出行路径选择标准及策略研究

采用了实验心理学方法,确定了人们在交通网络上出行时所选择路径的标准及对各标准的偏好程度,获得了人们在路径寻找中积累的各种经验、知识和策略.     

Evaluating smallholder farmers' preferences for climate smart agricultural practices in Tehuledere District,northeastern Ethiopia

This study was conducted in Tehuledere district, northeastern Ethiopia. The objective was to find out farmers' preferences for, and barriers to, adopting climate smart agricultural (CSA) practices. Both primary and secondary sources of data were collected using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Conjoint experiment method was employed to identify the most preferred attributes of CSA practices. We found that high and moderate climate resilience and high crop yield agricultural practices had a positive utility, implying that these were the most preferred combination of CSA when responding to climate change. Contrary to this, high greenhouse gas emissions, low climate resilience and low crop yield had a negative utility, implying that these were the least preferred combination of CSA when responding to climate change. The study found that crop yield and resilience are the most important factors influencing farmers' preferences for CSA practices. The main barriers limiting wide adoption and practicing of CSA include inadequate law enforcement, lack of incentives, inadequate and unreliable extension and weather information. The study established that CSA practices were viable and effective response measures, hence increased support through adoption of innovative technologies, policies and strategies to address the barriers and widen the adoption scope of CSA is recommended.     

中国城市网络的凝聚子群及影响因素研究

凝聚子群特征及形成机理的研究是理解城市网络发育规律及其动力机制的重要切入点。利用2016年中国上市公司500强企业总部-分支机构数据,研究了中国城市网络凝聚子群的多维度特征,定量测度了城市间链接关系的影响因素,探索性的分析了凝聚子群的形成机理。结果发现：派系、k-核、lambda集合、核心-边缘方法都表明中国城市网络存在凝聚子群现象,揭示了城市网络链接强度的层级特征;经济规模、政治资源、知识资本是凝聚子群发育的重要影响因素,网络邻近性、地理区位和历史基础也深刻的影响着凝聚子群的空间格局;择优链接和路径依赖是凝聚子群发育的动力机制,城市关键资源和区位优势将进一步转化为城市网络竞争优势。在网络发展环境下,中国政府需要在更大空间尺度上推动城市间合作,并积极应对城市间发展差距趋于扩大的问题。     

Spatial and temporal groundwater dynamics in extreme arid basins

To accurately obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of groundwater level in an extremely arid zone and its dynamic change patterns under the influence of human activities, based on the data of 55 groundwater observation wells in the middle and lower reaches of the Kriya River, spatial interpolation of regional groundwater level data were performed using the inverse distance weight, spline function, trend surface, and the ordinary kriging methods. The optimal interpolation method was selected by its accuracy to spatially interpolate the groundwater level data in the study area from 2019 to 2021. The results show that: (1) the ordinary kriging method has the highest interpolation accuracy (MAE = 7.1393, MRE = 0.0058, RMSE = 9.4314) and reflects the spatial and temporal variability and distribution characteristics of groundwater levels with great accuracy. (2)The relationship between surface water–groundwater recharge and discharge in different areas of the river channel in the desert section varies depending on geological structure, surface water seepage, and other elements. (3) Groundwater in the Taklamakan Desert has little effect on groundwater recharge in the Dariyabui Oasis, and changes in groundwater dynamics in the oasis are predominantly influenced by surface runoff. (4) Monthly changes in groundwater levels in the Yutian Oasis are continuous, with ‘V’ shaped fluctuations, a declining trend in the southern part, no significant change in the central part, and a slight increase in the northern part. These results contribute to the sustainable management of water resources in the Kriya River Basin, provide a basis for groundwater prediction, and offer a reference for studies of other, similar extreme desert area basins.     

Indicators of Great Basin rangeland health

Early-warning indicators of rangeland health can be used to estimate the functional integrity of a site and may allow sustainable management of desert rangelands. The utility of several vegetation canopy-based indicators of rangeland health at 32 Great Basin rangeland locations was investigated. The indicators were originally developed in rangelands of the Chihuahuan Desert. Soil resources are lost through wind and water-driven erosion mainly from areas unprotected by plant canopies (i.e. bare soil). Study sites in Idaho had the smallest bare patches, followed by sites in Oregon. The more arid Great Basin Sagebrush Zone sites in Utah had the largest bare patches. Several vegetational indicators including percent cover by vegetation, percent cover by life-form, percent cover by sagebrush, and percent cover by resilient species were negatively related to mean bare patch size and are potential indicators of Great Basin rangeland condition. Plant community composition and the range of bare patch sizes were different at sites in the three locations in Idaho, Oregon and Utah. Therefore, expected indicator values are location specific and should not be extrapolated to other locations. The condition of study sites were often ranked differently by different indicators. Therefore, the condition of rangeland sites should be evaluated using several indicators.     

