On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

Focal mechanism dependence of static stress triggering of earthquakes

We perform a global statistical investigation into the problem of Coulomb stress triggering of earthquakes by using the Harvard CMT catalogue of shallow earthquakes from 1976 to 2001. We consider ‘earthquake pairs’, i.e., pairs of successive earthquakes occurring near each other with similar focal mechanisms, and address the problem of whether or not the change of the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) produced by the first earthquake of the pair ‘encourages’ the occurrence of the second one. An interesting feature is that such a Coulomb stress-triggering phenomenon has an apparent focal mechanism dependence: for thrust earthquakes, a more evident triggering effect can be observed.     

基于物方影像匹配和概率松弛的断面自动提取

提出了基于物方影像匹配的断面提取,为了提高匹配的可靠性,引入了概率松弛法,最终获得了高精度的断面.     

2003年9月19日陕西暴雨分析

利用太原地区发生的798个地质灾害个例和汛期降水资料,从地质环境背景着手,在地理信息系统(MAPGIS)支持下,对太原地质灾害危险性区划和诱发因素进行了系统研究。提出了精细的地质环境概率量化评价方法,得出了地质灾害影响因素的重要结论。建立了地质灾害预报模型,制定了预报等级标准和预报规则。经业务试验,预报结果与实况基本吻合。     

Estimating severity of liquefaction-induced damage near foundation

An empirical procedure for estimating the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations of existing buildings is established. The procedure is based on an examination of 30 case histories from recent earthquakes. The data for these case histories consist of observations of the damage that resulted from liquefaction, and the subsurface soil conditions as revealed by cone penetration tests. These field observations are used to classify these cases into one of three damaging effect categories, ‘no damage’, ‘minor to moderate damage’, and ‘major damage’. The potential for liquefaction-induced ground failure at each site is calculated and expressed as the probability of ground failure. The relationship between the probability of ground failure and the damage class is established, which allows for the evaluation of the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations. The procedure presented herein represents a significant attempt to address the issue of liquefaction effect. Caution must be exercised, however, when using the proposed model and procedure for estimating liquefaction damage severity, because they are developed based on limited number of case histories.     

Dynamic theory of rigid-plasticity

This paper deals with an analysis method for the response and motion of soil-like rigid-plastic bodies under seismic loading conditions. A continuity condition to determine the acceleration distribution within the rigid-plastic body when the failure occurs during seismic motions is proposed. Combining this continuity condition of acceleration and the ‘Generalized Limit Equilibrium Method (GLEM)’, the responses of the earth structure during seismic motions as well as the permanent displacements can be obtained, where GLEM is one of the limit equilibrium methods proposed by the authors for static problems and providing the approximate solution for Kötter's equation. The theoretical formulation of the method, the illustrative examples, and some comparisons between the analytical and experimental results are demonstrated.     

Preferential embrittlement of graphitic schists during extensional unroofing in the Alps: the effect of fluid composition on rheology in low-permeability rocks

Interlayered graphitic and non‐graphitic schists from the Tauern Window, Eastern Alps, record contrasting mechanical behaviour during extensional exhumation. Graphitic schists contain mesoscale extension fractures, pervasive microcracks in garnet, and abundant secondary fluid inclusion planes; all three types of structures are oriented perpendicular to the stretching lineation. Crack spacings in garnet from graphitic samples are tightly clustered around a mean of 180 μm. Non‐graphitic schists have fewer and more randomly oriented microcracks and fluid inclusion planes and maintained strain compatibility via crystal plasticity. The presence or absence of graphite appears to have exerted a fundamental control on rheology during unroofing. Calculations for a model graphitic rock at 500 °C and f_O2 = 10^?24 MPa show that the equilibrium metamorphic fluid evolves from X_CO2 = 0.07 to 0.38 during decompression from 700 to 400 MPa, in agreement with microcrack fluid inclusion data that show a change from X_CO2 < 0.1 to 0.45 in graphitic samples over the same pressure interval. This compositional shift results in >60% expansion of the pore fluid during decompression. H₂O‐rich fluid in non‐graphitic rocks expands <15% over the same pressure interval. The greater pore fluid expansion in low‐permeability graphitic horizons likely promoted tensile failure during unroofing. These results suggest that microcracking should be an inevitable consequence of decompression in many graphitic schists, whereas rocks that lack graphite are less likely to undergo microcracking. Microseismicity is predicted to be more common in graphitic than non‐graphitic rocks during unroofing of mountain belts.     

On Tension Failure of 2-D Rock Specimens and Associated Acoustic Emission

Summary To understand the failure mechanism of quasi-brittle materials like rock under tensile stress, observations on the failure process of granite and marble plate specimens under tension are summarized and presented. Micro- and macro-failure properties of rock plates under uniaxial tension have been characterized by using an acoustic emission technique. Acoustic emission signals associated with micro-fractures are captured to locate the sources. An algorithm based on arrival time difference is developed for this purpose. The results reveal clearly the failure processes of rock which include initiation, nucleation and propagation of micro-fractures when the axial stress is close to the peak strength of rock. It is believed that the difference in heterogeneity between granite and marble specimens leads to different fracture shapes and different behaviors of associated acoustic emissions. Numerical simulation of acoustic emissions for two-dimensional tensile test is also carried out. The simulated characteristics are in good agreement with the experimental results.     

The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity

Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m³ of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area.     

Understanding governance and networks: EU-US interactions and the regulation of genetically modified organisms

EU-US (European Union-United States) interactions in relation to the regulation of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been examined in detail in recent years. To do this scholars have tended to focus on a small number of high profile processes, such as the formal complaint of the US to the World Trade Organisation regarding the regulation of GMOs in the Europe. It is important to analyse developments of this kind but overemphasis on them has also lead to a distorted view of the case and a failure to appreciate the significance of other, less visible, types of interaction. In this paper we focus instead on trying to understand the roles played by various EU-US transnational networks—The Transatlantic Business Dialogue, The Transatlantic Economic Partnership, The Transatlantic Consumer Dialogue, The Transatlantic Environmental Dialogue and the EU-US Consultative Forum on Biotechnology. These networks have been trying to shape the regulation of GMOs in both jurisdictions since the mid 1990s. By analysing them through a ‘governance lens’ we find that we can better understand EU-US interactions and the dynamics and influences around the regulation of GMOs. This gives us valuable insights into processes of contemporary governance.