中国钨矿成矿地质特征与资源潜力分析

钨矿是中国传统优势矿种,前人在钨矿成矿理论方面积累了非常丰富的研究成果。然而,随着近年来在江西、云南和新疆等地取得的多项钨矿重大找矿突破,对原有的钨成矿带地质认识提出了挑战,急需进一步分析和总结其地质特征、成矿规律和资源潜力,为今后地质找矿工作提供理论指导。文中采用矿床模型综合地质信息预测方法,在各省区钨矿资源潜力预测成果的基础上,以MapGIS为平台,进行数据库汇总与综合分析研究。首先,基于全国1 538处钨矿产地数据的统计分析,初步总结了中国钨矿时空分布特征,以及岩浆岩、构造和地层等控矿因素。其次,根据钨矿床及预测区的空间分布和大地构造单元,划分了56个钨矿成矿区带。再次,将钨矿的预测类型划分为石英脉型、夕卡岩型、斑岩型、云英岩型、陆相火山岩型、沉积变质型、层控夕卡岩型和砂矿型,并建立了主要钨矿类型的预测模型。最后,在全国范围累计圈定的1 357个最小预测,累计预测资源量(WO3)2 973×104 t。根据钨矿区域成矿特征,将最小预测区归并为461个二级预测区,并进一步合并为118个钨矿三级预测区,其中,找矿潜力大的河南卢氏-栾川、新疆白干湖、湖南香花岭-瑶岗仙、甘肃野马滩-干巴河脑、江西坪背山-八仙脑和大湖塘等6个三级预测区可优先部署钨矿勘查工作。     

岩石疲劳损伤模型的参数估计方法研究

岩石是一种非均质的复杂地质材料,其疲劳损伤演化具有明显的3阶段发展规律。倒S型非线性疲劳累积损伤模型可以很好地描述这一规律。应用倒S型模型开展损伤计算和疲劳寿命分析的先决条件是确定出不同应力水平下的模型参数,而运用Levenberg-Marquardt法进行倒S型曲线拟合的结果表明,不用任何优化方法而随意选取参数初始值时迭代收敛到最优解的概率很低。因此,提出运用有限组合法估算初始值,即在参数可行域中均匀布点,以这些点为起始点分别实施一次Levenberg-Marquardt优化计算,取残差平方和最小的一组参数作为第2次Levenberg-Marquardt拟合计算的初始值。试验结果表明,以有限组合法估算参数初始值,Levenberg-Marquardt迭代计算总能收敛到最优解。     

地貌灾害预测预报的基本问题——以泥石流预测预报为例

从地貌灾害的定义入手，阐述了地貌灾害预测预报需要解决的四个基本问题、解决这四个问题的二种途径，以及进行预测预报的四种方法。以泥石流为例，论述了泥石流预测预报的现状及其热点、难点和可能的突破点，以及目前和今后一段时期的切人点和研究重点。综述了国内外对泥石流小尺度空间预测，规模预测，时间预测，包括重现期预测、降雨预测和危险度预测的一系列有实用价值的经验公式及其在应用中存在的问题。阐明了灾害评价和预测预报在灾害学研究中的重要地位。     

地震易损性分析方法研究综述

结构的地震易损性分析对于预测结构的抗震性能、进行结构的抗震设计、加固和维修决策具有重要的应用价值。本文将对近几十年来地震易损性评估方法领域内的重大发展做全面综述,并对易损性分析方法的类别和优缺点及其应用作了总结和讨论。     

