An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

乌鲁木齐河流域地下水水质监测网设计

文章运用地下水易污性编图及污染源分布图法进行了乌鲁木齐河流域地下水水质监测网设计。共设计了130监测孔,现有46个监测孔,另需要84个新的监测孔。按监测类型分为面源监测点22个,点源监测点87个,重点水源地与泉水监测点21个。按监测运行分长期监测点55个,流域普查监测点75个。普查监测点监测频率为1次/5年,长期监测点监测频率为1次/年。首期有针对性地在污染严重的柴窝堡新化厂排污区、乌鲁木齐河谷老排污区、米泉污灌区、米泉工业污染区、老龙河污染区取了25个污染水样测试分析,结果显示地下水已经受到严重污染。     

贵州修文小山坝铝土矿中镓等伴生元素分布规律研究

通过ICP-MS等分析方法对贵州小山坝铝土矿中伴生元素的研究,发现该矿床TiO2、Ga、Ge、Sc、Nb、Li和REE等有用伴生元素在铝土矿矿体中均有较高富集,其含量大多接近或超过了工业综合利用标准,具有较大的经济价值,特别是矿区富铁铝土矿石中Ga和Sc等含量异常高.贵州铝土矿资源丰富,其伴生元素在铝土矿冶炼过程中所产生的赤泥中更为富集,因此,贵州铝土矿综合利用前景十分巨大,这些元素潜在的经济价值,在某种程度上,甚至会超过主导产品氧化铝的价值.开展铝土矿中镓等伴生有用元素的分布及赋存状态的研究,对于镓等稀散元素在特殊地质地球化学环境中超常富集机制、矿产资源综合价值的重新认识评估和矿产资源的综合利用将十分重要,不仅可为铝工业注入新的活力,增加新的经济增长点,而且还可以解决大量赤泥堆放和利用问题,同时获得较大的社会效益与环境效益.     

崎岖列岛附近海域环境质量现状与分析

根据 2 0 0 1年 2月和 7月对崎岖列岛附近海域的水质和底质表层沉积物调查结果 ,采用环境质量单项评价标准指数法 ,对该海域环境质量现状进行了评价与分析。结果表明 :(1 )该海域水质的 p H值、溶解氧和石油类等环境因子基本符合一类海水水质标准 ,化学需氧量、活性磷酸盐和无机氮浓度则超标严重 ,该海域水质已处于严重富营养化状态 (夏季比冬季富营养化程度略低 ) ;(2 )该海域底质表层沉积物中除部分站位的重金属 Cu、 Zn含量超标外 ,有机质、石油类和重金属 Pb、 Cd、 Hg的含量均未超标 ,底质环境状况尚好     

Spatial patterns and environmental risks of ringnet fishing along the Kenyan coast

Ringnet fishing began in the early 20th century and is practised worldwide, mainly to target nearshore pelagic species. The method was introduced to Kenya’s coastal waters by migrant fishers from Tanzania. However, the impacts of this fishing gear remain poorly assessed. We assessed the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort and its possible effects on ecosystem components, such as coral reefs, marine megafauna and marine protected areas, on the south coast of Kenya. We tracked 89 ringnet fishing trips made from December 2015 to January 2016 and used spatial multicriteria analysis to determine hotspots of possible environmental risks. The results showed that habitat type and bathymetric profile influenced the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort. Mixed seagrass and coral habitats had the highest concentration of the effort. Most of the habitats in the study area were moderately exposed to the impacts of the ringnet fishery. The study identifies high-risk areas that require spatial measures to minimise possible environmental risks of the gear both to habitats and to endangered sea turtles.     

Modeling of Multi-Freedom Ship Motions in Irregular Waves with Fuzzy Neural Networks

1 .IntroductionAshiptravelingatseaundergoesundesirablewave inducedmotions ,namely ,surge ,sway ,heav ing ,rolling ,pitchingandyaw .Thesemotionsoftencauseproblemstothecrew ,theonboardequip mentand ,intheworstcase ,thesafetyofthevessel.Tominimizethewave inducedshipmotions ,controlsystemsmaybeapplied .Theaccuratemodelingofshipmotionsisthereforeveryimportantforshipdesignanddesignofmotioncontrolsystems .Manyresearchershavedevelopedshipmotionpredictionmethodsbasedonthepotentialflowtheo ries (Dong ,…     

Fuzzy Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Offshore Platforms in Ice-Infested Waters

1 .IntroductionTheBohaiGulfisinfestedbyiceinthewholewinter,andoffshorestructuresthereexperiencenotonlywind ,waves ,currentsandearthquake ,butalsoiceloadswhicharecomplicatedbecauseofthedynamicinteractionbetweenicesheetsandstructures.Duanetal.( 2 0 0 0 )hadacomprehensivere viewofthelatestadvancesonice inducedvibration ,fatigueandfractureofoffshorestructures ,payingmuchattentiontothedifferencesinicebreakingmodeanddynamicsofstructuresindifferentice in festedwaters .Theypresentedcriticallythelates…