北京城市内部居住空间分布与居民居住区位偏好

在对北京城市内部居住空间分布现状和居民个人居住区位选择偏好的调查基础上,分析了北京城市内部居住空间分布的基本特征、居民居住空间偏好以及居民个人属性特征与居住空间偏好的关系。结果显示:北京城市内部居住空间分布城北明显高于城南,居民购房也多倾向于选择城北;从居民居住空间偏好看,三、四环之间仍是居民购房的首选空间。     

中国产业结构优化路径与碳排放趋势预测

中国已进入产业结构深度调整时期,同时产业升级也是减排的主要途径之一.为此,本文通过构建分部门跨期优化模型,以需求驱动和产业部门供给为基础,假设中国的消费偏好模式不断向发达国家(如美国、欧盟和日本)趋近,对消费偏好导向下的产业结构优化方向及碳排放趋势进行了模拟研究.结果显示,中国的农业和衣食制造部门比重将呈下降趋势,其他服务业部门比重会不断提高.在中国当前消费偏好模式下,重工业、交通运输、化工和金属等高耗能部门的比重仍将增加,而转向美国消费偏好模式后,这些部门的比重都将下降.交通运输和化工部门比重在转向欧盟消费偏好模式后略有提高,转向日本偏好模式后交通运输部门比重将提高,而金属部门比重将下降.受产业结构调整和能源效率提高的影响,中国未来能源消费总量呈倒U型趋势:在中国、欧盟、日本和美国消费偏好模式驱动下,能源消费总量依次下降,对应的能源高峰在2810～2166 Mtoe之间,累积排放量在94～72.6GtC之间.美国的消费偏好模式由于倾向于低碳的服务业部门,因此更有利于节能减排.     

Time preference of small-scale fishers in open access and traditionally managed reef fisheries

Individuals with high discount rates are likely not partial to conservation because they are unwilling to sacrifice short term benefits for potentially higher gains in the future. Many reef fisheries worldwide are open access, and fishers under open access systems are theorized to discount the future at an infinite rate. In contrast, fishers in a customary managed fishery can be expected to be more long term oriented, and thus possibly have lower discount rates. The present study tests this hypothesis by eliciting the discount rates of fishers in an open access small-scale reef fishery, and compares these rates to those of fishers in a customary managed reef fishery. Results indicate that fishers in both open access and traditionally managed reef fisheries have high annual discount rates that are on average over 200%. Contrary to expectations, fishers under an open access system are not associated with higher discount rates compared to customary management. It also appears that a larger proportion of open access fishers are more long-term oriented than those in the customary managed fishery, which is encouraging for the future conservation and sustainability of open access fisheries resources.     

Distribution of n-alkanes in lacustrine sediments from subtropical lake in Brazil

The geochemical composition of lake bed sediments of a tropical reservoir in Brazil have been investigated. The C, N, P composition showed almost no variation between the different sampling points. All samples contained inorganic phosphorus (IP) ranging from 52 to 70%. The Redfield ratios show that the lake is without significant anthropogenic inputs. Most of the organic matter is composed by higher plants decomposition revealed in the total organic carbon (TOC):nitrogen (N) ratio ranging from 15.4 to 57.2. Also, TOC:organic phosphorus (OP) ranged from 265.3 to 933.6, suggesting that most of the organic matter has terrestrial origin from wood plants. The ratios suggest that most organic matter is influenced by the terrestrial characteristics of the watershed. Furthermore, the relative abundance of n-alkane homologues in the sediments was investigated. All samples have been analyzed for the n-alkanes C₈ to C₄₀. The sediments were dominated by n-alkanes C₂₅–C₃₈. It is concluded that n-alkane in sediments mainly come from terrestrial plants, however there is a contribution of submerged aquatic plants, especially in those sites in deeper areas of the lake. On the basis of P_aq index the n-alkanes in sediments comes from terrestrial plants, however there is a contribution from emerged/floating plants.The investigated lake seems to be considered as meso to eutrophic. Because of the relatively high primary productivity in the lakes, there is a substantial organic-matter flux to the sediments, which rapidly becomes anoxic. According to the pristine/phytane ratio the sediments represent an anoxic environment with values found between 0.38 and 1.72.     

Linking landscape and species: Effect of shrubs on patch preference of beetles in arid and semi-arid ecosystems

Linking individual behavior to spatial population processes, may clarify the complex link between species distribution and landscape properties. We asked how shrubs affect beetles in drylands and tested if we could explain distribution patterns of beetles by individual response to shrub landscape. We studied patch preference of ground-dwelling beetles segregated in a two-phase mosaic landscape, composed of shrub-covered and open patches and hypothesized that species richness and abundance are higher under shrubs due to the ameliorated microclimatic conditions and greater food resources. Pitfall trapping showed that shrub patches were preferred in shrub poor ecosystem because there was more food available under shrubs and cooler temperatures. However, similar conditions resulted in shrub preference only in an arid ecosystem, whereas in a semi-arid ecosystem, with high cover of shrubs, we found more beetles in the open patches. Observations in beetle movement patterns explained the contradicting effects of shrub patches in the two ecosystems. Beetle movement was affected by shrubs’ shading suggesting dependency on shrub structure rather than speciesdependency. Integrating analysis of beetle distribution in the population level with analysis of individual movement provides a robust framework for linking landscape properties to species behavior and distribution in a patchy landscape.