“丝绸之路”模态与东亚夏季环流的关系分析

基于1979—2015年ERA-Interim再分析资料,分析了夏季"丝绸之路"(the Silk Road,即SR)模态与东亚地区大气环流之间的联系,结果表明:在SR模态正异常年,200 hPa亚洲急流在东亚地区比较弯曲,在中国新疆和环渤海地区500 hPa上分别有一个高度脊和一个高度槽,在蒙古国、中国内蒙古以及日本以东500 hPa上有显著的位势高度正异常,风场异常与高度场配合较好。在对流层中低层的中国北方,有明显的下沉气流,在中国内蒙古、蒙古国以及日本以东,出现位涡负异常,而在朝鲜半岛附近,则有位涡正异常出现。中国环渤海地区降水偏少,而日本大部分地区降水偏多。在SR模态负异常年,200 hPa急流相对平直且更强,500 hPa的波列特征比正异常年更加显著,在中国内蒙古和蒙古国、朝鲜半岛、日本以东分别有"-、+、-"分布的位势高度场异常。与正异常年相比,位于东亚135°E附近的正异常中心变得显著,在该异常中心的西侧和东侧分别有上升和下沉异常气流,对应在朝鲜半岛和中国东北附近有较大的位涡负异常。在环渤海、朝鲜半岛南部和日本、日本以东洋面上,降水分别出现偏多、偏少和偏多现象。     

Assimilation of Feng-Yun-3B Satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder Data over Land

The ECMWF has been assimilating Feng-Yun-3B(FY-3B) satellite microwave humidity sounder(MWHS) data over ocean in an operational forecasting system since 24 September 2014. It is more difficult, however, to assimilate microwave observations over land and sea ice than over the open ocean due to higher uncertainties in land surface temperature, surface emissivity and less effective cloud screening. We compare approaches in which the emissivity is retrieved dynamically from MWHS channel 1 [150 GHz(vertical polarization)] with the use of an evolving emissivity atlas from 89 GHz observations from the MWHS onboard NOAA and EUMETSAT satellites. The assimilation of the additional data over land improves the fit of short-range forecasts to other observations, notably ATMS(Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) humidity channels, and the forecast impacts are mainly neutral to slightly positive over the first five days. The forecast impacts are better in boreal summer and the Southern Hemisphere. These results suggest that the techniques tested allow for effective assimilation of MWHS/FY-3B data over land.     

夏季黄河流域降水气候特征及其与大气环流的关系

本文基于1958—2015年夏季黄河流域55个观测站降水量和NCEP/NCAR再分析1高度场等资料,使用MannKendall突变检验、合成分析和Monte Carlo检验等气候统计方法,分析了黄河流域58年夏季降水量的气候变化特征,以及导致其变化的大气环流成因。58年期间,黄河流域夏季降水量总体呈减少趋势,尤其在河套北部有显著性减少趋势,其主要原因是欧亚中高纬度等压面升高、西风带减弱所致;1975年和1996年是黄河流域夏季降水的两个明显年代际气候变化转折点,在1958—1975年期间,黄河流域夏季降水量年际变化大,异常偏多和偏少年出现频次较高,期间欧亚中高纬度及其以南包括黄河流域地区高度场偏低,主要受高空低压系统和较强冷空气影响;在1976—1995年期间,黄河流域大部降水偏多,其主要环流成因为乌拉尔山阻塞高压发展、贝加尔湖到东北亚一带受负高度距平控制高空槽加深,同时,来自南方的暖湿气流输送增强;到1996—2015年最近20年间,乌拉尔山北部环流高度场偏低、里海至贝加尔湖再到东北亚一带高度场一致偏高,黄河流域一带西风带强度和冷空气势力均较弱,流域受高压影响导致大部区域降水偏少。不同时期黄河各流域段降水量与中高纬度阻塞高压以及与西北太平洋副热带高压的相关关系分析进一步说明了上述结论。     

