基于可拓理论的泥石流灾害预警预报系统开发:以北京市为例

泥石流是北京山区主要的地质灾害,北京市于2003年启动了地质灾害气象预警预报工作,但近几年的预报效果并不理想。为进一步提高泥石流灾害预警预报的准确性,选取地形、地层岩性、地质构造和植被作为基础因子,以北京市地质灾害易发分区为响应因子,以降雨作为诱发因子,根据各因子与泥石流灾害的相关性分析,采用层次分析法(AHP)计算各因子的权重系数,提出了基于可拓理论的泥石流预警预报模型,并通过G IS系统和IDL开发平台实现准确预报。利用20组历史上北京地区发生的泥石流雨量资料对建立的预警预报模型进行验证,结果表明模型预报结果与实际情况基本吻合。研究成果对于提高北京市泥石流灾害预警预报水平,减少人民生命和财产损失具有重要的意义。     

基于可拓理论的城市用地适用性评估

依据可拓理论中的物元理论及关联函数,建立城市用地适用性评估的关联度及物元模型,采用可拓物元模型对5个评估单元的用地适用性进行评估,并与模糊综合评判法进行比较分析.研究表明:可拓评估通过可拓关联度判断城市用地适用性属于某集合的程度,而且关联函数能够根据数据特征挖掘数据信息,避免了权重确定的主观性;可拓评估结果不但与模糊综合评判法完全一致,而且更为精细.     

A high-resolution aftershock seismicity image of the 2002 Sultandaği-Çay earthquake (Mw = 6.2), Turkey

A moderate-size earthquake (Mw = 6.2) occurred on 3 February 2002 (07:11:28 GMT) in the Sultanda??-Çay region of southwest Turkey. The mainshock was followed by a strong aftershock of Mw = 6.0 just 2 h after the mainshock, at 09:26:49 GMT. A temporary seismic network of 27 vertical component seismometers was installed to monitor aftershock activity. One thousand sixty nine aftershocks (0.2 < ML < 3.3) were recorded during the period from 5 to 10 February 2002. We analyzed the P and S arrival times and P wave first motion data to obtain high-quality hypocenters and focal mechanisms, which revealed fine details of the fault zone. We infer that the mainshock has ruptured a segment of the Sultanda? Fault Zone that is approximately 37 km long and 7 km wide at depth. The average slip over the rupture plane during the mainshock is estimated to be 32 cm. The linear distribution of the aftershocks and the location of the mainshock epicenter suggest that rupture has initiated in the eastern bending of the fault and propagated unilaterally to the west. The majority of fault plane solutions indicate E–W to ESE–WNW striking oblique–normal faulting mechanisms with an average dip angle of 62° N ± 10° . The high-resolution aftershock seismicity image also shows that faulting involved a complex array of synthetic and possibly antithetic structures during the evolution of the aftershock sequence. The steady increase of the b value towards the west implies that the highest moment release of the mainshock occurred to the west of the epicenter. The study clearly shows the activation of the WNW–ESE-trending Sultanda? Fault Zone along the southern margin of the Ak?ehir-Afyon Graben (AAG). The westernmost end of the aftershock activity corresponds to a structurally complex zone distinct from the main rupture. It is characterized by both ENE–WSW- and NNE–SSW-trending oblique-slip normal faulting mechanisms, the latter being associated with the NNE–SSW-trending Karam?k Graben. The intersection of these two grabens, AAG and Karam?k Graben, provides abundant faults available for failure in this region. The occurrence pattern of large events in recent years indicates a possible migration of earthquakes from east to west. Thus, we conclude that this has an important implication for earthquake hazard for the city of Afyon, which lies along the same fault line and only 20 km west of the termination point of the aftershock zone.     

Early-stage rifting of the Southern Tyrrhenian region: The Calabria–Sardinia breakup

The Southern Tyrrhenian Sea is an extensional basins linked to the Neogene evolution of the Calabria subduction zone located in the western Mediterranean realm where controversial kinematic and geodynamical models have been proposed. Our study provides a key to unravel timing and mode of extension of the upper plate and the breakup of Calabria from Sardinia. By combining original stratigraphic analysis of wells and seismic profiles off Calabria with a stratigraphic correlation to onshore outcrops, we re-assess the tectonic evolution that controlled the sedimentation and basement deformation of the Southern Tyrrhenian basin during Serravallian–Tortonian times. We document the tectono-stratigraphic evolution of adjacent extensional basins characterized by 3rd order depositional sequences (Ser1, Tor1 and Tor2) and different modes of extension, subsidence and opposite dipping faults. Episodic basin development is recorded by a coarsening-up and fining-up trend of the sedimentary succession and by tectonically enhanced unconformities that reflect three episodes of fault activity. We reconstruct Serravallian–Tortonian paleogeographic maps and propose a block faulting model for the evolution of the Sardinia–Calabria area. Sardinia was disconnected from Calabria through N–S normal faults forming Tyrrhenian extensional basins that formed contemporaneously to the E–W opening of the Algerian basin. Unlike published Serravallian–Tortonian reconstructions of the western Mediterranean realm, our results support a geodynamic model characterized by rapid trench retreat, trench-normal extension in the entire overriding plate and very weak coupling between plates.     

