加强矿业供给侧结构性改革的初步思考

当前我国正处经济增速减缓的新常态,供给侧结构性改革应运而生。我国乃至世界的矿业更是处于发展的严冬之季,产能严重过剩,大宗商品价格持续走低。在当前形势下,我们要用新常态眼光看待矿业未来发展之路,因地制宜,着力加强供给侧改革,刻不容缓。     

Meeting future food demand with current agricultural resources

Meeting the food needs of the growing and increasingly affluent human population with the planet’s limited resources is a major challenge of our time. Seen as the preferred approach to global food security issues, ‘sustainable intensification’ is the enhancement of crop yields while minimizing environmental impacts and preserving the ability of future generations to use the land. It is still unclear to what extent sustainable intensification would allow humanity to meet its demand for food commodities. Here we use the footprints for water, nitrogen, carbon and land to quantitatively evaluate resource demands and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of future agriculture and investigate whether an increase in these environmental burdens of food production can be avoided under a variety of dietary scenarios. We calculate average footprints of the current diet and find that animal products account for 43–87% of an individual’s environmental burden – compared to 18% of caloric intake and 39% of protein intake. Interestingly, we find that projected improvements in production efficiency would be insufficient to meet future food demand without also increasing the total environmental burden of food production. Transitioning to less impactful diets would in many cases allow production efficiency to keep pace with growth in human demand while minimizing the food system’s environmental burden. This study provides a useful approach for evaluating the attainability of sustainable targets and for better integrating food security and environmental impacts.     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新特征与依据——以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例

针对冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新性问题,以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例,采用相同开采强度下地下热水位降幅异常变化的识别方法,通过2000年以来该地下热水位年际及月际降幅与开采量和上游山区年降水量之间响应变化特征研究,结果表明:(1)冀中平原辛集地区馆陶组地下热水资源具有一定的可更新能力,与上游山区年降水量变化相关,还与地下水位埋深、当年开采引起的水位降幅大小和开采疏干层位砾粗砂岩及细砂岩占比状况有关;(2)辛集地区馆陶组地下热水大规模开采,是该地下水系统获得上游区侧向流入补给的必要条件,属于开采激发型补给,更新补给的资源数量有限;(3)从2000年以来该区地下热水水位动态变化趋势来看,目前该区地下热水资源已处于超采状态,需要压采或人工回灌增大补给,否则难以可持续开发利用。     

温度、饵料种类对中华哲水蚤(Calanus sinicus)油脂积累与生长发育的影响

中华哲水蚤(Calanus sinicus)C5期幼体的油脂积累是种群在黄海冷水团中得以顺利度夏的关键过程。本研究对温度(10°C和19°C恒温,10—19°CⅠ和10—19°CⅡ变温)与饵料种类(硅藻饵料,自然饵料)双因子培养实验进行研究,探讨温度和饵料种类对中华哲水蚤油脂积累与生长发育的影响作用。结果表明,不同的温度和饵料种类对C5期幼体的油脂积累均有影响。C5期幼体在变温组的油脂积累是10°C组的31%—102%,是19°C组的1.8—6.1倍,低温有利于C5期幼体降低个体代谢消耗以增加油脂的积累。在恒温培养下,C5期幼体在硅藻饵料组的油脂积累是自然饵料组的2.8倍,硅藻饵料比自然饵料更有利于油脂的积累。雌体的体长和油囊体积均随着温度的升高而减小。与硅藻饵料相比,在自然饵料组中雌体的性腺发育速度更快,性腺成熟度更高(繁殖指数:58%—65%)。     

Fishers’ knowledge indicates short-term temporal changes in the amount and composition of catches in the southwestern Atlantic

The scarcity of data on fish catches difficult management of small-scale fisheries in developing countries. This study applies fishers’ knowledge to investigate temporal changes in the amount (biomass) and composition (major ecological categories) of fishing resources exploited by small-scale coastal fisheries in the southeastern Brazilian coast. Four hypotheses were investigated: (1) The amount of fish caught reported by fishers would decrease over time. (2) Older fishers would report higher fish catches than younger fishers. (3) Recent interviews would mention large-sized predators less often. (4) Recent interviews would mention less high valued fishing resources. Interviews with 421 fishers in 36 communities in the southeastern Brazilian coast were analyzed, covering a time span of 14 years, from 1995 to 2009. The hypothesis 1 was confirmed, 3 was partially confirmed, while 2 and 4 were not confirmed. Fishers’ age was unrelated to all variables. The results from fishers’ interviews indicated the temporal trends of: (1) a decrease in the biomass of fish caught; (2) an increase in the occurrence of smaller fish and invertebrates in the catch; (3) an increase of high value fishing resources; and (4) maintenance of large predators. The first two indicators suggest excessive fishing, but the later indicators (3 and 4) suggest that the socioecological system of the southeastern Brazilian coast had not yet undergone major ecological shifts.     

