Lacustrine Record of 1954 Flood Event on Begnas and Rupa Lake,Central Nepal

In recent decades, there have been discussions and predictions regarding the impact of climate on floods, due to its socioeconomic and environmental consequences. For accurate prediction of future flood events and their impacts, it is crucial to have an improved understanding on past flood events. Lacustrine sediments have been used as a natural archive to study the past flood events. Here, we study the impact of 1954 flood event on the lacustrine environment of Bengas and Rupa Lake in central Nepal based on X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) element analysis, magnetic susceptibility (MS), total organic carbon (TOC) and the biomarker molecular compositions. Results showed that 1954 flood event had significant impacts on the two lakes in terms of detrital input, organic matter deposition and aquatic production. Before the flood event, both two studied lakes had relatively lower catchment erosion rate, lower organic matter deposition and aquatic production. During the flood event, catchment erosion and aquatic production increased in both lakes due to mass transport deposits and the increased nutrition loading attributed to flood event. Following the flood event, Begnas Lake showed the sharp increase in organic matter deposition, whereas in the Rupa Lake organic matter deposition showed minor changes. The difference in organic matter deposition in lakes during flooding event is likely due to detrital material brought and deposited by the flood activity. Overall our results suggest that lacustrine sediments are sensitive to the extreme event and would be an ideal archive for the reconstruction of flood events.     

Is multi-hazard mapping effective in assessing natural hazards and integrated watershed management?

Natural hazards are often studied in isolation.However,there is a great need to examine hazards holistically to better manage the complex of threats found in any region.Many regions of the world have complex hazard landscapes wherein risk from individual and/or multiple extreme events is omnipresent.Extensive parts of Iran experience a complex array of natural hazards-floods,earthquakes,landslides,forest fires,subsidence,and drought.The effectiveness of risk mitigation is in part a function of whether the complex of hazards can be collectively considered,visualized,and evaluated.This study develops and tests individual and collective multihazard risk maps for floods,landslides,and forest fires to visualize the spatial distribution of risk in Fars Province,southern Iran.To do this,two well-known machine-learning algorithms-SVM and MARS-are used to predict the distribution of these events.Past floods,landslides,and forest fires were surveyed and mapped.The locations of occurrence of these events(individually and collectively) were randomly separated into training(70%) and testing(30%) data sets.The conditioning factors(for floods,landslides,and forest fires) employed to model the risk distributions are aspect,elevation,drainage density,distance from faults,geology,LULC,profile curvature,annual mean rainfall,plan curvature,distance from man-made residential structures,distance from nearest river,distance from nearest road,slope gradient,soil types,mean annual temperature,and TWI.The outputs of the two models were assessed using receiver-operating-characteristic(ROC) curves,true-skill statistics(TSS),and the correlation and deviance values from each models for each hazard.The areas-under-the-curves(AUC) for the MARS model prediction were 76.0%,91.2%,and 90.1% for floods,landslides,and forest fires,respectively.Similarly,the AUCs for the SVM model were 75.5%,89.0%,and 91.5%.The TSS reveals that the MARS model was better able to predict landslide risk,but was less able to predict flood-risk patterns and forest-fire risk.Finally,the combination of flood,forest fire,and landslide risk maps yielded a multi-hazard susceptibility map for the province.The better predictive model indicated that 52.3% of the province was at-risk for at least one of these hazards.This multi-hazard map may yield valuable insight for land-use planning,sustainable development of infrastructure,and also integrated watershed management in Fars Province.     

