热液系统输向大洋的热通量估算

从四个方面对现代海底热液活动输向大洋的热通量进行了初步估算.热液系统通过集中、高温的热液烟囱和低温、大面积漫溢热水的形式向海洋输送的热通量为357GW;由底热异常边界层计算出的热通量为32GW;根据Baker提出的扩张洋脊的扩张速率和扩张洋脊热液柱覆盖率之间的线性关系,推算的热液通量为1086GW;根据扩张洋脊岩墙冷却和扩张推算的热通量为592GW.不同的方法给出的结果有较大的差异.一方面这些结果反映了热液系统向大洋的供热水平,另一方面反映了目前对现代海底热液活动的认识水平.虽然热液系统向大洋的热输出比太阳的热辐射小,但由于其特殊的供热方式,这部分热能仍有可能对全球气候带来影响,应在今后的研究中给予重视.     

对333、334 资源量估算的讨论 ———以湖南白腊水锡矿床为例

<固体矿产资源储量分类>及<固体矿产地质勘查规范总则>对334资源量只有原则性的定义,对333、334资源量估算的工业指标及矿体圈定原则没有具体规定,现行规范中对预测资源量的圈定要求过高,同时也没有高于边界品位而低于最低工业品位资源量的编码,致使在资源量估算中不统一.文章试图以白腊水矿区锡矿资源量估算为例,就333、334资源量的估算进行讨论,建议将334分为3341和3342两类,并对333和334的控制程度、圈定原则、资源量编码、工业指标及资源储量比例等有关问题提出建议.     

全球与区域天然气水合物中天然气资源量估算

天然气水合物作为未来的一种替代能源引起了国内外很多研究者的关注,他们从不同的方面对天然气水合物进行了研究.随着研究的深入,许多研究者发现,全球天然气水合物中天然气资源量并没有最初认为的那么多,而且相差了几个数量级,这就大大降低了天然气水合物在未来能源中的地位.本文的研究目的是通过分析全球天然气水合物中天然气资源量的估算方法,归纳总结有关全球及区域估算天然气水合物中天然气资源量的文献,使人们对天然气水合物有个重新的认识,同时为未来的能源勘探开发提供一定的参考.通过分析我们发现全球天然气水合物中天然气资源量的估算值随着人们对天然气水合物认识程度的增加而降低;而且目前能够较准确反映全球海洋天然气水合物中天然气资源量的估算值是（1~5）×1015m3（大约500~2 500 Gt甲烷碳）.我们通过总结国外及国内几个典型区域的天然气资源量估算值还发现,国外研究者主要是根据钻孔及BSR资料确定用于计算天然气资源量的参数,使得计算结果较符合实际;而国内的学者基本是使用模拟计算及假设的方法确定各种参数,估算值仍存在很大差异,因此,我们认为只有获得实测数据才能使国内的估算结果更加接近实际.     

应用杨赤中滤波推估法计算库容量

应用杨赤中滤波推估法,利用二项系数加权游动平均对观测值序列进行逐遍滤波,建立估值数学模型,求得各个方格中心高程估值.再由水库工程的溢洪道高程设计值与各方格中心高程的差值,求得各方格的体积,汇总即得库容量.讨论了不规则边界处理算法.     

城市居民认知距离透视认知变形 ——-以北京市为例

对距离的认知是人类建立认知空间框架的重要基础。本文在相关研究的基础上, 对认知距离的特点进行了分析, 提出从数量认知距离与实际认知距离两种分析角度来分析这一概念。通过分别利用定义一元线性回归, 与 采用多维标度法(MDS)及二维回归(BR), 对认知距离的标量变形和向量变形进行定量分析。在此基础上, 以北京市 为例, 对北京市居民进行抽样调查。通过认知心理学实验的方式, 令被试估计城市主要地标两两之间的距离。对实 验结果分别将上述方法应用于计算北京市居民在标量变形和向量变形的定量化表示, 并进一步通过方差分析 (ANOVA)讨论了影响北京市居民对城市距离认知变形的因素, 包括年龄、居住地区等。     