桂中都安钾镁煌斑岩金云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar年龄及其构造意义

右江褶皱带地处扬子陆块和华夏陆块的结合部位,区内广泛发育以基性-超基性岩墙群和超酸性岩脉为主的燕山晚期双峰式岩浆活动。对桂中都安地区的金云钾镁煌斑岩脉进行了金云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar法测年,斑晶和基质金云母样品均给出了较一致的坪年龄,分别为93.6±0.6Ma和92.9±0.6Ma,相应的等时线年龄分别为93.4±0.9Ma和92.7±0.8Ma,上述年龄代表了岩脉的侵位年龄。结合区内报道的同期年代学资料,进一步证明右江褶皱带及其周缘晚白垩世双峰式岩浆活动响应了华南地区燕山晚期的构造转换事件及随后大规模的岩石圈伸展减薄。     

基于缩放因子的参数曲线自由变形

构造出一种用于参数曲线自由变形的分段多项式函数,称之为缩放因子,将该因子作用于待变形曲线,从而使曲线发生形变。通过交互改变控制参数,可这到预期的变形效果。实验表明,这种方法数学背景简单,易于控制,操作方便,重复使用可获得丰富的变形效果,适用于几何造型、计算机动画等领域。     

青藏高原中部温泉盆地西缘的晚新生代正断层作用

在青藏高原中部的温泉盆地西侧发育了1条倾向东的强烈活动的近SN正断层——温泉盆地西缘断裂。它是在印度板块与欧亚板块强烈碰撞的背景下,青藏高原中北部地区自晚新生代以来发生近EW向伸展变形的产物。晚新生代以来,该断裂上的最大垂直错动量不会<21km,错动中生代褶皱地层所暗示的最大垂直位移量为(60±22)km。第四纪期间,该断裂发生了多期活动,形成了山前的多套断层三角面和多级断层陡坎地貌。根据断裂垂直错动晚第四纪期间不同时代的地层和地貌体所形成的断层崖高度估算,其晚第四纪以来的最大活动速率不超过12mm/a,平均活动速率为045mm/a。初步的探槽分析表明,晚更新世末期以来沿该断裂至少发生了3次震级不同的古地震事件。综合该断裂的全新世活动特点推断,它是在未来具有较大可能发生6～7级地震的一条重要控震断裂     

扬子地块东缘新元古代造山后构造转化:瓮安穹隆构造岩石与年代学限定

扬子地块Rodinian造山后向伸展作用转化的过程与时间,一直是扬子地块新元古代构造演化的重要科学问题。扬子地块东南瓮安穹隆保存了新元古界板溪群至南华系的完整地层层序与角度不整合接触关系,是回答和理解新元古代造山后构造转化问题的理想区域。对新元古代浅变质板溪群沉积岩和南华纪南沱组沉积层序进行了调查,并采取系列样品进行碎屑锆石U-Pb定年分析和岩石地球化学分析。野外调查表明,南华纪南沱组角度不整合于板溪群之上;年代学分析结果表明,板溪群的沉积时代应在772 Ma之前,而南华纪南沱组沉积时代晚于691 Ma。瓮安穹隆新元古代板溪群沉积岩SiO₂含量中等,SiO₂/Al₂O₃平均值为5.53,K₂O/Na₂O平均值为7.14,TFeO+MgO平均值为3.47%。板溪群物源可能来自上地壳,原岩以长英质物源为主,为活动大陆边缘构造背景,其物源主要来自扬子地块西缘。南沱组沉积岩样品SiO₂含量中等,SiO₂/Al₂O₃平均值为4.69,K₂O/Na₂O平均值为20.41,TFeO+MgO含量平均值为6.64%;碎屑沉积岩稀土元素球粒陨石标准化曲线与上陆壳相似,以轻稀土富集、显著的铕负异常和重稀土平坦为特征。南沱组沉积岩物源可能来自上地壳,原岩以长英质物源为主,有少量中性岩混入,具有裂谷背景特征。综上所述,认为瓮安穹隆板溪群—南沱组地层层序代表了从造山作用向造山后伸展裂谷转化过程,其中板溪群可能与碰撞造山作用对应,主体约在772 Ma结束,而造山后裂谷的形成在691 Ma之后,因此,从造山作用向造山后伸展转化的时间大约为772~691 Ma。     

Structure and geochronology of the Tongbai complex and their implications for the evolution of the Tongbai orogenic belt,central China

The Tongbai orogenic belt has an overall antiformal geometry and the hinge of the antiform is sub-horizontal and trends NW–SE. The Tongbai complex (TBC) in the core of the antiform is bounded by the S-dipping Yindian–Malong shear zone in the south, the sub-horizontal Taibaiding shear zone at the top and the N-dipping Hongyihe–Tongbai shear zone in the north. The three shear zones have dextral, top-to-NW and sinistral movement, respectively. They are parts of a single shear zone, termed the Tongbai shear zone, that has a uniform top-to-NW sense of shear. Three samples of deformed granitoid (mylonite or protomylonite) from the shear zone have U–Pb zircon ages of 145 ± 6 Ma, 142 ± 2 Ma and 131 ± 6 Ma, respectively. An L-tectonite in the TBC yielded a metamorphic age of 137 ± 8 Ma and a migmatite an age of 137 ± 1 Ma. The Tongbai shear zone is intruded by undeformed Early Cretaceous granite and dykes and deformation in the shear zone is constrained to ca. 140–135 Ma, synchronous with metamorphism and migmatization in the TBC. Early Cretaceous magma emplacement and the associated uplift modified the TBC into a gentle antiform and the uplift may have continued to ca. 102–85 Ma. Similar geometry and kinematics have been documented in the Dabie orogenic belt to the east, which suggests that the Central Orogenic Belt in China probably experienced a uniform orogen-parallel extension and top-to-NW shearing in the ductile lithosphere in the Early Cretaceous.