Analysis of the extreme wave elevation due to second-order diffraction around a vertical cylinder

Statistical analysis of nonlinear random waves is important in coastal and ocean engineering. One approach for modeling nonlinear waves is second-order random wave theory, which involves sum- and difference-frequency interactions between wave components. The probability distribution of the non-Gaussian surface elevation can be solved using a technique developed by Kac and Siegert [21]. The wave field can be significantly modified by wave diffraction due to a structure, and the nonlinear diffracted wave elevation can be of interest in certain applications, such as the airgap prediction for an offshore structure. This paper investigates the wave statistics due to second-order diffraction, motivated by the scarcity of prior research. The crossing rate approach is used to evaluate the extreme wave elevation over a specified duration. The application is a bottom-supported cylindrical structure, for which semi-analytical solutions for the second-order transfer functions are available. A new efficient statistical method is developed to allow the distribution of the diffracted wave elevation to be obtained exactly, accounting for the statistical dependency between the linear, sum-frequency and difference-frequency components. Moreover, refinements are proposed to improve the efficiency for computing the free surface integral. The case study yields insights into the problem. In particular, the second-order nonlinearity is found to significantly amplify the extreme wave elevation, especially in the upstream region; conversely, the extreme elevation at an oblique location downstream is attenuated due to sheltering effects. The statistical dependency between the linear and sum-frequency components is also shown to be important for the extreme wave statistics.     

A stochastic method for the prediction of icebreaker bow extreme stresses

It is well established that the ship-ice interaction process is quite complex and associated ice loads on the icebreaker hull is a stochastic process. Obviously, novel accurate statistical methods and models should be developed and applied to estimate extreme bow stresses.This paper studies icebreaker bow stresses based on measured distribution of ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean on the way to and from the North Pole. Since the vessel route was carefully selected searching for easier ice conditions, the Arctic Ocean crossing was not a straight linear but a meandering path. Thus, the specific ship route data was biased with respect to general ice statistics in the region, but true with respect to the route specific ice data encountered by a ship navigating in that region. Therefore the route specific ice thickness data is directly needed for ship design and navigation analysis. It is assumed that captains are competent and knowledgeable, and therefore will select a route that provides the most favourable ice conditions.This paper contributes to study of the newest Chinese self-designed polar icebreaker, serving the purpose of enhancing icebreaker operational reliability. Finite Element Method software package ANSYS/LS-DYNA has been employed to simulate bow stress pattern for a particular icebreaker operating in the Arctic Ocean. Extreme bow stresses were estimated using Naess-Gaidai method. The latter is a first application of Naess-Gaidai method to a distribution with lower bound. Thus this paper aims at introducing an efficient method of estimating route-specific icebreaker extreme bow stresses.     

长山群岛海洋渔业资源的平均营养级变化特征

根据长山群岛 1965-2016 年渔业统计资料,分析长山群岛海域主要捕捞渔获物产量、平均营养级 （Mean trophic level, MTL）、渔业均衡指数 （Fishing in balance index,FiB） 年际变化,探讨其海洋渔业资源利用状况,并利用小波分析方法研究52年来渔获物 MTL 周期变化特征。研究表明： （1） 长山群岛捕捞产量、MTL 和 FiB 指数呈阶段性变化; （2） 长山群岛渔业资源开发经历初期开发、扩张捕捞、过度捕捞、资源破坏等四个阶段,渔业资源环境正在逐渐恶化;（3） 受人类捕捞活动影响,MTL 在 15~19 年和 24~34 年两种时间尺度下呈周期波动,30 年为第一主周期,17 年为第二主周期。长山群岛渔业资源破坏日益严重,未来几年平均营养级将呈下降趋势。为防止渔业资源进一步衰退,应加强捕捞活动管理力度,落实海洋渔业资源保护制度;完善预警机制,构建海洋渔业资源监测系统;同时应积极调整长山群岛渔业产业结构,提高资源产出效率.     

基于层次分析法的南麂列岛海域人工鱼礁社会效果评价

人工鱼礁建设具有生态效果、经济效果和社会效果。为科学指导人工鱼礁的建设方向,进一步促进海洋牧场建设以及海洋渔业资源和海洋生态环境的可持续发展,文章采用改进的层次分析法,从人工鱼礁与社会的适应性、对社会环境的影响、对社会生活的影响以及对其他行业发展的影响4个方面,选取政策符合性等10个评价指标,通过问卷调查的方式,对南麂列岛海域人工鱼礁的社会效果进行评价,填补该研究领域的空白。研究结果表明:根据各评价指标的权重和效果判定值,南麂列岛海域人工鱼礁产生了较好的社会效果,其中海洋生态环境、项目长远性、改善渔民生活质量和海洋捕捞业等指标发挥作用较大;未来将开展长期和连续的调查研究,提高评价可信度。     

