江苏近10 a高架雷暴特征分析

对2007—2016年发生在江苏地区的冬半年雷暴进行特征分析,筛选出12次典型的高架雷暴天气过程,揭示江苏发生高架雷暴的时空分布特征和典型的环流形势,发现逆温层顶之上的不稳定浅层和上下层强垂直风切变分别为高架雷暴的发生提供弱热力不稳定和强动力不稳定条件。强垂直风切变、850 hPa附近强烈的锋生导致的锋面次级环流,高空槽前正涡度平流随高度增加以及高层辐散、低层辐合造成的抽吸作用,为高架雷暴的发生和维持提供逆温层之上的动力抬升条件。高架雷暴发生时高仰角反射率因子呈现出类似零度层亮带的环形特征,对流单体不断生成在圆环附近。初步归纳了江苏高架雷暴的预报着眼点:500 hPa先后高空槽东移,700 hPa有16 m·s~(-1)以上的西南急流,850 hPa切变线东伸,存在逆温层顶高于1. 5 km,逆温强度大于5℃的较强逆温,0～6 km垂直风切变超过18 m·s~(-1),700 hPa与500 hPa温度差在15℃以上以及700hPa的相对湿度高于80%,且比湿在5～6 g·kg~(-1)。     

改进的最优窗宽理论对年径流量的插值预测研究——以黄河利津等站为例

针对小样本数据造成年径流量预测效果不理想的情况,以及非对称和非正态资料的处理问题,引入信息扩散和模糊映射思想,同时运用遗传算法改进最优窗宽理论,建立了新的扩散插值模型。该模型通过对零散数据点的信息进行模糊扩散,进而实现对有限数据点信息向其邻近区域点的概率插值。选取黄河利津站为例,根据其近70 a(1942—2011年)径流量实测数据,进行了缺损数据的插值和预测试验,同时与正态扩散插值模型进行对比分析,结果表明:1)预测值能较好地模拟实际径流序列的波形变化,对丰水年(如2007年)和枯水年(如2009年)的预报都比较准确;2)中长期预报(10a)平均相对误差仅为11.59%,相较传统方法有较大的改进;3)以黄河流域2个站点(花园口和兰州)和长江流域的3个站点(朱沱、宜昌和大通)年径流量预测试验以及海温资料的插值试验作为补充,验证了该算法的有效性和普适性。该模型可为实际水文数据资料的客观分析和中长期预报提供参考。     

近景摄影测量中大角度问题的探讨

应用摄影测量中的解析算法,研究倾斜摄影和交向摄影中大角度摄影情况下的解算方法对经典解析算法的影响,推导大角度摄影情况下从相对定向至绝对定向这一解析过程的算法,通过算例证明在大倾角摄影条件下利用该算法能够准确计算出地面点坐标以及反算出像片的外方位元素,从而验证本算法在大倾角近景摄影测量中的适用性。     

Variational method for objective analysis of scalar variable and its derivative

In this study real time data have been used to compare the standard and triangle method by performing the objective analysis of mean sea level pressure. In the standard method, derivative fields are obtained from the grid point data using finite difference scheme whereas in the triangle method, a set of non-overlapping triangles are formed from the observations and the scalar and the spatial derivatives are computed directly at the centroid of each of the non-overlapping triangles. These scalars and their derivatives are then mapped to uniform grids by using the standard method. It has been found that objectively analysed scalar field obtained using standard method is superior to the scalar field derived by the triangle method, whereas the derivative fields produced by triangle method are superior to the derivative fields produced using standard method. A variational objective analysis scheme has been developed and an experiment has been carried out with depression case of June (11–15) 2004. It is found that the new scheme (variational) is able to extract the better parts of both triangle and standard methods. The results of this study will be useful in carrying out diagnostic calculations that involve derivative estimates.     

Induced seismicity in the Castanhão reservoir, NE Brazil — Preliminary results

The Castanhão reservoir was built in the state of Ceará, a dry region in Northeastern Brazil, to regulate the flow of the Jaguaribe River, for irrigation, and for power generation. It is an earth-filled dam, 60 m high, with a water capacity of 4.5 × 10⁹ m³. The seismicity in the area has been monitored since 1998, with a few interruptions, using one analog or one digital station and, during a few periods, a three-station network. The first earthquakes likely to be induced events were detected in 2003, when the water level was about 20 m high. In early 2004 a very heavy rainfall season quickly filled the reservoir. Shortly after, an increase in the seismic activity occurred and many micro-earthquakes were recorded. We suggest that this activity resulted from an increase in pore pressure due to undrained response. Therefore, we may classify this cluster of micro-earthquakes as “initial seismicity.” We deployed a network with four analog stations in the area, following this activity, to determine the epicentral zone. At least three epicentral areas under the reservoir were detected. The spatio-temporal analysis of the available data revealed that the seismicity occurs in clusters and that these were activated at different periods. We identified four sets of faults (N–S-, E–W-, NW–SE-, and NE–SW-oriented), some of which moved in shallow crustal levels and as recently as the Quaternary (1.8 Ma). Under the present-day stress regime, the last two sets moved as strike-slip structures. We suggest a possible correlation between dormant faults and the observed induced seismicity.     

岩体冻融过程中水热耦合非线性分析

针对工程地质和岩土工程中所涉及到的冻害问题,在质能平衡的基础上,充分考虑冻结岩体的热传导、水和岩体存在的热交换以及水热梯度共同作用下水分的迁移与转化,建立了水热耦合的非线性控制方程;对寒区大阪山隧道围岩的温度场和水分场进行数值模拟,并分析其水热耦合迁移规律.模拟结果表明:隧道围岩水分受冻结抽吸力和温度梯度的作用发生迁移,在隧道边墙处渗流速度最大;在考虑水分场时,隧道围岩的冻结圈将变薄,而且随着水分场中渗流系数的增大将更加变薄,水分场在很大程度上影响温度场的分布;为了减少冻害对寒区工程的破坏,应采取良好的保温措施.模拟结果与现有研究成果和工程经验类似.     

三维GIS平台复杂工况下的电气校验

针对传统输电线路设计过程中校验过程困难、精度低的问题,基于三维GIS平台设计了三维电气校验模块,利用悬链线理论、空间坐标转换、状态方程等计算方法实现了不同的工况条件下对"导线对地距离""导地线间距离""导线对地物距离""极限档距"及"安全间隙"的校验,校验算法的准确性通过了设计院的校核。通过多个工程的试用表明,该方法不仅提高设计人员的工作效率,而且可以提高电气校验的精度,研究结果对输电线路数字化设计过程中电气校验具有一定的参考价值。     

基于航天远景一键快拼软件处理5D MarkⅢ无人机数据的研究

介绍了利用无人机搭载佳能EOS 5D MarkⅢ影像数据在航天远景一键快拼软件下快速拼接生成DOM的方法,总结了该方法的优势和在快拼过程中需要注意的问题,可为今后的数据生产提供参考。     

多源遥感数据快速自动处理技术探讨

甘肃省地图院利用国内外先进的现代测绘技术,构建了集地理信息采集、处理、贮存、管理于一体的信息化测绘生产体系,完成了信息化测绘生产基地的构建[1]。多源遥感数据快速自动处理技术应用研究是信息化测绘生产技术应用研究的一方面,主要是利用以信息化测绘生产基地为依托的遥感影像集群数据处理系统完成。本文主要探讨如何快速自动处理多源遥感数据,并以ADS80数据为例,对集群系统构建前后的效率进行对比实验。