Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation,sea-level rise,and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation

Salt marshes accrete both organic and inorganic sediments. Here we present analytical and numerical models of salt marsh sedimentation that, in addition to capturing inorganic processes, explicitly account for above- and belowground organic processes including root growth and decay of organic carbon. The analytical model is used to examine the bias introduced by organic processes into proxy records of sedimentation, namely ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb. We find that accretion rates estimated using ²¹⁰Pb will be less than accretion rates estimated using the ¹³⁷Cs peak in steadily accreting marshes if (1) carbon decay is significant and (2) data for ²¹⁰Pb extend below the ¹³⁷Cs peak. The numerical model expands upon the analytical model by including belowground processes such as compaction and root growth, and by explicitly tracking the evolution of aboveground biomass and its effect on sedimentation rates. Using the numerical model we explore how marsh stratigraphy responds to sediment supply and the rate of sea-level rise. It is calibrated and tested using an extensive data set of both marsh stratigraphy and measurements of vegetation dynamics in a Spartina alterniflora marsh in South Carolina, USA. We find that carbon accumulation in marshes is nonlinearly related to both the supply of inorganic sediment and the rate of sea-level rise; carbon accumulation increases with sea-level rise until sea-level rise reaches a critical rate that drowns the marsh vegetation and halts carbon accumulation. The model predicts that changes in carbon storage resulting from changing sediment supply or sea-level rise are strongly dependent on the background sediment supply: if inorganic sediment supply is reduced in an already sediment poor marsh the storage of organic carbon will increase to a far greater extent than in a sediment-rich marsh, provided that the rate of sea-level rise does not exceed a threshold. These results imply that altering sediment supply to estuaries (e.g., by damming upstream rivers or altering littoral sediment transport) could lead to significant changes in the carbon budgets of coastal salt marshes.     

CO_2地质储存潜力与适宜性评价方法及初步评价

借鉴国外CO2地质储存潜力与适宜性调查评价工作程序,在充分考虑我国复杂的地质背景、CO2地质储存研究现状等因素的基础上,将我国CO2地质储存潜力与适宜性评价工作划分国家级潜力评价阶段、盆地级潜力评价阶段、目标区级潜力评价阶段、场地级评价阶段、灌注、监测运行期评价阶段,按评价精度由低到高,分称为CO2地质储存潜力与适宜性评价E、D、C、B、A级;并对我国CO2地质储存潜力与适宜性进行了E级评价,即运用层次分析-模糊指数法对我国陆相沉积盆地进行了初步筛选,并对其储量进行了计算,认为我国陆上沉积盆地深部咸水含水层是最主要的CO2地质储量场所。     

Variability of Raindrop Size Distribution during a Regional Freezing Rain Event in the Jianghan Plain of Central China

The characteristics of the raindrop size distribution(DSD) during regional freezing rain(FR) events that occur throughout the phase change(from liquid to solid) are poorly understood due to limited observations. We investigate the evolution of microphysical parameters and the key formation mechanisms of regional FR using the DSDs from five disdrometer sites in January 2018 in the Jianghan Plain(JHP) of Central China. FR is identified via the size and velocity distribution measured from a disdrom...     

Analysis of radial movement of an unconfined leaky aquifer due to well pumping and injection

Radial movement of an unconfined leaky aquifer was studied with respect to hydraulic forces that are induced by well recharge and discharge. New analytic solutions in the velocity and displacement fields were found and applied to describe transient movement in an unconfined leaky aquifer. Linear momentum and mass balance of saturated porous sediments, the Darcy-Gersevanov law, and the analytic solution of hydraulic drawdown for unsteady flow within the unconfined leaky aquifer were introduced to find the new solutions. Analytic results indicate that the nonlinear relation between the initial hydraulic head (h₀) and the well function has an insignificant effect on the aquifer transient movement when the drawdown s<0.02h ₀. When the well function is simplified with different assumptions and pumping conditions, the new solutions correspondingly reduce to cases that are similar to the Hantush-Jacob, Muskat, and Theis transient movement of a confined leaky aquifer. It was found that large leakance is important in slowing radial movement and reducing aquifer deformation. Flow velocity in the aquifer is more responsive to leakance than to cumulative displacement within the aquifer. The zones and boundary with tensile stress can be located using the same approach applied to a confined aquifer for risk assessment of earth fissuring.

