Areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh: How much did the satellite imagery show?

This paper presents the methods and results of visual interpretation of satellite imagery for estimating areal extent of the 1988 flood in Bangladesh. The main limitation of this method was that cloud-free images were not available for the peak flood period in the first week of September. Relatively cloud-free images on three selected dates in the last three weeks of September showed that areas of inundation on those dates ranged from 44000 to 60000 km² ± 5% (31 to 42% of Bangladesh). The Government of Bangladesh official estimates of the areal extent of flooding were tentative in nature, since these were based on a choropleth map of relative proportions (percentages) of flooding in different parts of the country. The official estimate of the maximum extent of flooding was 82000 km² (57% of Bangladesh), i.e. 15 to 26% larger than the area shown on satellite imagery. The actual extent of flooding was certainly larger than the estimates from satellite imagery but, perhaps, smaller than the official estimates, since a reduction of 15 to 26% of flood area in one to three weeks seemed unlikely. An alternative method of mapping flood-affected areas by using newspaper-interpreted data was attempted, but the method had limited values because of reporting bias.     

Effects of soil moisture dynamics on slope failure at Hyrum Reservior,Utah

Field observations of shoreline conditions at Hyrum Reservoir, Utah, were conducted during the summers of 1991 to 1993. A process of bluff retreat is described for a multiple-layered bluff environment of sand and clay layers. Failure is initiated by wetting and drying of clay sediments, which produces horizontal cracks within bluff material. These cracks appear to penetrate to a depth of approximately 100-150 mm before initiating vertical cracking in the sediments. The vertical cracks are propagated by continued drying of the surface sediment, ultimately leading to failure of the bluff material. The physical dimensions of sediment blocks succumbing to this mechanism range from a few hundred millimetres up to 3 m on a side, with a depth of approximately 100-150 mm. The mechanism described here appears to operate optimally when the supply of subsurface moisture is abundant and nearly continuous throughout the spring and early summer. Reservoir draw-down, large capillary fringe effects in the bluff and periodic wetting from upslope undrained hollows are the dominant moisture controls at this site. Moisture delivery to the face is strongly influenced by anisotropy of saturated hydraulic conductivity in the alternating clay and sand layers and related differences in sediment texture.     

Changing drainage patterns in a semi-arid area and their effects on groundwater resources

The magnitude of groundwater resources is poorly correlated with surface catchment area in a group of wadi bottom alluvial aquifers in Northern Oman. It is suggested that this is due to progressive water gap captures across a limestone ridge.     

Identification of buried sinkholes using refraction tomography at Ft. Campbell Army Airfield,Kentucky

Karst aquifers are highly susceptible to contamination, with numerous points of entry for contaminants through recharge features such as sinkholes, swallow holes and solutionally enlarged fractures. These recharge features may be filled or obscured at the surface, requiring the use of geophysical or remote sensing techniques for their identification. This study uses seismic refraction data collected at the Ft. Campbell Army Airfield (CAAF), Kentucky, USA, to test the hypothesis that refraction tomography is a useful tool for imaging bedrock depressions beneath thick overburden (greater than 20 m of unconsolidated sediment). Southeast of the main taxiway of CAAF seismic velocity tomograms imaged a bedrock low, possibly a closed depression, at a depth of 25 m that had been earlier identified through delay-time analysis of the same refraction data. Tomography suggests the bedrock low is about 250-m wide by 10-m deep at its widest point. High rates of contaminant vapor extraction over the western extension of this feature suggest a high concentration of contaminants above, and within, this filled bedrock low, the base of which may contain solutionally enlarged fractures (i.e. karst conduits) that could funnel these contaminants to the upper or lower bedrock aquifers. This study thus demonstrates the viability of seismic refraction tomography as a tool for identification of filled sinkholes and bedrock depressions in karst areas.     

Stochastic sketching of infiltration-advance isochrones

A technique has been developed for predicting the irregular advance pattern often observed as water spreads on the surface of the ground. The technique is a combination of stochastic sketching, potential theory, probability theory, and a mass balance equation in the form of an advance equation. The technique can be used on flat as well as sloping terrain and addresses any form of obstructions or constraints to the flow of the water. The stochastic sketching portion of the technique uses cellular automata with transition probability movement rules to sketch the dynamics of small volume water elements in the defined environment. Randomly selected small volume flow path segments are computed and plotted. The envelope of these segments defines the wetted area and the advance front. Several examples are presented showing the patterns produced for various situations.     

Stochastic perturbation analysis of groundwater flow. Spatially variable soils,semi-infinite domains and large fluctuations

As is well known, a complete stochastic solution of the stochastic differential equation governing saturated groundwater flow leads to an infinite hierarchy of equations in terms of higher-order moments. Perturbation techniques are commonly used to close this hierarchy, using power-series expansions. These methods are applied by truncating the series after a finite number of terms, and products of random gradients of conductivity and head potential are neglected. Uncertainty regarding the number or terms required to yield a sufficiently accurate result is a significant drawback with the application of power series-based perturbation methods for such problems. Low-order series truncation may be incapable of representing fundamental characteristics of flow and can lead to physically unreasonable and inaccurate solutions of the stochastic flow equation. To support this argument, one-dimensional, steady-state, saturated groundwater flow is examined, for the case of a spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity field. An ordinary power-series perturbation method is used to approximate the mean head, using second-order statistics to characterize the conductivity field. Then an interactive perturbation approach is introduced, which yields improved results compared to low-order, power-series perturbation methods for situations where strong interactions exist between terms in such approximations. The interactive perturbation concept is further developed using Feynman-type diagrams and graph theory, which reduce the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance functions. Both theoretical and practical advantages of diagrammatic solutions are discussed; these include the study of bounded domains and large fluctuations.     

Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

A need for incentivizing field hydrology,especially in an era of open data: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

The sharing of data and collection of new data are both essential, but they are not inherently complementary. When data are openly available, researchers may be motivated to use those data rather than collect more because field work has costs and risks. The competitive advantage to those who do not put resources towards fieldwork may discourage field hydrology. Allocating efforts towards generating field data, which benefits hydrological sciences, is not necessarily best for individual hydrologists, especially in an era of open data. The objective of this work is to open a conversation on whether individuals’ best interests may contrast with the community’s desire for new observations. If the community wants new field observations, there is a need to consider the shifting balance of incentives and disincentives for pursuing field studies in hydrology.