农业气象服务潜在经济效益的理论评估方法初探

气象科技服务的效益问题，一直是气象学界关心的问题之一。然而，天气预报与生俱来的一个特点就是其产品具有它固有的不确定性，探讨农业气象科技服务经济效益的理论方法，无论是对于提高气象科技服务的社会经济效益，还是对于提高气象部门的自身经济效益都显得十分重要。本文采用离散模式和概率统计等方法对农业气象决策服务潜在经济效益的理论评估方法进行了初步探讨，并以一些个例进行说明。     

声衍射层析成像中吸收型散射体的Rytov二阶近似重建

文中详细讨论了Rytov二阶近似下的声逆散射微扰论公式，并考察了它的适用范围. 介 绍了吸收型散射体的Rytov二阶近似重建算法，重建了散射体内部的波数和吸收系数. 这种 散射体的重建与纯位相型散射体的重建一样，不同的只是在计算正散射时考虑了吸收的影响 . 数值模拟给出了Born一阶、二阶和Rytov一阶、二阶近似重建的例子，说明Rytov二阶近似 在一定范围内比其他三种近似算法好.     

空间方向关系基础性问题研究

空间方向关系是GIS的重要理论问题，但目前关于它的研究尚处于很不系统的阶段。相关文献大部分专注于空间方向关系的形式化描述模型研究，而忽视了对概念等基础性理论的剖析，本文阐述了研究空间方向关系的意义，空间方向关系的参考框架、性质、特点及分类体系等重要问题，以促进其他相关研究工作的开展。     

The geomorphological unit hydrograph from a historical‐critical perspective

In this paper we present a brief overview of geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) theories and analyze their successful path without hiding their limitations. The history of the GIUH is subdivided into three major sections. The first is based on the milestone works of Rodríguez‐Iturbe and Valdés (Water Resources Research 1979; 15 (6): 1409–1420) and Gupta et al. (Water Resources Research 1980; 16 (5): 855–862), which recognized that a treatment of water discharges with ‘travel times’ could provide a rich interpretation of the theory of the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH). We show how this was possible, what assumptions were made, which of these assumptions can be relaxed, and which have become obsolete and been discarded. The second section focuses on the width‐function‐based IUH (WFIUH) approach and its achievements in assessing the interplay of the topology and geometry of the network with water dynamics. The limitations of the WFIUH approach are described, and a way to work around them is suggested. Finally, a new formal approach to estimating the water budget by ‘travel times’, which derives from a suitable use of the water budget equation and some hypotheses, has been introduced and disentangled. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新城金矿主成矿期构造应力场对矿体倾伏、侧伏、富矿柱的控制及成矿深度的估算

成矿构造应力场研究是控矿构造研究、认识矿体空间展布形态、位置、预测及布置探矿设计的基础。依据弹性力学和莫尔库仑剪切破裂理论,推导出形成共轭及在剪切构造带内形成羽列、雁列等构造应力场的产状和形成羽列、雁列主应力大小的数学解析表达式,进而应用计算机对新城金矿床主矿体进行了测算。结果显示：该矿主容矿构造是在NNW向缓倾拉张主应力、NE向陡倾主压应力、焦家构造带平面呈右行扭动下形成的。NWW向中间主应力控制新城Ⅰ号主矿体在NW向倾斜平面上延深的长轴方向。该轴在水平面上投影的倾伏向为281°,与水平面的夹角倾伏角为26°,在N40°E纵投影面上向SW侧伏,侧伏角为45°,富矿柱产状亦与中间主应力轴产状一致。在已获取容矿构造产状基础上,据相关岩石力学性质测试成果,分析并建立了主容矿羽列与控制剪切构造带两者的力学关系和剪切破裂方程式。联立解出成矿应力场的最大和最小主应力的量值,再由陡倾主应力大小估算出该矿头部的成矿深度在2 750 m左右。     

非线性波浪作用下埋置管道上波浪力简化计算

由于浅水区波浪的非线性影响显著,浅埋管道受非线性波浪荷载的影响大,为了保证管道长期运行的稳定性,在管道设计过程中需要充分考虑由非线性波浪引起的波浪力。考虑孔隙水和海床土的压缩性,基于Biot固结理论和一阶近似椭圆余弦波理论,利用分离变量法推导了非线性波浪作用下浅水区埋置管道周围海床的渗流压力,进而给出了埋置管道上的波浪力压力解析解,并与已有的文献结果进行比较。计算结果表明,在椭圆余弦波的作用下,海底管道周围海床内的渗流压力呈正弦分布,且管道所受的波浪力随着管径的增大而增大。     