梯级水库作用下的长江流域水文设计成果修订研究

长江流域水文成果复核选取了48个水文站点作为研究对象,考虑站点上游已建具有较强调节能力的大型水库调蓄影响,对径流、洪水进行还原分析计算以保证系列的一致性,并对径流、洪水设计成果的变化进行对比分析。径流成果分析表明,延长系列后干支流主要控制站点的径流成果较为稳定,多年平均年径流量和各站点20%、50%和75%频率年径流设计值的相对变化均在5%以内;洪水成果分析表明,延长洪水系列后的百年一遇设计洪水成果与前期不同阶段采用成果相比变化不大,基本均在4%以内。     

人类活动对官厅山峡设计洪水影响分析

1950年以来,区域中小型水库、塘坝窖池等水利工程和水土保持工程的建设,地下水超采等人类活动,对永定河官厅山峡水文系列的一致性产生了较大影响。基于新安江-海河模型,对官厅山峡的设计洪水成果进行了修订,经计算,100年一遇频率下,官厅山峡3d设计洪量修订值为2.54×10~8m~3,7d设计洪量修订值3.55×10~8m~3。     

基于防洪库容总量控制的雅砻江下游梯级水库蓄水策略研究

根据长江防御洪水方案对雅砻江梯级水库的防洪库容预留要求,分析了预留防洪库容对梯级电站蓄水发电的影响。结合雅砻江水电开发的特点,提出了梯级水库防洪库容总量控制的解决思路,建立了基于防洪库容总量控制的蓄水期发电量最大模型,计算分析了9种不同来水情景的梯级水库优化蓄水方案,并给出了梯级水库总体优化蓄水策略。对该类问题研究具有一定借鉴意义。     

基于次序统计量理论的洪水频率分析方法研究

针对目前参数估计方法存在稀遇洪水频率设计值偏大的问题,提出采用基于数值次序统计量期望值的适线法计算洪水频率设计初始值;针对目前参数估计方法存在常遇洪水频率设计值偏小的问题,提出采用周文德公式修正目前频率设计偏小的情形,计算洪水频率设计修正值;针对目前传统方法计算洪水频率设计值抽样误差大的问题,提出采用基于数值次序统计量标准差的方法计算洪水频率设计保证值。定量分析表明,提出的基于数值次序统计量期望值的优化适线法具有良好的无偏性和有效性;寸滩站洪水频率设计修正值大于频率设计初始值,且两者偏差随着频率减小而减小;寸滩站洪水频率设计保证值明显大于修正值。     

敦煌西土沟沙漠洪水资源开发利用模式及成效分析

收集研究区域内雨量站历年降水量资料,水文站历年径流系列资料以及历年最大洪峰流量、洪水总量成果资料及西土沟敦煌沙漠水文实验研究站实测水文资料,调查该区域内洪水沟道的历史最大洪水。用水文学原理和方法对洪峰流量和洪水总量变化规律进行统计分析,结合敦煌西土沟流域灾害综合治理工程实施情况估算区域水资源可利用量,提出沙漠洪水资源开发利用新模式。结果表明:西土沟流域洪水灾害综合治理工程的实施探索出导流+分洪+工程防护的洪水资源开发利用模式、拦蓄洪水产生地下径流利用模式和沙漠冷水虹鳟鱼养殖到葡萄种植的区域水资源重复利用模式;有效遏制了研究区内沙漠的进一步推进并可显著增加流域内可利用水资源量,实现了区域生态治理与经济发展的良性循环。     

Architecture and preservation in the fluvial to marine transition zone of a mixed-process humid-tropical delta: Middle Miocene Lambir Formation,Baram Delta Province,north-west Borneo

