我国南海沿海台风及暴潮灾害趋势分析

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(CMA)和国家海洋局(SOA)数据资料, 对南海沿海台风活动(1949—2016)和风暴潮灾害趋势(1989—2016)进行了统计分析。结果表明, 南海地区台风年登陆频数整体上呈微弱减少趋势, 但强台风影响及强度呈加强趋势; 1990年代中期台风登陆频数出现显著突变, 粤东地区受高强度台风的影响变得频繁, 粤西地区从2007年开始台风登陆强度逐年增强; 研究区域内台风强度分布一致性较好。文章还总结了典型的热带气旋路径, 分析了不同入射角范围的台风在强度和地区分布上占比的变化规律, 指出近年来中国南海沿海地区年强台风暴潮灾害发生频数增多, 年最大风暴潮等级有增大趋势。     

Experimental study on inner slope failure mechanism of seawall by coupling effect of storm surge and wave

In the context of global climate change,the impact of group-occurring ocean dynamic disasters on China's offshore areas is becoming more and more intense.The study of the effect of existing ocean dynamic disasters on offshore hazard-bearing bodies mostly focuses on the effect of single disaster-causing factors,and it is still insufficient to study storm surge and dynamic wave coupling&reinforcement effects as well as the process of the dynamic response of such hazard-bearing bodies as seawalls.This study firstly realized the synchronous process of water level and wave through continuous tide generation and wave generation by the wave maker and tide generating device,so as to realize the dynamic coupling simulation of storm surge and wave in the laboratory.Then the physical model test of the typical seawall section was carried out under the dynamic coupling of storm surge and wave as well as at a conventional fixed water level respectively.In the process of test wave overtopping discharge and the damage process of the levee crown and backwall of seawalls were observed and compared,and their damage mechanism was also studied.     

Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China

In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.     

变形监测数据预报的动态贝叶斯ELM方法

贝叶斯极限学习机(BELM)具有充分利用数据先验信息,可以自适应估计模型参数的特点。但在样本数量不断增加时,如果每次都对BELM重新训练将会降低计算效率。针对此问题,本文提出一种动态贝叶斯极限学习机(DBELM)方法以应用于变形监测数据实时预报。该方法以BELM训练的模型参数为初值,根据新增样本信息可对初始模型参数进行动态更新,并从理论上推导了相关计算公式。通过对仿真数据和实际变形数据进行详细分析表明:DBELM方法的预报精度要优于BELM、正则化极限学习机(RELM)、极限学习机(ELM)3种方法。特别是在长期持续预报过程中,其预报性能相对于其余3种方法优势明显。这充分表明了所提方法应用于变形监测数据预报领域具有可行性和有效性。     

珠江口附近海域波浪极值推算

本文以WRF模式输出结果作为风场驱动条件,采用SWAN和WAVEWATCH III相嵌套的方法,对珠江口附近海域进行共20年(1991-2010年)的波浪场数值计算。根据计算结果,分析了该海域极值波浪特征,并使用Gumbel极值函数计算50年一遇和100年一遇波浪极值,结果显示:(1)1991-2010年间,珠江口区域最大有效波高为2.0m,万山群岛南侧可达5.0m,而外海最大有效波高可达10m以上,极值平均周期均在10s左右;(2)50年一遇和100年一遇波高在珠江口区域较小,而外海则相对较大,最大在14m以上;(3)50年一遇和100年一遇平均周期相差不大,不同海域之间相差也较小,大部分海域在10s左右,外海相对较大,可达12-14s之间。     

Storm surge simulation along the Meghna estuarine area: an alternative approach

In this study, numerical prediction of surges associated with a storm was made through the method of lines (MOL) in coordination with the newly proposed RKARMS (4, 4) method for the meghna estuarine region, along the coast of Bangladesh. For this purpose, the vertically integrated shallow water equations (SWEs) in Cartesian coordinates were firstly transformed into ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of initial valued, which were then soloved using the new RKARMS (4, 4) method. Nested grid technique was employed for resolving the complexities of the region of interest with minimum cost. Fresh water discharge through the lower Meghna River was taken into account along the north east corner of the innermost child scheme. Numerical experiments were performed with the severe cyclone on April 1991 that crossed the coast over the study area. Simulated results by the study were found to be in good agreement with some reported data and were found to compare well with the results obtained by the MOL in addition with the classical 4th order Runge-Kutta (RK (4, 4)) method and the standard finite difference method (FDM).     