拟准观测的选取和真误差估值的“分群”现象

以往检验粗差有两类不同的方法,一类是假设检验,另一类是抗差估计。它们虽然有显著不同,但都是以最小二乘残差及其函数为研究对象的。文献［8,9］提出了以真误差为研究对象的拟准检定法。该方法通过附加拟准观测真误差的估值极小的条件,直接求解关于真误差的秩亏方程,然后依据真误差估值的分布特征判别和定位粗差。 　拟准检定法的关键是如何正确的选择拟准观测。本文总结了实践中选择拟准观测的原则和方法。选择拟准观测可采用初选与复选两步来实施。初选时将观测值分为4类：“0”类是按一定规则经过初步判断怀疑含粗差可能性很大的,不宜选为拟准检测;“1”类是依内部可靠性指标衡量,所处位置结构差的观测;“2”类与“0”相反,是依一定指标判断含粗差可能性较小的观测;“3”类是除上述三种特殊情况以外,余下的观测。这四类观测中,“2”类以及“3”类中指标值ui相对较小的部分观测可初选为拟准观测。复选是在初选后计算出真误差估值的基础上,选取真误差估值绝对值较小的为拟准观测。本文指出拟准观测的初选可以不唯一。 　利用许多统计学者曾多次讨论过的一个算例［6,11］,详细介绍了选择拟准观测的过程,并将有关结果与以往的结果进行比较,用拟准检定法一方面排除了4个异常观测的影响,另一方面充分利用了其余观测的信息,结果可能更合理一些。 　拟准观测选择适当时,真误差估值有明显的“分群”现象。结合算例,本文用图表的形式形象地分析了这种有趣的现象。在表中,异常的和正常的真误差估值的量值有显著的分界带,含粗差的或异常观测的真误差明显大于正常的;在图中,异常值“浮”在分布图的上部,而正常值则“沉”在下方。依此特性可直观地判定粗差的位置。     

A CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ESTIMATE TECHNIQUE DEVELOPED BY NSMC OF CHINA*

In order to reveal the relation between strong convective cloud characteristics and rainfall rate,over 20000 hourly raingauge data from 333 weather stations and the corresponding 4000 convective cloud infrared images of GMS-4 during the period of 1992-1994 in Henan,Hubei and Sichuan Provinces were studied.The results show that cloud top temperature,temperature gradient,the growth of cloud,overshooting top and the normalized distance between a cloud covering pixels and the cluster center have certain relations to cloud precipitation.These relations can vary with different geographical regions.Based on the study above,a convective rainfall estimation technique was developed by the scientists in National Satellite Meteorological Center of China.Its average error is 30% for daily precipitation with a correlation coefficient of 0.69.     

Spatiotemporal factors affecting fish harvest and their use in estimating the monthly yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China

We used generalized additive models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between spatiotemporal factors and catch, and to estimate the monthly marine fishery yield of single otter trawls in Putuo district of Zhoushan, China. We used logbooks from five commercial fishing boats and data in government’s monthly statistical reports. We developed two GAM models: one included temporal variables (month and hauling time) and spatial variables (longitude and latitude), and another included just two variables, month and the number of fishing boats. Our results suggest that temporal factors explained more of the variability in catch than spatial factors. Furthermore, month explained the majority of variation in catch. Change in spatial distribution of fleet had a temporal component as the boats fished within a relatively small area within the same month, but the area varied among months. The number of boats fishing in each month also explained a large proportion of the variation in catch. Engine power had no effect on catch. The pseudo-coefficients (PCf) of the two GAMs were 0.13 and 0.29 respectively, indicating the both had good fits. The model yielded estimates that were very similar to those in the governmental reports between January to September, with relative estimate errors (REE) of <18%. However, the yields in October and November were significantly underestimated, with REEs of 36% and 27%, respectively.     

Petrology and geochemistry of ultrahigh‐temperature granulites from the South Altay orogenic belt,northwestern China: Implications for metamorphic evolution and protolith composition

Ultrahigh‐temperature (UHT) granulites in the South Altay orogenic belt of Northwestern China provide important clues for the lower crustal components and tectonic evolution of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt during the Paleozoic. In this paper, we studied whole‐rock geochemistry and mineral characteristics to understand the protolith and metamorphic evolution of the Altay UHT granulite. The Altay granulite shows negative discriminant function values (DF) of ?9.27 to ?3.95, indicating a sedimentary origin, probably an argillaceous rock. The peak metamorphic temperature–pressure conditions of 920–1010 °C and > 9 kbar were estimated from the geothermobarometry, together with the stability of spinel (low ZnO) + quartz and orthopyroxene (Al₂O₃ up to 9.2 wt.%) + sillimanite + quartz in the Altay UHT rock, indicate a UHT metamorphic condition has been achieved. Two stages of retrograde conditions are recognized in these rocks; the first is an isothermal decompression to approx. 750 °C at 5.2–5.8 kbar at the early stage, and the second is the cooling down to 520–550 °C at 4.8–5.2 kbar. Combined with previous study, the formation of the Altay UHT pelitic granulite with a clockwise retrograde P–T path is inferred to be related with collisional and accretional orogenic process between the Siberian and Kazakhstan–Junggar plates.     

测站气温与气压对GPS定位结果的影响

分别利用全球气压气温模型GPT和GPT2处理相同的连续观测站数据。对比两组测站位置估值（简称位置）发现,测站气压偏差所导致的先验天顶延迟偏差不能完全被延迟参数所吸收,导致测站垂向位置出现偏差,且偏差的大小与测站纬度及数据处理中所采用的数据权重有关。测站气温偏差对测站位置的影响可忽略不计,但GPS定位结果的内符合精度随着测站气温的升高而降低。