GMS5红外卫星云图参数化及在降水预测中的应用

从大气探测的基本原理出发,利用2001—2002年4—10月逐时的气象卫星红外云图和地面观测资料,对云图进行参数化估计,得到一些参数化估计结果,分析了不同视场条件下各类参数与降雨强度的关系,发现测站降水强度和其上空一定视场范围内的平均亮温、亮温方差、等效云量、亮温面积指数(1级、5级、6级)关系较明显,并利用最优子集回归方法建立小区域降水强度的预测方程,检验结果表明:利用红外资料估算未来6h的降雨强度其平均准确率在80%以上,分析视场大小对预测效果影响不大。     

H-adaptivity applied to liquefiable soil in nonlinear analysis of soil–pile interaction

This paper is concerned with application of the h-adaptive finite element method to dynamic analysis of a pile in liquefiable soil considering large deformation. In finite element analysis of pile behavior in liquefiable soil during an earthquake, especially considering large deformation of liquefied ground, error due to discretization in the zone near the pile becomes very large. Our purpose was to refine the approximation of the finite element method. The updated Lagrangian formulation and a cyclic elasto-plastic model based on the kinematic hardening rule were adopted to deal with the nonlinearity of the soil. The mixed finite element and finite difference methods together with the u-p formulation and Biot's two-phase mixture theory were used. To improve the accuracy and increase the efficiency of finite element analysis, an h-adaptive scheme that included a posteriori error estimation and h-version mesh refinement was applied to the analysis. The calculated results of effective stress were smoothed locally by the extrapolation method and smoothed stress was used to calculate the L₂ norm of the effective stress error in the last step of the calculation of each time increment. The mesh was refined by a fission procedure based on the indication of the error estimate As a numerical example, a soil–pile interaction system loaded cyclically was analyzed by our method.     

粤北山区区域差距与协调发展战略研究--以广东省韶关市为例

为了测度粤北山区的韶关市区域内部和外部的差距，首先对广东省的市际和地带性差距进行了分析，然后测度和分析了韶关市各县（市）区域差距的变动趋势。进而分析了韶关市现有区域协调政策的成绩和存在的问题。在此基础上，提出了韶关市的区域协调发展战略：建立健全多层次的区域协调机构；加大纵向和横向政府财政转移支付的力度；加强与相邻相关地区的协调；进行指引型区域管治。     

支持向量机(SVM)及其在场预测中的应用

介绍一种新的非线性回归分析方法--SVM回归.利用EOF能分解数据场和SVM回归分析可建立因子与预报量非线性关系的优势,设计预报方案：（1） 将因子场和预报场分别用方差标准化、EOF场展开,提取两场时间系数;（2） 用SVM回归分析实现因子场时间系数对预报场时间系数非线性预测;（3） 由预测的预报场时间系数与对应空间函数反演原场.用交叉检验的方法,对1960～2003年1月热带海表温度场预报汛期（6～8月）华中区域降水场进行试验.SVM回归44年独立预报平均技巧评分10.4%,较随机预报具有明显的技巧水平,优于经典回归.     

用可见光与红外云图资料综合作降雨量估算的试验

利用红外和可见光云图亮温资料估算单站降水量级,结果发现红外和可见光云图结合估算降水量效果比单用红外云图效果要好,大雨的空报率明显降低。     

PUVM2测轨方法的误差估计及其传播

本文根据误差理论,对ＰＵＶＭ２测轨方法的误差及其传播规律进行了初步的分析和研究,给出了卫星的轨道根数σ和空间位置ｒ↑→的内符合误差估计公式。     

粮食作物产量估算方法研究

文章分析了我国自然植被净第一生产力的分布状况和粮食作物生物量的时空变化，以及自然植被净第一生产力与粮食作物生物量的关系，并在此基础上，提出一种我为粮食作物产量的估算的方法。     

病态线性模型及其优良算法综述

本文扼要讨论了线性模型病态问题，综合论述了目前几种解算方法的思想及优缺点．     

330硅质断裂带变形特征及其与铀成矿作用的关系

本文从应力矿物、岩石组构、古应力估算及构造地球化学等方面对330产铀硅质断裂带的形成环境、发展演化及变形机制作了初步分析,并讨论了它们与铀成矿作用的关系。通过构造岩及石英、云母的微观研究,认为本断裂带经历了韧性—脆性—脆韧性—脆性的交替变换变形过程。韧性变形具有波状消光、变形纹、流动构造、B+S构造岩等显微构造和组构特征。据重结晶晶粒粒径测定,其差异应力平均值为0.5干巴。脆性变形与韧性变形明显不同,表现出破裂构造和角砾岩类发育,可见吕对尔线和石英沙钟构造以及S构造岩或均质组构等特点。早期韧性变形阶段形成的糜棱岩是一种富硅岩石,硅除主要来自后来的热液外,也来自原岩的动力分异和动热变质作用。韧性变形阶段之后接着是脆性变形阶段,岩石产生破裂构造,充填了早期脉体。成矿作用主要发生在形成碎裂糜棱岩的脆韧性变形阶段,此时的含矿断裂带是一个半开放系统,成矿的地质环境是:温度200—300℃,差异应力0.5干巴,区域差应力0.5干巴,深度1—2公里,基本上属低温浅成环境。     

A bound for the Euclidean norm of the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and a linear unbiased estimator

 A bound is established for the Euclidean norm of the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and any linear unbiased estimator in the general linear model. The bound involves the spectral norm of the difference between the dispersion matrices of the two estimators, and the residual sum of squares, all evaluated at the assumed model, but is independent of the provenance of the observation vector at hand. The bound, a straightforward consequence of first principles in Gauss–Markov theory, generalizes previous results on the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and the ordinary least-squares estimator. In a numerical example from repeated precise levelling, the bound is used to analyse the sensitivity of estimates of vertical motion to the choice of estimator. Received: 9 September 1999 / Accepted: 15 March 2002