星基增强系统L1频段信息服务性能分析

在北斗全球导航服务进程中,北斗星基增强服务的建设是我国卫星导航事业自身建设和不断完善发展的内在需求,更是我国卫星导航系统标准化建设的必然要求。本文基于星基增强信息定位原理,研究并实现星基增强系统的标准定位算法,采用IGS站点数据及增强信息电文,对WAAS与EGNOS系统服务性能进行分析评估,在“陆态网络”数据处理中,加入SBAS信息也可对相关误差进行改正。结果表明,加入播发的差分改正信息定位精度相对于伪距单点定位显著提高,平面方向统计均方根残差优于1m,高程方向优于1.2m;研究发现受地面参考站分布区域以及电离层、观测星座的影响,WAAS和EGNOS在定位服务性能覆盖范围内均表现出一定的区域性。从总体分析来看,不同系统空间段GEO卫星播发SBAS消息特性不一,均满足单频定位需求,EGNOS稳定性低于WAAS系统,播发消息时有中断现象,在实时单频定位性能方面,WAAS的服务性能较EGNOS得到更优的解算结果。     

关注地质分析文献，了解分析技术发展——地质分析综合性评述论文评介

现代地学已进入地球系统科学研究时代,它涉及到天、地、生的广阔研究领域,是一个综合性很强的学科[1]。地学理论的发展将越来越多地需要用高新技术所获取的高质量、海量观测和分析数据。海量地球化学数据就是其最重要的基础数据之一。地质体归根到底是由化学元素构成的,而且几乎包含了天然存在的所有元素。化学元素的组成、配比、迁移和演化都与一定的地质过程相关联。而要获取这些基础数据和信息,就需要现代地质分析技术的支持。因此当今越来越多的地学家关注着地质分析技术的发展。另一方面,现代地质分析技术已远不是过去的以化学法为主的…     

Further developments of a fuzzy set map comparison approach

Fuzzy set map comparison offers a novel approach to map comparison.The approach is specifically aimed at categorical raster maps and applies fuzzy set techniques, accounting for fuzziness of location and fuzziness of category, to create a similarity map as well as an overall similarity statistic: the Fuzzy Kappa. To date, the calculation of the Fuzzy Kappa (or K-fuzzy) has not been formally derived, and the documented procedure was only valid for cases without fuzziness of category. Furthermore, it required an infinitely large, edgeless map. This paper presents the full derivation of the Fuzzy Kappa; the method is now valid for comparisons considering fuzziness of both location and category and does not require further assumptions. This theoretical completion opens opportunities for use of the technique that surpass the original intentions. In particular, the categorical similarity matrix can be applied to highlight or disregard differences pertaining to selected categories or groups of categories and to distinguish between differences due to omission and commission.     

G318川藏公路段泥石流危险性评价

以野外调查为基础,选取坡度、地表起伏度、岩石抗剪强度指标(内摩擦角与粘聚力)、距断裂距离、地震烈度、岩体风化程度、最大24 h降雨量、年平均气温、土地利用类型等10项指标作为基本判别因子,分析泥石流对影响因子的敏感程度.研究表明,G318川藏公路最有利于泥石流发育的条件为:1.坡度:20°～35°;2.地表起伏度:100 ～300 m;3.岩石抗剪强度指标:内摩擦角＜35°,粘聚力＜25 MPa;4.岩体风化程度:＞0.4;5.距断层距离:0～10km;6.地震烈度:大于Ⅶ度;7.土地利用:荒漠草原、冰川、裸岩砾石、坡草地;8.年平均气温:＜8°与10°～12°;9.最大24 h降雨量:＞40 mm.结合GIS与信息量模型分析G318川藏公路段沿线泥石流危险性,研究结果表明:公路大部分路段处于中度、高度与极高度危险区,三者面积之和占总面积的71.99％,范围较大,主要分布在大渡河、金沙江、澜沧江、怒江、帕隆藏布江等大江大河的深切峡谷区;基本无危险区范围较小,主要位于成都平原和高原面路段,仅占总面积的4.21％.研究成果与实际灾情吻合,可为川藏公路泥石流风险评估及新路选线提供科学依据.     

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.     

平原地下水水质评价方法探讨

本文从平原地下水水质评价标准的确定、评价指标的选择、单项和综合评价方法等方面建立了平原地下水水质评价的完整体系,它既考虑了地下水水体污染的随机性和模糊性,又能保证平原地下水水质评价结果的区域可比性,同时简便明了,适用于平原地下水资源评价面广点多的特点。