近12年北京暖季对流天气的气候特征

对北京地区1994～2005年暖季(5～9月)雷暴、冰雹、暴雨和大风等各种对流天气进行了气候统计和分析。统计结果表明:北京地区暖季发生对流的概率很高,按日数统计的气候概率达47.77%,有雷暴相伴的强对流天气大风、暴雨和冰雹气候概率分别为27.29%、10.84%和6.29%。另外,北京地区对流天气一般可连续出现3 d,强对流天气也可连续出现2 d。北京地区对流季节长达4个月,其中6、7、8月为主要的对流月,这三个月中雷暴发生的气候概率均超过50%。暴雨多发季节为7月中旬到8月上旬。冰雹集中于6月中、下旬。在对流天气的地理分布上,北京西北部、东北部山区及西南部山区多对流天气,中心区和东南部平原地区对流天气较少。暴雨呈西南-东北方向带状分布,东北部山区、中部和东南部平原地区多发生暴雨,而西北部和西南部山区很少发生暴雨。山区冰雹明显多于平原。西北部和东北部山区大风偏多,西南部霞云岭大风最少。暴雨有明显的夜发性,即夜间次数多,降水量更大。冰雹集中发生在午后到傍晚,占冰雹总站次的76.72%。夜间发生冰雹的概率非常小,上午到中午也不多。     

香坊老工业区搬迁改造监测分析

利用地理信息技术及遥感监测方法,监测香坊老工业区搬迁改造试点进展情况,主要针对搬迁改造过程中地表覆盖、用地性质、空气质量变化情况,开展综合统计分析,客观评价香坊老工业搬迁改造实施成效。     

Photographic photometry for stellar statistics with Tautenburg Schmidt telescope

Photometric properties of deep Tautenburg Schmidt plates in the UBV system over the whole field and over a wide range of stellar magnitudes are discussed. Different reduction models based on the calibration curve alone and with additional terms containing colour and plate coordinates are considered. With the filter-emulsion combinations used the Johnson UBV system can be reproduced quite well by the Tautenburg telescope. The accuracy of photometric data can be improved if geometrical terms are taken into account. For deep plates with a significant effect of background nebulosity a supplementary term is to be included in the reduction model. The polynomial coefficients vary in dependence on spectral bands and individual properties of each plate.     

福建长乐西施舌资源现状及保护成效研究

2018年4月在“福建省长乐海蚌资源增殖保护区”及其邻近海域布设31个站位进行底拖网调查取样,共鉴定渔获物45种,其中甲壳类21种、贝类14种、鱼类10种。西施舌（Mactra antiquata）的站位出现率为38.71%。站位的质量密度平均为975.68 kg/km²（0～23 384.53 kg/km²）,个数密度平均为2.983×10⁴个/km²（0～59.607×10⁴个/km²）。西施舌种群在渔获物中的IRI值高达 1 556.5 \[仅次于截形白樱蛤(Psammacoma gubernaculum)],为优势种,表明西施舌在保护区生物资源组成中占有重要的地位;保护区内西施舌的站位出现率及质量密度明显高于区外,表明西施舌资源主要集中分布于保护区范围内;西施舌种群的年龄组分布较广,年龄结构较为合理。大部分西施舌均达到性成熟年龄和大小,表明资源具有可持续发展的潜力。与2006年和2012年的调查结果相比,保护区2018年西施舌资源比2012年有显著提高,分布范围亦有明显扩大,但尚未恢复到2006年的总体水平。综上可以看出,西施舌资源保护区范围总体界定合理,西施舌资源保护显见成效;“福建省长乐海蚌资源增殖保护区”范围内不同区块实行不同程度的禁捕、限捕管控,2011年以来累计放流西施舌种苗253.07万粒,对于西施舌资源恢复和养护管理是有效的举措。     

基于珠海实证的城市旅游增长极限分析框架

城市旅游是城市的一个开放、高流动的子系统,在一定时期内是相对稳定,有增长极限的。城市旅游增长极限受到供需极限影响,当旅游需求超过供给时,出现过度旅游;而当供给超过需求,就会导致过度旅游化。城市旅游需求增长极限呈现阶梯式,只有当影响城市旅游需求增长的长期因素发生持续重大变化时,城市旅游需求增长才可能突破原有的极限,进入一个新的阶段。城市旅游需求极限规定了城市旅游供给极限,决定了城市在一定时期内适合开发的景区、酒店、餐饮、购物等旅游设施规模。本文基于珠海的实证分析表明,过去十几年,由于旅游供需两方面影响因素缺乏持续重大的变化,城市功能和地位、城市主题和特色等因素相对稳定,加之受到区域其他城市的激烈竞争,珠海中高端旅游需求相对稳定,星级酒店等中高端旅游产品面临增长极限。此时,新增旅游景区和星级酒店并不会带来过夜旅游需求的实质增长,反而可能加剧现阶段旅游供需的失衡,造成过度旅游化。本文也讨论了超越旅游极限的条件以及旅游增长与旅游发展的关系,并进一步建议了旅游统计的改革举措。     

渤海中、南部表层沉积硅藻的定量分析

对取自渤海中、南部海底表层的44个沉积物样品进行了硅藻分析。样品中共含硅藻20属41种,主要是潮间带、沿岸性底栖或浮游种类,其中尤以具槽直链藻Melosira sulc-ata和小环藻Cyclotella最多见。对本区的表层沉积硅藻用多元统计方法进行分区,共划分出三区、两亚区,井与其他海区进行了比较。