---

Résumé Le mouvement radial dans un aquifère semi-perméable libre a été étudié en considérant les forces hydrauliques induites par la recharge et le prélèvement au niveau d’un puits. De nouvelles solutions analytiques des champs de vitesse et de déplacement ont été trouvées et appliquées pour décrire le mouvement transitoire dans un aquifère semi-perméable libre. Pour trouver les nouvelles solutions, le moment linéaire et le bilan de masse dans les sédiments poreux saturés, la loi de Darcy-Gersevanov, et la solution analytique du rabattement hydraulique pour un écoulement transitoire dans un aquifère semi-perméable libre sont pris en compte. Les résultats analytiques montrent que la relation non-linéaire entre le potentiel hydraulique initial (h₀) et la fonction de puits a un effet insignifiant sur le mouvement transitoire de l’aquifère quand le rabattements s <0.02h₀. Si la fonction de puits est simplifiée en tenant compte de différentes hypothèses et conditions de pompage, les nouvelles solutions se réduisent en conséquence à des cas similaires au mouvement transitoire dans un aquifère semi-perméable captif selon Hantush-Jacob, Muskat, et Theis. Il s’est avéré qu’une drainance élevée est importante pour le ralentissement du mouvement radial et la réduction de la déformation de l’aquifère. La vitesse d’écoulement dans l’aquifère est plus sensible à la drainance qu’au déplacement cumulé dans l’aquifère. Les zones et la frontière présentant des contraintes de traction peuvent être localisées en utilisant la même approche appliquée à un aquifère captif pour l’évaluation des risques de fissuration du sol.

---

Resumen Se ha estudiado el movimiento radial en un acuífero no confinado con fuga en relación a las fuerzas hidráulicas que son inducidas por la descarga y recarga del pozo. Se encontraron nuevas soluciones analíticas en los campos de desplazamiento y velocidad, las cuales se aplicaron para describir el movimiento transitorio en un acuífero no confinado con fuga. Se han introducido cálculos de balance de masa y momentum lineal de los sedimentos porosos saturados, la Ley Darcy-Gersevanov, y la solución analítica de descenso hidráulico para flujo sin régimen permanente dentro del acuífero no confinado con goteo para encontrar las nuevas soluciones. Los resultados analíticos indican que la relación no lineal entre la presión hidráulica inicial (h₀) y la función del pozo tiene efecto insignificante en el movimiento transitorio del acuífero cuando el descenso s < 0.02h₀. Cuando se simplifica la función del pozo en base a diferentes supuestos y condiciones de bombeo se reducen las nuevas soluciones a casos que son similares a el movimiento transitorio Hantush-Jacob, Muskat, y Theis de un acuífero confinado con goteo. Se encontró que las fugas grandes son importantes en la disminución del movimiento radial y en la reducción de la deformación del acuífero. La velocidad de flujo en el acuífero responde más a las fugas que al desplazamiento acumulativo dentro del acuífero. Pueden localizarse zonas y límites con esfuerzos tensionales usando el mismo enfoque aplicado a acuíferos confinados para evaluación de riesgo de generación de fracturas en el terreno.

---

     

Snowpack disrupts relationship between young water fraction and isotope amplitude ratio; approximately one fifth of mountain streamflow less than one year old

Previous “fraction of young water” (F_yw) estimates based on relative annual isotopic amplitudes in precipitation (A_p) and streamflow (A_s) produced low F_yw values in mountain catchments, which is contrary to extensive research that reports rapid water transmission in mountains. This study investigated this discrepancy by testing the effect of snow accumulation on the model that underpins the F_yw method. A Monte-Carlo analysis of simulations for 20,000 randomly-generated catchment model configurations used 10 years of precipitation inputs for the Upper Elbow River catchment in the Rocky Mountains (Alberta, Canada) to model discharge with and without snowpack storage of winter precipitation. Neither direct nor modified precipitation input produced a 1:1 relationship between A_s/A_p and F_yw, undermining the applicability of the original F_yw method in mountain watersheds with large seasonal snow accumulation. With snowpack-modified input a given A_s/A_p ratio corresponds to a range of F_yw values, which can still provide semi-quantitative information. In the small (435 km²) Elbow River catchment a F_yw range of 7–23% supports previous findings of rapid transmission in mountain catchments. Further analysis showed that the improved discharge prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.9) correlates with higher F_yw values and demonstrated that the interannual shifts in δ¹⁸O can be used to estimate of new water (<1 year) fraction in winter streamflow, and the estimate of 20% for the Elbow River further supports rapid transmission in mountain catchments.     

