A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.     

正态分布检验在地下水检测质量控制中的应用

对地下水调查中37种必测组分检测过程的替代物进行筛选,应用D’Agostino法对替代物的测量结果进行正态性检验。利用正态分布函数"3σ"原则,定义了各替代物质量控制指标的有效区间。应用正态函数随机变量的数学期望和方差,计算得到各替代物有效区间内的正态函数分布概率均大于97%,替代物过程能力指数计算结果表明,二溴氟代甲烷、甲苯-d8、对溴氟苯、1,2-二氯苯-d4、氟苯等挥发性有机污染物分析过程选用的替代物质量控制过程处于稳定的监控状态;2,4,5,6-四氯间二甲苯、二丁基氯菌酸酯、p-三联苯、十氯联苯等半挥发性有机污染物分析过程选用的替代物监控指标分析过程能力不足。建议参考美国EPA方法中有关监控指标质量控制区间的要求,适当放宽对半挥发性有机物检测流程中选用的替代物质量控制区间的有效范围。正态分布在地下水检测过程质量控制中的应用,为实验室检测过程的质量管理提供了科学、有效的数学依据。     

A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Spatial Breakdown Point of Variogram Estimators

In the context of robust statistics, the breakdown point of an estimator is an important feature of reliability. It measures the highest fraction of contamination in the data that an estimator can support before being destroyed. In geostatistics, variogram estimators are based on measurements taken at various spatial locations. The classical notion of breakdown point needs to be extended to a spatial one, depending on the construction of most unfavorable configurations of perturbation. Explicit upper and lower bounds are available for the spatial breakdown point in the regular unidimensional case. The difficulties arising in the multidimensional case are presented on an easy example in IR² , as well as some simulations on irregular grids. In order to study the global effects of perturbations on variogram estimators, further simulations are carried out on data located on a regular or irregular bidimensional grid. Results show that if variogram estimation is performed with a 50% classical breakdown point scale estimator, the number of initial data likely to be contaminated before destruction of the estimator is roughly 30% on average. Theoretical results confirm the previous statement on data in IR^d , d 1.     

Quantitative textural analysis of packings of elongate crystals

The spatial distribution of grains in a solidifying igneous rock controls the physical properties of the crystal mush, and in turn is controlled by the rate of crystal growth and accumulation. A predominant non-spherical habit for igneous minerals brings into question the use of spherical particles in reference packings used for quantification of spatial distribution. Furthermore, variations of crystal clustering/ordering with length scale require spatial statistics which take into account the distribution of particles beyond nearest neighbours. Using random close packings of spherocylinders, we demonstrate the importance of aspect ratio for the aggregation index (usually known as R) and show that packings of spherical particles have more structure than packings of rods. The spatial distribution functions demonstrate that the plagioclase grains in the colonnade from the Holyoke basalt are clustered on a length scale of 0.5 mm. Understanding the controls on grain spatial distribution in igneous rocks will depend on the application of these techniques to well-understood environments.     

High resolution paleoenvironmental and chronological investigations of Norse landnám at Tasiusaq, Eastern Settlement, Greenland

High-resolution paleoenvironmental data from a peat profile with a small pollen source area are used to reconstruct the impacts of landnám on vegetation and soils at a Norse farm complex (∅2 at Tasiusaq) comprising two farms in the Eastern Settlement of Greenland. Analyses include the AMS ¹⁴C dating of plant macrofossil samples and the use of Bayesian radiocarbon calibration to construct improved age-depth models for Norse cultural horizons. The onset of a regional landnám may be indicated by the clearance of Betula pubescens woodland immediately prior to local settlement. The latter is dated to AD 950-1020 (2σ) and is characterised by possible burning of Betula glandulosa scrub to provide grassland pasture for domestic stock. Clearance and grazing resulted in accelerated levels of soil erosion at a westerly farm. This was followed by an easterly migration of settlement and agriculture. Site constraints prevent an assessment of the demise of the easterly farm, but pressures of overgrazing and land degradation may have been the major factors responsible for the abandonment of the earlier farm.     

海南岭壳铜(银-金)矿床地质特征及找矿方向

岭壳铜(银-金)矿床赋存于白垩纪岭壳村组流纹质角砾凝灰熔岩和早白垩世花岗闪长岩中.目前已发现11条铜(银-金)矿(化)体,矿体的产出严格受断裂破碎带控制,与成矿关系密切的围岩蚀变呈现出自东(20线)向西的钾化→绢云母化→强高岭石化、绿泥石化蚀变分带,矿化相应呈现从铜(金)向铜(银)的过渡.根据其对称性的蚀变分带,应加强20线以东的地质找矿;根据成矿元素分形和统计研究发现,Au,Ag矿化具有专属性,即在流纹质凝灰熔岩中寻找Cu,Ag矿,而在花岗闪长岩中以寻找Cu,Au矿为主.     

基于VBA的储层评价数据处理方法

针对储层评价工作中存在数据处理繁琐、易出错的问题,根据参数间的内在关系,利用Excel内嵌的VBA语言编写了储层评价数据处理程序.该程序以井斜数据、井数据、分层数据、砂体数据、测井解释成果表及夹层数据为基础,分析储层评价工作中数据间的关系,设计了相应的算法,实现了井斜校正、按层统计砂体厚度及计算砂地比、夹层统计、自动扣除夹层及有效厚度计算、储层特征参数和储量计算参数集总、坐标添加及常用绘图软件数据格式转化等功能.     

Geochemical characterization of karst groundwater in the cradle of humankind world heritage site,South Africa

The karst of the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site plays a major role in the assimilation or carrying of acid mine drainage, sewage effluent return flow and agricultural run-off. Infiltration of contaminated water has altered the chemical composition of the natural waters of the karst system. A multivariate statistical method in combination with conventional geochemical and spatial analysis was applied on groundwater and surface water quality samples to determine the spatial extent of hydrochemical impacts from different anthropogenic sources. The application of hierarchical cluster analysis of the major ions (148 samples) recognised three distinct hydrochemical regimes. Cluster 1 is moderately mineralized, especially with regard to chloride, nitrate and sulphate, cluster 2 has a low mineralization with all elements well within the recommended drinking water limits of South Africa and cluster 3 represents highly mineralized samples taken in the vicinity of decanting mineshafts. The cluster solution is confirmed by a simple mixing model, indicating varying contributions of three identified end members (acid mine drainage, treated sewage effluents and pristine dolomitic groundwater) to the groundwater quality in the catchment. The combination of statistical, geochemical and spatial methods in conjunction with end-member mixing analysis provides a reliable method to understand the processes responsible for the groundwater quality variations and to assist in the identification of anthropogenic impacts.