Stock assessment for Atlantic yellowfin tuna based on extended surplus production model considering life history

The modern fishery stock assessment could be conducted by various models, such as Stock Synthesis model with high data requirement and complicated model structure, and the basic surplus production model, which fails to incorporate individual growth, maturity, and fishery selectivity, etc. In this study, the Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment (JABBA) Select which is relatively balanced between complex and simple models, was used to conduct stock assessment for yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Atlantic Ocean. Its population dynamics was evaluated, considering the influence of selectivity patterns and different catch per unit effort (CPUE) indices on the stock assessment results. The model with three joint longline standardized CPUE indices and logistic selectivity pattern performed well, without significant retrospective pattern. The results indicated that the stock is not overfished and not subject to overfishing in 2018. Sensitivity analyses indicated that stock assessment results are robust to natural mortality but sensitive to steepness of the stock-recruitment relationship and fishing selectivity. High steepness was revealed to be more appropriate for this stock, while the fishing selectivity has greater influence to the assessment results than life history parameters. Overall, JABBA-Select is suitable for the stock assessment of Atlantic yellowfin tuna with different selectivity patterns, and the assumptions of natural mortality and selectivity pattern should be improved to reduce uncertainties.     

海洋牧场背景下的休闲渔业旅游发展模式研究

近年来随着产业融合的发展趋势显著,第一产业和第二产业开始向第三产业转型,海洋牧场建设发展过程中渔业与旅游业逐渐融合发展形成休闲渔业等渔业旅游形式。许多地区因地制宜形成了不同的休闲渔业发展模式,休闲渔业旅游发展多元化的趋势也在逐渐形成。文章对休闲渔业的概念进行了阐述,介绍了休闲渔业的产生与发展,并对我国休闲渔业的旅游模式进行归纳,提出当前休闲渔业发展存在的问题。如:发展观念滞后,缺乏长远规划;海洋休闲渔业产业结构单一;缺乏高素质的从业人员;科技、资金投入不足等。最后总结了海洋牧场背景下休闲渔业的未来发展趋势并对发展方向提出建议。     

渤海湾渔业碳汇分析与预测初探

为了解渤海湾近十年来渔业碳汇能力,本研究汇总了渤海湾地区2010-2020年海水养殖的品种和产量。通过建立不同养殖品种固碳能力评估体系,计算了不同养殖品种对渔业碳汇的贡献和渤海湾近十年海水养殖固碳总量。结果表明,2010-2020年渤海湾海水养殖以池塘养殖为主要养殖模式,年固碳量从2010年的5.79万吨增至2020年的11.04万吨,十年内共计固碳96.0万吨,平均碳转化比为12.5%,其中山东省贡献超过65%。该探索对建立“渔业碳汇”计算的指标体系、科学发展碳汇渔业、提升海洋碳汇生态价值具有一定的指导意义。     

长牡蛎繁殖期糖原含量与类胰岛素基因表达的相关性分析

为探究长牡蛎在繁殖期间的糖原含量与类胰岛素基因(cgMIP123、cgMIP4、cgMILP7、cgILP)和相关转录调控因子(cgPdx)相对表达量的相关性,自2020年5月至2020年10月采集了山东胶南养殖海区的长牡蛎,测定了血糖含量、糖原含量、条件指数、类胰岛素基因相对表达量及环境因子(酸度、温度、盐度)等数据,采用多元统计方法对数据进行分析。logistic回归分析结果显示,长牡蛎配子排放前后血糖含量和内脏团糖原含量具有显著差异。构建的回归模型可以通过血糖含量和内脏团糖原含量准确判断配子是否已经排放,区分度C-index为0.903,Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验χ²值为9.06,P>0.05,验证结果显示该模型可靠。多元线性回归分析结果显示:条件指数与cgMIP123和cgMIP4基因的相对表达量具有相关性,R²为0.91,P值为0.0076,极显著相关;内脏团和唇瓣组织的糖原含量与ILPs和cgPdx相对表达量具有一定的相关性,其中cgMILP7的相对表达量与内脏团和唇瓣组织的糖原含量呈负相关,cgPdx相对表达量与唇瓣组织的糖原含量呈负相关,cgMIP4和cgILP的相对表达量与糖原含量呈正相关。     

上海地区基于静力触探的液化判别分析

上海地区(及其他软土地区)以静探触探作为岩土工程勘察的主要原位测试手段,积累了大量的工程数据,其结果稳定可靠,重现性好,具客观性。采用上海地区静探液化判别方法,对收集的大量资料进行统计分析,以期通过静探Ps值快速、简单地作出地基土是否液化的初步判断,有效指导勘察设计工作。     