立式储液罐地震反应数值分析

本文采用大型有限元程序ANSYS对立式储液罐的地震反应进行了研究,考虑了不同罐体和内部液体的相互作用,采用3个不同容积的储罐,输入不同强度的地震动时程,进行了大量的数值计算,给出了一些结论。     

虚拟化在气象局数据中心的应用

通过对虚拟化技术的研究,结合泰州气象局机房布局、数据中心服务器、存储的应用情况以及新业务的增长需求,提出了有针对性的气象业务虚拟化的解决方案。通过新购刀片服务器、FC SAN存储、VMware软件以及对原有的服务器、存储、网络进行整合改造,搭建了气象业务的虚拟化运行模式,最终实现资源的统一调度管理,建成了一个通用性强、扩展性好、可用性高的数据中心。文章同时简述了虚拟化在数据中心的实施过程、应用注意事项、业务迁移适应性分析以及最终的效益。     

液氮冻结条件下岩石孔隙结构损伤试验研究

液氮温度极低,约在-195.56^-180.44℃之间,当与岩石接触时会对岩石孔隙结构产生损伤。根据这一特点,低温液氮有望作为压裂流体对储层进行压裂改造。为了研究液氮冻结对岩石孔隙结构损伤的影响,选取两种不同砂岩岩样,分别在不同初始含水饱和度条件下进行液氮冻结处理。对冻结前、后的岩样进行孔隙度以及核磁共振测试,得到岩样在冻结前、后的孔隙度、横向弛豫时间T2分布以及T2谱面积变化情况。试验结果表明:液氮冻结会对岩石的孔隙结构产生损伤,损伤程度受到岩性、孔隙度和岩石含水饱和度等因素影响;岩石含水饱和度越大,损伤就越严重,当岩石含水饱和度达到100%时,岩石表面产生了明显裂纹;岩石在液氮冻结下损伤形式主要是微孔隙的发育和扩展,微孔隙的增加会使岩石孔隙结构的连通性增强,甚至会产生新的大尺寸孔隙,从而对孔隙结构造成严重损伤。     

三维区域地面沉降数值模拟

由于地裂缝研究及地表变形监测技术（例如GPS,InSAR等）的快速发展,抽取地下水引起的地层水平位移受到关注。传统区域地面沉降模型虽然求解快速但不能模拟水平位移;比奥模型虽然能够模拟土体的三维变形,但模型求解的计算量较大,较少应用于大尺度的区域地面沉降数值模拟。为解决以上问题,推导了解耦三维地面沉降数学模型,模型推导过程显示：比奥模型假设法向总应力和不变,则可简化为解耦三维地面沉降模型;解耦三维地面沉降模型假设土体仅有垂向一维变形,则可简化为传统区域地面沉降模型。同时通过数值试验验证了解耦三维地面沉降模型可以作为比奥模型的替代模型和传统区域地面沉降模型的改进模型,用来模拟抽取地下水引起的三维区域地面沉降。     

Meteorology in Canada: A reaction to the rose report

The methods used in an earlier study focusing on the province of Ontario, Canada, were adapted for this current study to expand the study area over eastern Canada where the infrastructure is at risk of being impacted by freezing rain. To estimate possible impacts of climate change on future freezing rain events, a three-step process was used in the study: (1) statistical downscaling, (2) synoptic weather typing, and (3) future projections. A regression-based downscaling approach, constructed using different regression methods for different meteorological variables, was used to downscale the outputs of eight general circulation models to each of 42 hourly observing stations over eastern Canada. Using synoptic weather typing (principal components analysis, a clustering procedure, discriminant function analysis), the freezing rain-related weather types under historical climate (1958–2007) and future downscaled climate conditions (2016–2035, 2046–2065, 2081–2100) were identified for all selected stations. The potential changes in the frequency of future daily freezing rain events can be projected quantitatively by comparing future and historical frequencies of freezing rain-related weather types.

The modelled results show that eastern Canada could experience more freezing rain events late this century during the coldest months (i.e., December to February) than the averaged historical conditions. Conversely, during the warmest months of the study season (i.e., November and April in the southern regions, October in the northern regions), eastern Canada could experience less freezing rain events late this century. The increase in the number of daily freezing rain events in the future for the coldest months is projected to be progressively greater from south to north or from southwest to northeast across eastern Canada. The relative decrease in magnitude of future daily freezing rain events in the warmest months is projected to be much less than the relative increase in magnitude in the coldest months.