水汽场初值调整及其对华南降水预报贡献的研究

该文利用GMS多通道气象卫星资料推导得到的降水资料估算出的加热率, 作为非绝热的非线性正规模初始化过程中的非绝热强迫项, 进行风压场的初值调整, 再采用一个与模式中的对流参数化方案相反的逆运算方案, 进行水汽场的初值调整.以保证初始时刻按模式的物理参数化方案计算得到的加热率与由卫星推导的加热率一致. 这一方法在非绝热的非线性正规模初值化的框架中, 使初始时刻的水汽场得到调整.既实现了传统的初始化目标, 又提高了模式对降水的短时预报效果.对华南的两个个例的试验结果表明该文的方法是有效的.     

Temporal Characteristics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO and Their Relationship Analyzed with Method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)

1. IntroductionPacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-termENSO-like variability of the North Pacific. It can becharacterized by the first principal component of EOFof the North Pacific SST (Zhu and Yang, 2003; Tren-berth, 1990; Yang and Zhang, 2003). ENSO is thestrongest signal of annular change of global climatesystem (Trenberth, 1997). The spatial pattern of PDOis a wedge similar to El Nino. In the cool (warm)phases of PDO, the central and northwest Pacific is ofwarm (co…     

The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

This study evaluates the fidelity of Arctic and Antarctic oscillations (AO and AAO for short,respectively) in the coupled general circulation models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4).The AO and AAO during 1970-1999 in 24 models are analyzed and compared with that in ERA-40 and NCEP-1.Models'performance is seasonally dependent,with best reproducibility of both spatial structure and trend in winter.In most models,the spatial pattern and temporal trend of AAO during this period are more delicately simulated than AO.After picking out models with better performance according to the Taylor diagram,we find that their ensemble mean can obviously improve models'reproducibility.The AO and AAO in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B Projection during the 21st century are also briefly analyzed.The results reveal that both the AO and AAO indices keep increasing during 1970-2099,with a steadier pace of AO than AAO.The spatial difference of sea level pressure between 2060 2089 and 1970-1999 shows decreased values in polar regions,and increased values in midlatitudes.The results manifest that the ozone recovery during the mid 21st century may not weaken such a trend.     

CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估

本研究利用第五次国际间耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, CMIP5)中的24个模式的工业革命前控制试验(Pre-industrial Control, picontrol)模拟结果, 结合观测资料, 评估了24个CMIP5 模式对东太平洋热带辐合带偶极子(Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole, EPID)降水模态的模拟能力, 并建立了其与模式对热带太平洋气候态模拟之间的联系。结果表明: 1) 绝大多数模式在北半球春季(2—4月)对EPID模态模拟能力较差, 主要原因在于CMIP5模式对热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ)的模拟偏差, 其中模拟效果较差的模式在2—4月的气候态降水分布在赤道以南, 且降水普遍偏强; 2) 对各模式的EPID模态选取的季节按照技巧评分最高进行调整后, 大部分模式能较好地模拟出EPID模态的空间分布特点, 技巧评分在0.6以上, 其中模拟效果好的模式(技巧评分大于0.7)中EPID模态出现的月份同时在中东太平洋气候态表现出“双ITCZ”特征, 且多模式集合结果的模拟误差小于绝大多数模式。     

GNSS转发式欺骗干扰方法的改进

针对GNSS多天线转发式欺骗干扰在实际应用中,当干扰机与目标机距离大于一定范围时,将引起目标机钟差突跳,从而易被目标机检测和识别的缺陷,提出了基于干扰机阵列的转发式欺骗干扰新方法。干扰机阵列按照正六边形网型布设,可实现目标区域的无缝覆盖,并且灵活易拓展。不论目标机位于区域的任何位置,均有一个最优干扰机能够对其实施有效干扰。为了确定相邻干扰机的最优间距,本文在干扰机阵列不同间距下对具有钟差突跳自适应检测能力的目标机的干扰有效性进行了仿真研究。结论表明,综合考虑各种约束因素,相邻干扰机最优间距为17 km,满足该条件的干扰机阵列在实施欺骗干扰过程中,不会造成目标机钟差突跳,有效解决了该干扰方式易被目标机识别的问题。     

基于WalkGIS的地形数据建库加工整理模式

以1∶500基础地理信息数据加工整理模式为研究对象,对数据整理的技术要求和整理方法进行了清晰的阐述,总结出一套基于WalkGIS平台的基础地理信息数据库建库数据加工整理模式,为数据整理工作提供参考。     

