图谱的分类与案例分析——以福建省为例

生态环境图谱类型的划分是自然资源合理开发利用和治理及地学信息图谱研究的基础。该文采用系统分析的思路,在总结对比分析前人对土地利用/土地覆被、植被、地貌、景观以及生态环境等的分类研究的基础上,依据地学信息图谱的方法论,借助遥感和地理信息系统等技术,构建生态环境综合信息图谱分类的系统,并以福建省为例,提出福建省生态环境图谱的分类系统。     

江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。     

基于离差加权的煤矿突水水源判别模型及应用

矿井突(涌)水水源的快速识别是矿井水害有效防治的前提条件。针对应用模糊综合评判方法解决水源判别常用的\     

乌鲁木齐河流域地下水水质监测网设计

文章运用地下水易污性编图及污染源分布图法进行了乌鲁木齐河流域地下水水质监测网设计。共设计了130监测孔,现有46个监测孔,另需要84个新的监测孔。按监测类型分为面源监测点22个,点源监测点87个,重点水源地与泉水监测点21个。按监测运行分长期监测点55个,流域普查监测点75个。普查监测点监测频率为1次/5年,长期监测点监测频率为1次/年。首期有针对性地在污染严重的柴窝堡新化厂排污区、乌鲁木齐河谷老排污区、米泉污灌区、米泉工业污染区、老龙河污染区取了25个污染水样测试分析,结果显示地下水已经受到严重污染。     

Road Surface Modeling and Representation from Point Cloud Based on Fuzzy Clustering

A scheme for an automatic road surface modeling from a noisy point cloud is presented. The normal vectors of the point cloud are estimated by distance-weighted fitting of local plane. Then, an automati...     

阿姆河盆地侏罗系海相烃源岩地化特征及与中国海相烃源岩比较

阿姆河盆地上侏罗统海相烃源岩是一套公认的成熟烃源岩,其成熟度与中国古生界高-过成熟度海相烃源岩不同,通过对阿姆河右岸地区上侏罗统岩石样品的地球化学分析及与中国塔里木和华北、四川、吐哈、渤海湾等盆地类似烃源岩的比对,研究了阿姆河盆地成熟海相烃源岩地化特征,建立了有机质丰度与类型的评价标准与图版。结果表明:阿姆河盆地侏罗系存在灰岩和泥岩两类海相烃源岩,灰岩有机质丰度略高于塔里木盆地古生界和华北地台中上元古界灰岩,与四川盆地二叠系灰岩接近,泥岩有机质丰度与吐哈盆地侏罗系煤系泥岩相当,成倍好于塔里木盆地、华北地台海相泥岩;海相泥岩属于Ⅰ₂~Ⅱ型烃源岩,海相灰岩属于Ⅲ~Ⅱ型烃源岩,综合分析认为:1）阿姆河盆地上侏罗统灰岩好烃源岩有机碳含量标准为0.5%,泥岩好烃源岩有机碳含量标准为3%;2）以低等生物为主的海相碳酸盐岩或泥岩,其可溶有机质氯仿沥青“A”族组分、Pr/Ph与Ph/nC₁₈关系、甾烷ααα（C₂₇、C₂₈、C₂₉）-20R含量、多环芳香“三芴”系列等参数既揭示了烃源岩的生源环境,也是鉴别母质类型的良好参数。阿姆河盆地上侏罗统海相泥岩和灰岩烃源岩评价标准与图版的建立,对国外海相盆地油气资源评价具有重要意义。     

基于MapGIS的DEM质量检查与精度评定

介绍了DEM的NSDTF-DEM格式及Arc GIS明码Grid格式,后者的DEM格式应用更广泛并支持更多的GIS软件对其进行读取及处理,故本文通过自编程序实现了前者到后者的转换。