The interaction of river and marine processes in the fluvial to marine transition zone fundamentally impacts delta plain morphology and sedimentary dynamics. This study aims to improve existing models of the facies distribution, stratigraphic architecture and preservation in the fluvial to marine transition zone of mixed-process deltas, using a comprehensive sedimentological and stratigraphic dataset from the Middle Miocene Lambir Formation, Baram Delta Province, north-west Borneo. Eleven facies associations are identified and interpreted to preserve the interaction of fluvial and marine processes in a mixed-energy delta, where fluvial, wave and tidal processes display spatially and temporally variable interactions. Stratigraphic successions in axial areas associated with active distributary channels are sandstone-rich, comprising fluvial-dominated and wave-dominated units. Successions in lateral areas, which lack active distributary channels, are mudstone-rich, comprising fluvial-dominated, tide-dominated and wave-dominated units, including mangrove swamps. Widespread mudstone preservation in axial and lateral areas suggests well-developed turbidity maximum zones, a consequence of high suspended-sediment concentrations resulting from tropical weathering of a mudstone-rich hinterland. Within the fluvial to marine transition zone of distributary channels, interpreted proximal–distal sedimentological and stratigraphic trends suggest: (i) a proximal fluvial-dominated, tide-influenced subzone; (ii) a distal fluvial-dominated to wave-dominated subzone; and (iii) a conspicuously absent tide-dominated subzone. Lateral areas preserve a more diverse spectrum of facies and stratigraphic elements reflecting combined storm, tidal and subordinate river processes. During coupled storm and river floods, fluvial processes dominated the fluvial to marine transition zone along major and minor distributary channels and channel mouths, causing significant overprinting of preceding interflood deposits. Despite interpreted fluvial–tidal channel units and mangrove influence implying tidal processes, there is a paucity of unequivocal tidal indicators (for example, cyclical heterolithic layering). This suggests that process preservation in the fluvial to marine transition zone preserved in the Lambir Formation primarily records episodic (flashy) river discharge, river flood and storm overprinting of tidal processes, and possible backwater dynamics.     

Assessment of seasonal sedimentation in rain-fed irrigation reservoirs by a hillslope erosion modeling approach

A distributed hillslope model is presented for the computation of seasonal sediment loads flowing into the rain-fed irrigation reservoirs （tanks） from the mountainous catchments in Sri Lanka. The model is based on the subdivision of the catchment into hillslopes and application of a sediment transport capacity equation at hillslope scale and computation of sediment loads transported to the tanks. Coarse and fine sediment loads due to hourly excess rainfall during a season are separately estimated. The model depends on fewer parameters and can be easily calibrated for a tank. The model calibration only requires measurements of coarse and fine sediment loads transported into the tank due to several rainfalls of different intensities from a representative subcatchment of the tank. Coarse sediment loads are measured by using a sediment trap installed across an ephemeral stream draining the subcatchment. Fine sediment loads are obtained by measuring the discharge and accompanied sediment concentrations over the sediment trap. The model is calibrated, verified and applied for an irrigation tank in Sri Lanka to estimate the seasonal sedimentation loads.     

InSAR视角下准噶尔盆地农业灌溉区地表形变特征和演化规律

抽取地下水进行农业灌溉是导致地下水位快速下降的重要因素,而长期过度开采地下水往往会引发地面沉降灾害,这种现象在干旱和半干旱地区非常普遍。为了研究农业灌溉超采引发的地表形变特征和演化规律,本文以准噶尔盆地南缘、天山北麓地带为研究区域,利用SBAS-InSAR技术对2003年—2009年覆盖呼图壁县的ENVISAT/ASAR升、降轨数据进行处理,获取了该地区的地表形变场,并结合研究区的农业灌溉方式、水资源补给和季节变化等资料对地面沉降的时空变化特征进行分析,为水资源和农业可持续发展提供参考意义。实验表明,研究区内主要有两个沉降幅度较大的漏斗,且都位于农田区域。2007年以前,研究区地表没有显著形变,之后发生了较大量级的沉降。采用传统灌溉方式和时针式灌溉系统的农业区平均沉降速率最高分别可达50 mm/a和30 mm/a,前者在时间上呈线性变化,而后者具有显著的周期性变化特征。在冬季时,采用时针式灌溉系统的地区地面抬升量可达40 mm,远大于传统灌溉方式的农田区域,而夏季地面沉降速率可达200 mm/a。对研究区农业灌溉活动进行分析后发现,农业灌溉造成的地下水超采是该地区地面沉降的主要影响因素,其形变机制与季节变化具有较高的相关性,在灌溉活动休止期内地表形变取决于地下水的补给量。研究区内的形变特征和影响因素分析将为地下水资源的充分利用和农业的可持续发展提供有效的信息。