A Bootstrap Approach to Computing Uncertainty in Inferred Oil and Gas Reserve Estimates

This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis.     

春季麦播期土壤墒情预报方法

运用相关系数和逐步回归等统计分析方法 ,建立佳木斯市春季麦播期土壤墒情预报方程 ,试作春季麦播期土壤墒情预报 ,经检验方程合理可用     

Biodiversity and conservation in the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (Qinghai-Xizang Plateau) is a unique biogeographic region in the world, where various landscapes, altitudinal belts, alpine ecosystems, and endangered and endemic species have been developed. A total of 26 altitudinal belts, 28 spectra of altitudinal belts, 12,000 species of vascular plant, 5,000 species of epiphytes, 210 species of mammals, and 532 species of birds have been recorded. The plateau is also one of the centers of species formation and differentiation in the world. To protect the biodiversity of the plateau, about 80 nature reserves have been designated, of which 45 are national or provincial, covering about 22% of the plateau area. Most of the nature reserves are distributed in the southeastern plateau. Recently, the Chinese government has initiated the “Natural Forests Protection Project of China,” mainly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers. “No logging” policies have been made and implemented for these areas.     

The sedimentary coastal basin of Togo: example of a multilayered aquifer still influenced by a palaeo-seawater intrusion

In Togo, the hydrogeology of the sedimentary coastal aquifers along the Gulf of Guinea has been studied for the last three decades to define the recharge processes and the origin and evolution of the salinity. Isotope hydrology and fluid geochemistry suggest that the current recharge of all aquifers, both confined and unconfined, occurs through the crystalline basement and the Plio-Quaternary deposits. Two main groundwater mineralization processes are observed: the first one, in recharge areas, is due to farming, village and city life and concerns unconfined aquifers (crystalline basement, Continental Terminal and Quaternary sediments); the second one is a mixing process between recent freshwater and fossil saline water still present in the deep confined aquifers inland, several kilometers away from the coast. Brackish water was trapped in low-permeability lenses of confined aquifers (Eo-Palaeocene and Maastrichtian) during the Quaternary, in periods of low recharge, notably during the last glacial maximum (LGM), and has not yet been flushed out. Hydrodynamic simulations indicate that, at that time, the aquifers experienced a maximum seawater intrusion as far as 20–22 km inland, depending on the palaeo-recharge value at the outcrops.     

煤层风氧化带宽度的确定方法

在煤炭资源储量估算中,煤层风氧化带垂深都是根据煤质化验指标来确定,对在煤层底板等高线上如何确定煤层风氧化带宽度没有明确的规定,为此,依据实际工作中遇到的三种地质情况：地表基本平坦：地表有倾角且倾向与煤层倾向相同;地表有倾角且倾向与煤层倾向相反,分别用制图法、计算法确定其煤层风氧化带的宽度。     

基于C／S的矿产资源开发储量管理信息系统的研发

为实现矿产资源储量管理网络实时查询功能,在目前国土资源部金土工程的储量管理软件的基础上,开发出了“基于C／S的矿产资源开发储量管理信息系统”。该系统采用了结构化的程序设计方法,操作系统平台采用了MS Windows系统,程序开发平台采用了Borland公司Delphi,数据库的查询语言采用标准SQL查询语言,主要实现了矿产资源开发和储量数据的综合查询和汇总功能。     

江苏徐州岩溶塌陷及其防治对策

徐州地区碳酸岩地层分布较广,岩溶较为发育。由地下岩溶所引起的地面塌陷地质灾害频发。本文分析了徐州地区岩溶发育条件、发育特征、分布规律和区域地质环境、人为因素等,对可能引起的地质灾害进行了研讨和预测。初步探讨了徐州岩溶塌陷地质灾害的防治措施和对策。     

南岭国家级自然保护区森林景观格局变化与动态模拟

基于eCogntion、ArcGIS 和IDRISI 软件,采用景观格局指数分析广东南岭国家级自然保护区1988~2009 年景观类型数量及空间格局的变化;运用CA-Markov 模型模拟流域2010年的景观格局,预测2021 年的景观格局。结果表明,研究区森林景观类型以常绿阔叶林和针叶林为主;景观破碎度增加,斑块复杂程度提高,各景观类型的分布更加趋于复杂化;CA-Markov模型预测表明,2010~2021 年景观破碎度有所降低,多样性增加。     

北太平洋冬季SST、风场及环流对淡水强迫的响应

通过海气耦合模式CCSM3(The Community Climate System Model version 3),研究在北大西洋高纬度淡水强迫下,北太平洋冬季的海表温度SST、风场及流场的响应及其区域性差异。结果表明:淡水的注入使北太平洋整体变冷,但有部分区域异常增暖;在太平洋东部赤道两侧,SST的变化出现北负南正的偶极子型分布。阿留申低压北移的同时中纬度西风减弱,热带附近东北信风增强。黑潮和南赤道流减弱,北太平洋副热带逆流和北赤道流增强,日本海被南向流控制。风场及流场的改变共同导致了北太平洋SST异常出现复杂的空间差异:北太平洋中高纬度SST的降温主要由大气过程决定,海洋动力过程主要影响黑潮、日本海及副热带逆流区域的SST,太平洋热带地区SST异常由大气与海洋共同主导。