换道概率对交通系统动能的影响

基于跟车模型的特点,提出了跟车模型的动能变化公式,利用该公式研究换道概率对各车辆动能的影响.数值实验结果表明,换道概率和相对速度对各车辆动能产生较大影响,但换道概率和相对速度会分别降低其动能变化频率和幅度.此外,系统增加的平均动能会随着系统最大换道概率的增加而降低.     

Probability of Sediment Incipient Motion Under Complex Flows

Presented in this paper is a mathematical model to calculate the probability of the sediment incipient motion,in which the effects of the fluctuating pressure and the seepage are considered.The instantaneous bed shear velocity and the pressure gradient on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow are obtained according to the PIV measurements.It is found that the instantaneous pressure gradient on the bed obeys normal distribution.The probability of the sediment incipient motion on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow is given by the mathematical model.The predicted results agree well with the experiment in the region downstream of the reattachment point while a large discrepancy between the theory and experiment is seen in the region near the reattachment point.The possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant

With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).     

Seismically induced slope instabilities and the corresponding treatments: the case of a road in the Wenchuan earthquake hit region

On May 12, 2008, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake hit Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province resulted in great loss of life and properties. Besides, abundant landslides and slope failures were triggered in the most seriously hit areas and caused disastrous damages to infrastructures and public facilities. Moreover, abundant unstable slopes caused by the quake have the potential to cause damages for a considerable long period of time. The variety of these slopes and the corresponding treatments are connected with the topographical and geological conditions of the sites. It is decided to document and identify some of these major slope instabilities caused by the earthquake and their treatments. The paper shows the condition of a road in Dujiangyan through in situ explorations. The case history showed significant implications to the reconstruction of the quake-hit regions and future disaster prevention and management works.     

白浪覆盖率模式中参量的研究

在波面位移为正态过程的假定下,推导出一种以平均周期和风速为参量的白浪覆盖率公式W=1-Φ[5.11094[-T/U10]0.7576].依据摩擦风速和U10的表达式,进一步推导出白浪覆盖率依赖于摩擦风速的形式W=1-Φ[0.5227[-T/U]0.7576]].考虑到在实际应用中,经常需要用波龄描述波浪的状态,将白浪覆盖率表示成一种形式简单的波龄的函数W=1-Φ(3.6496ξ0.7576),与Monahan等的海上测量数据符合良好.     

罗源湾船舶溢油风险评价分析

基于罗源湾远期油轮的发展预测,运用概率与数理统计方法计算出罗源湾海域未来 S 年中发生船舶溢油事故的概率基础值为 0.361×10-4/S,进而对罗源湾船舶溢油风险进行预测评价,结果显示:罗源湾海域船舶溢油概率约为每 10 a 一次,每次产生的溢油量约为 57.3 t 原油,经过一个潮周期,油膜面积理论估算值为 0.64 km2.针对罗源湾海域的实际情况,还提出了相应的风险防范措施.     

动态矿区DEM生成方法及其在土地复垦中的应用研究

首先根据我国矿区土地复垦工作中存在的不足,通过研究提出"动态土地复垦"的概念,并确定了动态土地复垦方案制定的数据基础——动态矿区数字高程模型。动态矿区数字高程模型应该包含煤矿生产对地表的累积影响结果数据和地表的原始地形信息,开采沉陷预计结果可以提供前者,地面测量可以提供后者,经过数据处理可以按时间间隔生成描述塌陷区的一系列数字高程模型(DEM)(准动态),然后运用DEM的空间分析技术提取塌陷区在不同时间段的土地破坏类型、范围和位置数据,并根据这些数据进行动态土地复垦方案决策数据的提取,经实例验证该方法可行。     

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统是在日本数值预报的基础上应用多种统计方法建立MOS预报方程,对其预报结果应用概率回归集成制作降水概率预报。TS评分结果表明:MOS预报的降水确率高于日本数值预报,MOS集成预报的结果在各种MOS预报结果平均偏上的水平。概率预报的Brier评分结果表明:在MOS综合基础上的概率回归(REEP)方法得出的概率预报结果较为理想。