北半球平流层极涡崩溃早晚的环流特征及其对5月南亚降水的影响

本文采用1979—2014年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料、CMAP和GPCP月平均降水资料,分析了北半球平流层极涡崩溃早晚的环流特征及其与南亚降水的关系。结果表明,北半球平流层极涡崩溃时间存在明显的年际变化特征。极涡崩溃偏早(偏晚)年,自3月开始异常信号从平流层向下传播,之后的4月,从平流层到对流层高层极区温度异常偏高(偏低),极涡异常偏弱(偏强),极夜急流异常偏弱(偏强)。结果还表明,5月南亚降水异常与平流层极涡崩溃时间的早晚存在显著相关,5月南亚降水异常与平流层极涡崩溃早晚年平流层异常信号的下传有关。当平流层极涡崩溃偏晚年,4月平流层极区表现为位势高度异常偏低,而中纬度则位势高度场异常偏高,并伴随位势高度异常场的向下传播,5月该位势高度异常场下传至阿拉伯海北部大陆上空对流层顶,形成有利于降水的环流场,导致南亚降水偏多。反之,则相反。     

海上风电吸力基础在分层土中的沉贯特性研究综述

吸力基础与海洋工程大直径钢桩相比,具有成本低、安装周期短、对环境影响小、不受海况影响及可回收再利用等优点,近年来在海上风电工程中得到推广应用。吸力基础沉贯至海床预定位置,是其发挥承载力和确保服役稳定性的前提。海床地基土体常以分层土形式分布,且各层土体强度、压缩性和渗透性等存在显著差别,导致吸力基础吸力沉贯机理非常复杂。明确吸力基础在分层土中沉贯特性,有助于指导吸力基础在海上风电工程中的推广应用。对目前吸力基础在分层土中沉贯特性研究进行综述和总结,归纳了其沉贯机理研究进展,并对影响吸力基础在分层土中沉贯因素进行了分析;提出了分层土中吸力基础沉贯的研究方向和改进的沉贯方法。     

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Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.     

宽频带流动地震台站中地震计浅井式安装研究

在井下地震观测中,各种地表背景噪声具有显著衰减作用,针对中国地震科学台阵现有大量非专用浅井式设计的Guralp CMG系列地震计,以及目前多个新获批项目在高背景噪声区域的观测需求,设计一种野外实用浅井观测方式,在北京国家地球观象台进行不同深度、不同井壁材质的观测对比实验,分析研究观测数据的背景噪声功率谱密度,结果表明,随着浅井深度的增加,地震背景噪声在垂直、水平向得到改善,改善程度随频率变化有所不同。分析认为,在华北现有地质环境下,6 m浅井是较为经济的观测方式,性价比高、占地小、施工简便,可用于后续多个项目的宽频带流动地震台阵观测。     

主动震源在中国区域尺度及水库地震监测中的应用

综述精密可控震源与陆上气枪2种主动震源特性及在国内区域尺度上的应用,估算观测介质波速随时间变化的精度,探讨主动震源在构建水库地震观测介质波速随时间变化中的系统应用。     

Effect of geometric and material discontinuities on the reeling of pipelines

The winding and unwinding of a pipeline onto a large diameter reel as practiced in the reeling installation method, induces bending strains of 1–3% followed by straightening, and reverse bending. The operator must ensure that such plastic deformations are sustained free of local buckling or rupture in the line. Such failures are for example precipitated by pipeline discontinuities in wall thickness and yield stress as they act as stress risers, lead to localized deformations severe enough to result in local buckling. The effect of such discontinuities is studied using a large-scale nonlinear finite element model that simulates the reeling/unreeling of a pipeline. Nonlinear kinematic hardening is used to capture the elasto-plastic behavior of the material imposed by the bending/reverse bending history. Discontinuities in wall thickness and yield stress are shown to result in sharp local changes in curvature that extend over 3–4 pipe diameters accompanied by severe local straining and ovalization. The extent of the disturbance is governed by the bending strain imposed by the ratio of pipe to reel diameter. It can be reduced by an increase in the applied tension but at the expense of additional ovalization of the pipeline. It can also be reduced by increasing the pipe wall thickness but with the consequent increase in costs. A parametric study of the effect of such discontinuities demonstrates that for some combinations of process parameters, the disturbance can lead to local buckling either during winding or unwinding. It is concluded that a modeling framework such as the one presented should be used to generate a design protocol for reel-installed pipelines.