风廓线雷达大气风场观测误差分析

依据风廓线雷达工作原理和风的计算公式,分析影响大气风场观测误差的主要因素,重点分析了雷达回波SNR对风的观测精度影响和GPS探空对比试验。结果表明:①风速观测精度主要取决于波束倾角、雷达技术参数和大气折射率结构常数C2n的垂直分布;风速及风速观测精度越大,风向观测精度越大。②在同种观测模式下,波束倾角与C2n越大,风场观测精度越高。③同一观测模式的SNR越大,风速观测误差越小;不同模式间的大气风场观测精度相差较大。④对比试验的风速风向相关性较好,但相对偏差较大,尤其低空更为明显。     

Algorithm for Harmonic Tidal Analysis along T/P Tracks： Taking Differences of Observed Sea Surface Heights at Adjacent Points as Observations

An algorithm （differential mode） is presented for the improvement of harmonic tidal analysis along T/P tracks, in which the differences between the observed sea surface heights at adjacent points are taken as observations. Also, the observation equations are constrained with the results of the crossover analysis; the parameter estimations are performed at 0.1° latitude intervals by the least squares. Cycle 10 to 330 T/P altimeter data covering the China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean （2°-50° N,105°-150° E） are adopted for a refined along-track harmonic tidal analysis, and harmonic constants of 12 constituents in 8 474 points are obtained, which indicates that the algorithm can efficiently remove non-tidal effects in the altimeter observations, and improve the precision of tide parameters. Moreover, parameters along altimetry tracks represent a smoother distribution than those obtained by traditional algorithms. The root mean squares of the fitting errors between the tidal height model and the observations reduce from 11 cm to 1.3 cm.     

An Aerosol Model of the Marine and Coastal Atmospheric Surface Layer

We present a microphysical model for the surface layer marine and coastal atmospheric aerosols that is based on long-term observations of size distributions for 0.01–100 µm particles. The fundamental feature of the model is a parameterization of amplitudes and widths for aerosol modes of the aerosol size distribution function (ASDF) as functions of fetch and wind speed. The shape of ASDF and its dependence on meteorological parameters, height above sea level (H), fetch (X), wind speed (U) and relative humidity (RH), are investigated. At present, the model covers the ranges H = 0–25 m, U?=?3–18 km s^?1, X?≤?120 km and RH?=?40–98%.

The latest version of the Marine Aerosol Extinction Profiles model (MaexPro) is described and applied to the computation and analysis of the spectral profiles of aerosol extinction coefficients α(λ) in the wavelength band λ?=?0.2–12 µm. MaexPro is based on the aforementioned aerosol model assuming spherically shaped aerosol particles and the well-known Mie theory.

The spectral profiles of α(λ) calculated by MaexPro are in good agreement with observational data and the numerical results obtained from the Navy Aerosol Model (NAM) and the Advanced Navy Aerosol Model (ANAM). Moreover, MaexPro was found to be an accurate and reliable tool for investigating the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols.     

溯河洄游长江刀鲚(Coilia nasus)摄食虾类的调查

刀鲚(Coilia nasus)是长江的名贵经济鱼类.虽然传统上认为其溯河生殖洄游全过程不会摄食,但该问题一直尚未完全弄清.作为有效解明这一问题的第一步,本研究在前期长江流域干流和湖泊刀鲚资源调查的基础上,先利用耳石微化学技术筛选出长江河口区、江苏江段、安徽江段和鄱阳湖水域溯河洄游型的刀鲚个体,再对其胃、肠容物的大型游泳动物(鱼、虾类)进行调查分析.结果发现,在河口区、江苏和安徽江段所有刀鲚个体胃充塞度为0级,均未发现摄食有游泳动物;而鄱阳湖水域刀鲚个体的胃充塞度达4~5级,均发现有摄食淡水虾类的日本沼虾(Macrobrachium nipponense)和秀丽白虾(Exopalaemon modestus)的情况.其中29%和71%的刀鲚胃中分别含有1只和2只虾.所有刀鲚个体肠内均未发现有内容物.鉴于鄱阳湖已被确定为溯河洄游型刀鲚的产卵场之一,结果表明长江刀鲚在经河口,通过长江江苏和安徽江段干流到达鄱阳湖产卵场的过程中应该不会摄食大型游泳动物;而进入鄱阳湖产卵场后会开始摄食日本沼虾和秀丽白虾.这种两阶段的现象可能反映出了刀鲚的一种在洄游通道上节约能量,以利长距离溯河;而在产卵场补充能量,以利于性腺最终成熟的生存策略.