Evaluation of Three Harvest Control Rules for Bigeye Tuna（Thunnus obesus） Fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna（Thunnus obesus） in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission（IOTC）, does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i） constant fishing mortality（CF）, from 0.2 to 0.6, ii） constant catch（CC）, from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii） constant escapement（CE）, from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ（SS3）. Three simulation scenarios（low, medium and high productivity） were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives（over 3, 10 and 25 years）： i） the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield（MSY） on average, ii） the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii） inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy（CE=0.5）, constant fishing mortality strategy（F=0.4） and constant catch（CC=80000） were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable＇ balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission(IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality(CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch(CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement(CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ(SS3). Three simulation scenarios(low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives(over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield(MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy(CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy(F=0.4) and constant catch(CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

Methods of setting depth range with credibility of conductor for deepwater drilling based on probability statistics

Becasuse of the deep water depth and long riser of deepwater drilling, the stability of subsea wellhead is threatened. Meanwhile, the setting depth of conductor directly affects the mechanical stability of subsea wellhead. Through analyzing the impact of different factors on the setting depth of conductor, we found that the bearing capacity growth factor of subsea soil has a great influence on the setting depth of conductor. However, the coefficient is a regional and empirical constant, which seriously affects the accuracy and reliability of the results. In this paper, probability statistics and geostatistics methods are employed to count the bearing capacity growth factor of target point's adjacent wells, as well as transplant and predict the target point through differential arithmetic, which can obtain the predictive value of target point's coefficient containing probability information. Finally, we can obtain the setting depth range with credibility of conductor. This is conducive to designers to calculate the setting depth of conductor with other uncertain factors taken into account, and reasonably control the potential risks.     

Perceptions and preferences of commercial fishers for dedicated access privilege framework in a multispecies fishery

The decline of the world's fisheries and the inability of traditional management frameworks to maintain them, has led managers to adopt alternative management frameworks. The use of dedicated access privileges have often been shown to have varying popularity among factions within the commercial fishing industry and managers. Here, we examine commercial fishers' preference for alternative management frameworks in the context of a unique multispecies fisheries of the Florida Keys. By surveying commercial fishers, we find that that the size of operation plays no role in affecting fisher perception regarding dedicated access privileges. Furthermore, fishers who are organized are less likely to support dedicated access privilege frameworks. Overall, we do not find enough support in the fishing industry for the implementation of dedicated access privileges in the Florida Keys. These findings can provide inputs in developing effective management plans in the region.     

Fishers' perceptions,facilitating factors and challenges of community-based no-take zones in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve,Quintana Roo,Mexico

In response to fisheries decline in the Mexican Caribbean and continuing deterioration of the Mesoamerican Reef, conservation NGOs have begun to negotiate and collaboratively design a network of no-take zones (NTZs) with three fishing cooperatives in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve (SKBR), among other places along the coast of Quintana Roo. Spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) is the target of the main fishery within cooperative concessions. Fishers are uniquely positioned to enforce and monitor NTZs and evaluate their effectiveness. This study analyzes fishers' perceptions as indicators of social acceptance of NTZs, and identifies facilitating factors and challenges of the community-based process. Consistent with similar studies, responses of fishers (89 out of a population of 124) to a semi-structured interview showed that perceptions of NTZs largely reflect fishers' concerns and interests. A high proportion of fishers accurately identified main NTZ objectives of regulation, conservation and economic improvement, as well as NTZ locations. Further, fishers cared about ecosystem sustainability and, because NTZs would not significantly limit their main economic activity, endorsed the initiative while expecting additional benefits. Declining trends in lobster catch influenced a perceived need for NTZs. Major concerns were that illegal fishers would reap NTZ benefits and that economic impacts and benefits were uncertain. Most fishers found the decision-making process inclusive, were willing to take responsibility for enforcing NTZs and believed people leading the process were trustworthy. Differences in endorsement of NTZs among cooperatives points to the importance of understanding fishers’ incentives to collaborate, and the leadership and organizational dynamics which shape participatory processes. This analysis highlights challenges in advancing NTZs in complex ecological, socio-economic and regulatory contexts. It underscores the need for community-based processes that transcend understanding of conservation measures but also invests in sustainable, operative and trustful working relationships, as well as the urgency of interdisciplinary approaches in ensuring effective design and implementation of this relatively new fishery management tool.