不同饵料种类、投喂方式及环境条件对凡纳滨对虾相对摄食量的影响

为提高对虾养殖过程中的饵料利用率并减少养殖废水的排放,作者以凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)为实验对象,研究了不同饵料种类、投喂方式、体质量、充气量、光照强度、水温及盐度对其相对摄食量的影响。结果表明:配合饲料组对虾的相对摄食量显著高于冰鲜虾肉组;连续单颗投喂时对虾的相对摄食量较高;相对摄食量随对对虾体重升高而显著(P0.01)下降,而且不同规格的对虾在竞争条件下平均相对摄食量会降低;充气量6 L/min组对虾的相对摄食量明显高于另外两组;弱光环境下对虾的相对摄食量较高;水温和盐度对相对摄食量的影响极显著(P0.01),在32℃时对虾获得最大相对摄食量,在盐度为5时相对摄食量最小,高盐度下组间差异不显著(P0.05)。因此,在实际生产中应采取少量多次的投饵策略,并根据环境条件的变化合理的调整投饵量。     

Cloud Forest Conservation in the Central Highlands of Guatemala Hinges on Soil Conservation and Intensifying Food Production

Soil erosion threatens long-term soil fertility and food production in Q’eqchi’ communities native to the Sierra Yalijux and Sierra Sacranix mountain ranges in the central highlands of Guatemala. Environmental factors such as steep topography, erodible soils, and intense precipitation events, combined with land subdivision and reduced fallow periods as a consequence of population growth, contribute to severe erosion and strain soil resources. The preservation of the region's cloud forests hinges on enhancing production of staple crops through agricultural intensification while maintaining soil fertility through implementation of soil conservation measures.     

海洋浮游微食物网结构及其影响因素

微食物环是海洋生态系统中重要的物质和能量过程,是传统食物链的有效补充。微食物环研究是当前海洋生态学研究的热点之一,但对其结构的系统研究较少,海洋微食物网结构在2000年才被Garrison提出。尽管微食物网各个类群的丰度在不同海洋环境中有相对变化,但是这些变化都处于一定的范围之内,其丰度结构约为纤毛虫10 cell ml-1、鞭毛虫103 cell ml-1、微微型真核浮游生物104 cell ml-1、蓝细菌104-5 cell ml-1、异养细菌106 cell ml-1、病毒107 particle ml-1。海洋浮游食物链中捕食者和饵料生物粒径的最佳比值为10:1,实际研究中该比值会略低,例如纤毛虫与其饵料的粒径比值为8:1,鞭毛虫为3:1。Pico和Nano浮游植物的丰度比（Pico:Nano）是研究微食物网结构的指数之一,该指数具有不受研究尺度影响的优点,可用于研究区域性和全球性微食物网结构。近年来,学者们从多角度对海洋微食物网的结构开展了研究,不同海区微食物网各类群丰度、生物量的时间和空间变化研究有很多报道,微食物网的结构可受空间、季节、摄食、营养盐等多种因素影响。在对不同空间微食物网的研究中,学者往往研究不同物理性质的水团中各类群生物丰度的不同,以此来表征微食物网结构的不同;同一海区微食物网结构的季节变化也是使用各个类群丰度和生物量的变化来表示,该变化主要受水文环境因素影响。摄食者对微食物网各类生物的影响通过三种途径：1. 中型浮游动物摄食;2. 中型浮游动物摄食微型浮游动物,通过营养级级联效应影响低营养级生物;3. 中型浮游动物通过释放溶解有机物、营养盐影响细菌和低营养级生物。浮游植物通过产生化感物质和溶解有机物影响微食物网结构,而营养盐的浓度及变化则可以对微食物网产生直接或间接影响。     

Using climate to relate water discharge and area in modern and ancient catchments

Models relating sediment supply to catchment properties are important in order to use the geological record to deduce landscape evolution and interplay between tectonics and climate. Water discharge (Q _w) is an important factor in the widely used ‘BQART ’ model, which relates sediment load to a set of measurable catchment parameters. Although many of the factors in this equation may be independently estimated with some degree of certainty in ancient systems, water discharge (Q _w) certainly cannot. An analysis of a world database of modern catchments with 1255 entries shows that the commonly applied equation relating catchment area (A ) to water discharge (Q _w = 0·075A^0·8) does not predict water discharge from catchment area well in many cases (R ² = 0·5 and an error spanning about three orders of magnitude). This is because the method does not incorporate the effect of arid and wet climate on river water discharge. The inclusion of climate data into such estimations is an opportunity to refine these estimates, because generalized estimates of palaeoclimate can often be deduced on the basis of sedimentological data such as palaeosol types, mineralogy and palaeohydraulics. This paper investigates how the relationship between catchment area and river discharge varies with four runoff categories (arid, semi‐arid, humid and wet), which are recognizable in the geological record, and modifies the coefficient and exponent of the above‐mentioned equation according to these classes. This modified model yields improved results in relating discharge to catchment area (R ² = 0·95 and error spanning one order of magnitude) when core, outcrop or regional palaeoclimate reconstruction data are available in non‐arid systems. Arid systems have an inherently variable water discharge, and catchment area is less important as a control due to downstream losses. The model here is sufficient for many geological applications and makes it possible to include variations in catchment humidity in mass‐flux estimates in ancient settings.