Gravitational torque on the inner core and decadal polar motion

A decadal polar motion with an amplitude of approximately 25 milliarcsecs (mas) is observed over the last century, a motion known as the Markowitz wobble. The origin of this motion remains unknown. In this paper, we investigate the possibility that a time-dependent axial misalignment between the density structures of the inner core and mantle can explain this signal. The longitudinal displacement of the inner core density structure leads to a change in the global moment of inertia of the Earth. In addition, as a result of the density misalignment, a gravitational equatorial torque leads to a tilt of the oblate geometric figure of the inner core, causing a further change in the global moment of inertia. To conserve angular momentum, an adjustment of the rotation vector must occur, leading to a polar motion. We develop theoretical expressions for the change in the moment of inertia and the gravitational torque in terms of the angle of longitudinal misalignment and the density structure of the mantle. A model to compute the polar motion in response to time-dependent axial inner core rotations is also presented. We show that the polar motion produced by this mechanism can be polarized about a longitudinal axis and is expected to have decadal periodicities, two general characteristics of the Markowitz wobble. The amplitude of the polar motion depends primarily on the Y ¹₂ spherical harmonic component of mantle density, on the longitudinal misalignment between the inner core and mantle, and on the bulk viscosity of the inner core. We establish constraints on the first two of these quantities from considerations of the axial component of this gravitational torque and from observed changes in length of day. These constraints suggest that the maximum polar motion from this mechanism is smaller than 1 mas, and too small to explain the Markowitz wobble.     

Precision Analytical Calculation of Geodynamical Effects on Satellite Motion

A new analytical method for calculating satellite orbital perturbations due to different disturbing forces is developed. It is based on the Poincaré method of small parameter but takes advantages of modern high-performance computers and of the tools of computer algebra. All perturbations proportional up to and including the 5th-order of small parameters are obtained. The method can precisely calculate the effects of all geodynamical forces on satellite motion given by the most up-to-date IAU and IERS models, such as non-central Earth gravity potential, precession and nutation of the geoequator, polar motion and irregularities in the Earth's rotation, effect of ocean and solid Earth tides, pole tide, and secular variations of gravity coefficients.Numerical tests prove the method's accuracy to be equivalent to 1–2 cm when calculating positions of high altitude geodetic satellites (like ETALON), and/or of GLONASS navigational spacecraft. The accuracy is stable over 1 year at least and comparable to that of the best tracking measurements of satellites.Positions of low altitude geodynamical satellites (like STARLETTE) by the analytical method are calculated to an accuracy of about 70cm over a month's interval. The method is developed for future use in GLONASS/GPS on-board ephemeris computation where it can improve the current scheme of their flight control.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Review of planetary and satellite theories

Planetary and satellite theories have been historically and are presently intimately related to the available computing capabilities, the accuracy of observational data, and the requirements of the astronomical community. Thus, the development of computers made it possible to replace planetary and lunar general theories with numerical integrations, or special perturbation methods. In turn, the availability of inexpensive small computers and high-speed computers with inexpensive memory stimulated the requirement to change from numerical integration back to general theories, or representative ephemerides, where the ephemerides could be calculated for a given date rather than using a table look-up process. In parallel with this progression, the observational accuracy has improved such that general theories cannot presently achieve the accuracy of the observations, and, in turn, it appears that in some cases the models and methods of numerical integration also need to be improved for the accuracies of the observations. Planetary and lunar theories were originally developed to be able to predict phenomena, and provide what are now considered low accuracy ephemerides of the bodies. This proceeded to the requirement for high accuracy ephemerides, and the progression of accuracy improvement has led to the discoveries of the variable rotation of the Earth, several planets, and a satellite. By means of mapping techniques, it is now possible to integrate a model of the motion of the entire solar system back for the history of the solar system. The challenges for the future are: Can general planetary and lunar theories with an acceptable number of terms achieve the accuracies of observations? How can numerical integrations more accurately represent the true motions of the solar system? Can regularly available observations be improved in accuracy? What are the meanings and interpretations of stability and chaos with respect to the motions of the bodies of our solar system? There has been a parallel progress and development of problems in dealing with the motions of artificial satellites. The large number of bodies of various sizes in the limited space around the Earth, subject to the additional forces of drag, radiation pressure, and Earth zonal and tesseral forces, require more accurate theories, improved observational accuracies, and improved prediction capabilities, so that potential collisions may be avoided. This must be accomplished by efficient use of computer capabilities.     

关于遥感影像处理分析的理论与方法之若干问题

遥感技术的发展还处于一个初级的阶段,有关遥感影像处理和分析的理论和方法十分匮乏,还没有建立起适合遥感影像特点的理论和方法体系。基于此,提出了建立以像斑分析为基础的遥感影像分析的理论和方法体系,并就多光谱/高光谱影像纹理分析的概念、方法、以像斑为基础的空间关系分析、分析过程中引入先验知识的方法及数据套合技术研究展开了讨论。