欠压实地层古地层压力恢复的统计模拟法及其在松辽盆地中的应用

恢复烃源岩古地层压力和对于研究其生留排烃过程具有重要意义。Ｎａｋａｙａｍａ［１］等在开展盆地模拟研究时应用Ｒｕｂｅｙ（１９５９）和Ｃｈａｐｍａｎ（１９７）等人提出的数学地质模型对欠压实地层的古地层压力进行恢复。本文通过对松辽盆地欠压实地层的研究发现欠压实因子随地层厚度、埋深、围岩渗透性等地质条件的不同而改变，在此基础上提出了欠压实地层压力恢复的统计模拟法，克服了目前Ｎａｋａｙａｍａ［１］等将地层埋藏过程中的欠压实因子视为常数的不足，从而使计算结果更接近实际。统计模拟法在松辽盆地的应用结果表明了这一方法在实用中的可行性和有效性。     

Statistical analysis of the position of the monsoon trough

Using surface charts at 0330GMT, the movement of the monsoon trough during the months June to September 1990 at two fixed longitudes, namely 79°E and 85°E, is studied. The probability distribution of trough position shows that the median, mean and mode occur at progressively more northern latitudes, especially at 85°E, with a pronounced mode that is close to the northern-most limit reached by the trough. A spectral analysis of the fluctuating latitudinal position of the trough is carried out using FFT and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Both methods show significant peaks around 7.5 and 2.6 days, and a less significant one around 40–50 days. The two peaks at the shorter period are more prominent at the eastern longitude. MEM shows an additional peak around 15 days. A study of the weather systems that occurred during the season shows them to have a duration around 3 days and an interval between systems of around 9 days, suggesting a possible correlation with the dominant short periods observed in the spectrum of trough position.     

中国地质统计学（空间信息统计学）发展的回顾与前景

讨论了地质统计学（空间信息统计学）发展的若干问题，其内容包括４部分：１．地质统计学的理论及方法；２．关于软件系统的现状；３．关于实际应用；４．地质统计学发展前景的若干看法。     

普通克里格法在矿产储量计算中的应用

普通克里格法能充分利用样品信息，有效地提高块段平均品位及矿产储量精度。以刁泉银铜矿为实例，介绍了该方法的理论和方法应用以及储量计算流程图。     

济南、福山太阳辐射的气候学特征分析

利用济南、福山地面太阳辐射资料，分析了太阳辐射的气候变化特征。结果表明，60到90年代，济南地面太阳总辐射量、直接辐射量呈显著减少趋势，福山变化趋势不明显；90年代以后，济南地面太阳总辐射呈增多趋势。     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

鲁西南深埋粘性土物理力学指标多元统计研究

运用R因子分析和R型聚类两种多元统计分析方法,对鲁西南地区深埋粘性土的20组样的8个物理力学指标数据进行了分析。利用R因子分析方法,揭示了各指标对鲁西南地区深埋粘性土状态和力学性质的影响关系。利用R型聚类分析方法,研究了深部粘性土各物理力学指标之间的相关性,为进一步从物理力学指标对深埋粘性土的特殊状态和力学特性的研究打下基础。     

太湖生态环境演化及其原因分析

太湖地处长江下游三角洲,水域面积为2338km²,平均水深1.9m,最大水深不足2.6m,为一典型的大型浅水湖泊。太湖流域地势平坦,河网密布,河湖水力关系复杂。其主要补给径流来自西南部的天目山区及西部的宜溧河流域。每年夏天,大部分入湖洪水通过位于东太湖的太浦河及东北部的望虞河分别排入黄浦江与长江,由于出入湖河道的特殊位置,使得太湖南部的换水周期较短而北部较长。近几十年来,太湖由于污染而逐步呈现富营养化特征,污染物主要来自北部的无锡市和常州市,通过河道排入太湖北部的五里湖与梅梁湾,因此上述两地的水质较南部差。在东太湖,水产养殖对水环境的影响很大,亦呈现出富营养化特征,并殃及该地区的供水,加之该地区为太湖主要的泄洪通道,因此泥沙淤积严重,而且水生植物生长旺盛,呈现出明显的沼泽化趋势;在太湖四周地区,由于湖泊围垦和水利工程建设,其污染净化能力将降低,从而加速水环境恶化的趋势。太湖所面临这些问题,有待于强化湖泊科学管理来解决。     

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.     

Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.