The 15 September 1991 pyroclastic flows at Unzen Volcano (Japan): a flow model for associated ash-cloud surges

Large-scale collapse of a dacite dome in the late afternoon of 15 September 1991 generated a series of pyroclastic-flow events at Unzen Volcano. Pyroclastic flows with a volume of 1×10⁶ m³ (as DRE) descended the northeastern slope of the volcano, changing their courses to the southeast due to topographic control. After they exited a narrow gorge, an ash-cloud surge rushed straight ahead, detaching the main body of the flow that turned and followed the topographic lows to the east. The surge swept the Kita-Kamikoba area, which had been devastated by the previous pyroclastic-flow events, and transported a car as far as 120 m. Following detachment, the surge lost its force after it moved several hundred meters, but maintained a high temperature. The deposits consist of a bottom layer of better-sorted ash (unit 1), a thick layer of block and ash (unit 2), and a thin top layer of fall-out ash (unit 3). Unit 2 overlies unit 1 with an erosional contact. The upper part of unit 2 grades into better-sorted ash. At distal block-and-ash flow deposits, the bottom part of unit 2 also consists of better-sorted ash, and the contact with the unit 1 deposits becomes ambiguous. Video footage of cascading pyroclastic flows during the 1991–1995 eruption, traveling over surfaces without any topographic barriers, revealed that lobes of ash cloud protruded intermittently from the moving head and sides, and that these lobes surged ahead on the ground surface. This fact, together with the inspection by helicopter shortly after the events, suggests that the protruded lobes consisted of better-sorted ash, and resulted in the deposits of unit 1. The highest ash-cloud plume at the Oshigadani valley exit, and the thickest deposition of fall-out ash over Kita-Kamikoba and Ohnokoba, indicate that abundant ash was also produced when the flow passed through a narrow gorge. In the model presented here, the ash clouds from the pyroclastic flows were composed of a basal turbulent current of high concentration (main body), an overriding and intermediate fluidization zone, and an overlying dilute cloud. Release of pressurized gas in lava block pores, due to collisions among blocks and the resulting upward current, caused a zone of fluidization just above the main body. The mixture of gas and ash sorted in the fluidization zone moved ahead and to the side of the main body as a gravitational current, where the ash was deposited as surge deposits. The main body, which had high internal friction and shear near its base, then overran the surge deposits, partially eroding them. When the upward current of gas (fluidization) waned, better-sorted ash suspended in the fluidization zone was deposited on block-and-ash deposits. In the distal places of block-and-ash deposits, unit 2 probably was deposited in non-turbulent fashion without any erosion of the underlying layer (unit 1).     

华北盆地南部早二叠世早期聚煤作用的成因机制

华北盆地南部早二叠世早期形成的海陆交替相含煤地层,含有多达30余层煤。这些为数众多的煤层在其形成过程中,受到海水进退和风暴潮2种动力作用的控制。频繁的海水进退,虽然多次为本区的聚煤场所提供了广阔的空间,但未能给滨海沼泽内泥炭物质的持续堆积带来足够的时间。频繁的风暴潮作用对策煤场所既有破坏性又有建设性：风暴上升流可以强烈地侵蚀滨海沼泽的泥炭层,风暴下降流又可将大量的泥炭物质携带到浅海环境再沉积;风暴上升流可以在平缓开阔的潮汐地带上建造成平行海岸线的沙脊,使沙脊靠陆一侧成为新的聚煤场所,下一次较大的风暴上升流又可荡平这些新建立起来的聚煤场所。因此本区的聚煤作用既复杂又特殊。     

A convection-conduction model for analysis of the freeze-thaw conditions in the surrounding rock wall of a tunnel in permafrost regions

The results of simulated tidal current field, wave field and storm-induced current field are employed to interpret the depositional dynamic mechanism of formation and evolution of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea door. The anticlockwise rotary tidal wave to the south of Shandong Peninsula meets the following progressive tidal wave from the South Yellow Sea, forming a radial current field outside Jianggang. This current field provides a necessary dynamic condition for the formation and existence of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea seafloor. The results of simulated “old current field (holocene)” show that there existed a convergent-divergent tidal zone just outside the palaeo-Yangtze River estuary where a palaeo-underwater accumulation was developed. The calculated results from wave models indicate that the wave impact on the topography, under the condition of high water level and strong winds, is significant. The storm current induced by typhoons landing in the Yangtze River estuary and turning away to the sea can have an obvious influence, too, on the sand ridges. The depmitional dynamic mechanism of formation and evolution of the radial sand ridges on the Yellow Sea seafloor is “tidal current-induced formation—storm-induced chang—tidal current-induced recovery”. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49236120).     

波流耦合作用下渤海及北黄海风暴潮增水及海浪过程的数值模拟

本文基于三维波流耦合FVCOM-SWAVE数值模式,采用Jelesnianski参数化风场与再分析数据集ECMWF风场数据叠加而成的合成风场作为外力驱动力,模拟了1818号"温比亚"台风引起北黄海及渤海海域风暴潮增减水及波浪的生长与消减过程,进而分析该海域在"温比亚"台风作用下波浪对流速垂向分布的影响。研究结果表明:合成风场得到的风速最大值及出现时刻与实测数据符合较好,合成风场较为合理,能够为模拟波流耦合机制下海域水动力变化提供准确的风场条件;几个测站的风暴潮增水模拟结果与实测数据较为吻合,FVCOM-SWAVE耦合系统合理地再现了"温比亚"台风在黄渤海引发的风暴潮增水以及台风浪过程。此外,计算结果显示"温比亚"期间黄渤海海域最大有效波高分布于台风中心外围,且位于台风前进方向上,波浪最大有效波高值与台风强度有关;在台风过境期间,波流相互作用对近岸海域流速的垂向分布具有一定影响,考虑波流相互作用可有效提高台风风暴潮数值模拟精度。研究结果对台风灾害预报、防灾减灾及港口建筑选址具有一定的参考意义。