胜利油田近海及沿岸地区东北大风及风暴潮分析预报

对产生影响胜利油田近海及沿岸地区东北大风及风暴潮灾害的两大类天气系统进行了具体分析，分别给出了冷锋配合江淮气旋产生东北大风及风暴潮的三种环流形势和两类影响胜利油田热带气旋移动路径及其预报着眼点。     

Assimilating snow observations to snow interception process simulations

Snow interception is a crucial hydrological process in cold regions needleleaf forests, but is rarely measured directly. Indirect estimates of snow interception can be made by measuring the difference in the increase in snow accumulation between the forest floor and a nearby clearing over the course of a storm. Pairs of automatic weather stations with acoustic snow depth sensors provide an opportunity to estimate this, if snow density can be estimated reliably. Three approaches for estimating fresh snow density were investigated: weighted post-storm density increments from the physically based Snobal model, fresh snow density estimated empirically from air temperature (Hedstrom, N. R., et al. [1998]. Hydrological Processes, 12, 1611–1625), and fresh snow density estimated empirically from air temperature and wind speed (Jordan, R. E., et al. [1999]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 7785–7806). Automated snow depth observations from adjacent forest and clearing sites and estimated snow densities were used to determine snowstorm snow interception in a subalpine forest in the Canadian Rockies, Alberta, Canada. Then the estimated snow interception and measured interception information from a weighed, suspended tree and a time-lapse camera were assimilated into a model, which was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM), using Ensemble Kalman Filter or a simple rule-based direct insertion method. Interception determined using density estimates from the Hedstrom-Pomeroy fresh snow density equation agreed best with observations. Assimilating snow interception information from automatic snow depth measurements improved modelled snow interception timing by 7% and magnitude by 13%, compared to an open loop simulation driven by a numerical weather model; its accuracy was close to that simulated using locally observed meteorological data. Assimilation of tree-measured snow interception improved the snow interception simulation timing and magnitude by 18 and 19%, respectively. Time-lapse camera snow interception information assimilation improved the snow interception simulation timing by 32% and magnitude by 7%. The benefits of assimilation were greatly influenced by assimilation frequency and quality of the forcing data.     

A Review on Submarine Groundwater Discharge

Submarine Groundwater Discharge(SGD), an important part of global water cycle, is recently recognized as a research highlight on the land ocean interaction in the coastal zone. Firstly, This paper analyzes the components and driving force of SGD, and summarizes the main estimating methods of SGD and its individual strengths and weaknesses. Secondly, the paper describes the important role of SGD in transporting dissolved mass into the costal ocean and significant impacts on the ecological environment of costal ocean, and through analyzing the biogeochemical process in the mixing zone of fresh salt water, indicates the important position of subterranean estuary in studying submarine groundwater discharge. Finally, the paper points out the major problems currently existing in SGD research, then presents the future research direction.     

基于模糊综合评价法的海岛深层地下淡水开发潜力评价

研究并选取了与海岛深层地下淡水开发利用相关的自然、社会和施工3个方面12个影响因素,并采用模糊综合评价法构建了海岛深层地下淡水开发潜力评价模型。利用该模型对嵊泗泗礁山岛深层地下淡水开发利用潜力进行的评估,得出开发潜力巨大的结论。这一评价结果与其他学者研究结果一致,说明所建立的模型评估结果较为准确,可为海岛深层地下淡水开发潜力的评估提供一条较为客观、准确的途径。     

新围涂区土壤脱盐与地下水淡化预测分析

以浙江玉环县漩门二期水库蓄淡工程背景,从土壤盐分统计预报的基本方法——数理统计法出发来预测涂区土壤的脱盐速度,建立了对数函数数学模型并进行了模型的检验与讨论,得出适用于该滩涂湿地涂区的土壤脱盐量公式并进行了预测计算。在此基础上,采用相类似的对数函数拟合的方法对涂区土壤浅层地下水淡化速度进行了预测分析。     

基于地表水-地下水耦合模型的海底地下淡水排放量估算

陆源地下淡水排泄(SFGD)作为海底地下水排泄(SGD)中的重要组成部分,也是陆地向海洋输送化学物质重要且隐蔽的通道.将宾州州立集成水文模型PIHM应用到广东省东南部沿海地区,构建海岸地表水-地下水耦合模型,对SFGD速率进行时空变异分析,结果表明:(1)SFGD速率与相关影响因子的多元回归分析显示当地形坡度i≤2％时...     

向海洋要淡水解决沿海水荒问题探讨

我国沿海地区淡水资源匮乏,供需矛盾尖锐,大力发展低能耗的海水淡化技术,开发海底淡水资源,是沿海地区解决水荒问题的两个重要措施。     

海平面上升背景下上海市长江口水源地供水安全风险评估及对策

分析和甄别上海市需水系统和长江口水源地供水系统风险因子,建立基于水资源供需平衡的上海市水源地供水安全风险评估模型,并采用系统动力学预测模型和高分辨率非正交曲线网格移动潮滩边界的长江河口盐水入侵三维数值模型,分别计算分析2030年人口增长、径流减少和海平面上升等3种风险因子叠加作用下的上海市需水量与长江口陈行、东风西沙和青草沙3个水源地的可供原水量,并进行供需比较分析和供水安全风险评估。结果表明：在海平面分别上升10和25 cm、枯季平均径流和没有新增水源条件下,2020年的缺水量分别为39万和74万m³/d,特枯水文年供水能力降低19万m³/d;若新增没冒沙水源300万m³/d,可缓解上海市2020年的缺水状况。     

Evaluation and mapping of Dead Sea coastal aquifers salinity using Transient Electromagnetic (TEM) resistivity measurements

Evaporite karst has intensively developed recently along the Dead Sea (DS) coastal area in Israel and Jordan. It takes place in very saline groundwater dissolving buried salt layers, causing collapse of the surface. In this paper, groundwater salinity throughout the DS coastal area is investigated using the Transient Electromagnetic (TEM) method. Twenty-eight TEM soundings along the DS coastal area were carried out close to observation boreholes to calibrate resistivity–salinity relationships. Groundwater electrical conductivity was measured in these boreholes, and its salinity was analyzed at the laboratory by the Geological Survey of Israel (GSI). Quantitative relationships between bulk resistivity (ρ_x), water resistivity (ρ_w) and chloride concentration (C_cl) were derived in the resistivity range less than 1.0 Ω·m that enabled to evaluate the salinity of the aquifer in in situ conditions. Average values of the effective porosity of sandy sediments, φ_e = 0.32, and of silty ones, φ_e = 0.44, were used to generate the corresponding Archie equations. The study has shown that a DS aquifer with bulk resistivity in the range of 0.55–1.0 Ω·m contains in pores brine with 50–110 g_chloride/l of (22–50% of that in saturated conditions, respectively), i.e. it keeps the potential to dissolve up to 114–174 g/l of salt.     

南海障碍层的季节变化及其与海面通量的关系

对气候平均态的温度和盐度分析证实,夏、秋季南海南部上层海洋存在障碍层现象.决定障碍层出现的关键因素是净淡水通量,而障碍层的深度和厚度分布则受风场的显著影响,障碍层受混合层和等温层发展的调制.夏季,南海南部上层海洋在东南向Ek-man水平输运以及东侧下降运动双重因素作用下,较淡的水体在南海东南侧堆积,混合层底部高温水脱离混合层保留在等温层中,造成障碍层在南海东南侧最为深厚,达到30 m.最厚障碍层出现的位置和最厚"南海暖水"出现的位置几乎重合,障碍层的"热障"作用促进了"南海暖水"的发展.