Evaluation on glaciers ecological services value in the Tianshan Mountains,Northwest China

Mountain glaciers, which perform a unique and irreplaceable ecological service, provide the material basis and characteristic cultural foundation of the ecological environment and sustainable socio-economic development in arid areas. However, few studies have estimated the service value of glaciers in regulating ecological environment and providing human welfare. According to the statistics of the First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory (FCGI/SCGI), this study analyzed the variations in glacier area and ice volume in the Tianshan Mountains in China and modeled the ecosystem service function of mountain glaciers. The service value per unit area and equivalent factor methods were combined to determine the annual value of the ecological service provided by glaciers in the study area. The results show that: (1) In the period 1970–2010, the glacier area decreased by 1274 km² (the ratio of area shrinkage was 13.9%) and the annual average decrease in ice volume was 4.08×10⁹ m³. The increase in glacier area at high altitudes (> 5200 m) may be due to the fact that glacier accumulation caused by increasing precipitation is greater than glacier melting caused by rising temperatures. (2) The annual value of the ecological service provided by glaciers in the study area is 60.2 billion yuan. The values of climate regulation, hydrological regulation, and freshwater resource supply account for 66.4%, 21.6%, and 9.3% of the total value respectively. The annual value of the ecological service provided by hydroelectric power is 350 million yuan. (3) From a comparative analysis of the glaciers, forest, grassland and wetland ecosystems, the supply of freshwater resources/physical production and ecological regulation represent the main contributions of the four types of system, and the ecosystem service value of glaciers per unit area is higher than that of other types of ecosystem. This research will improve the understanding of the impact of glaciers on human welfare and maintenance of the ecological environment and will promote the ecological security of the cryosphere, environmental protection, and the sustainable use of resources.

     

长白山白河林区森林资源间接经济价值评估

以长白山白河林区的森林资源为研究对象,探讨了森林资源间接经济价值的资产评估方法与计量:森林涵养水源价值评估与计量、森林CO₂固定价值评估与计量、土壤保护价值评估与计量、污染物降解的评估与计量、森林病虫害防治价值的评估与计量、营养循环价值的评估与计量等,并对此进行了量算,为本区和国内实现森林资源资产化管理和林业可持续发展提供了科学依据。     

岩石抗剪强度参数的稳健估计

提出了Ｍ－稳健估计计算岩体抗剪强度参数Ｃ,ｆ值的计算模型和方法。通过对白云鄂博主矿原位试验数据的稳健估计计算结果与最小二乘法的计算结果的对比分析表明：采用稳健估计的方法所估计出的参数更可靠。     

埕岛油田海底管道工程海域环境现状及质量评价

利用实测资料采用《中国近海水质评价方法》对工程海域环境现状进行分析和质量评价。结果表明工程海域水体主要污染为有机污染和石油污染,主要污染物为无机氮、无机磷、石油类、铅、海域为三类海水。靠近采油平台、油井组的站位水质差,远离平台、井组水质较好,说明海上石油开发带来了一定的污染。工程海域内的底质尚未受到污染。     

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基于Neumann级数的有偏估计方法

针对病态最小二乘问题,提出基于Neumann级数的有偏估计方法。由该方法建立的有偏估计公式,包含现有的最小二乘估计、岭估计和广义岭估计公式,建立有偏估计和无偏估计的本质联系,并可以据此引申出一系列新的有偏估计形式。在这一系列的有偏估计中,存在着比岭估计或广义岭估计更接近于真值的解。以一个病态方程组为例对该方法进行验证表明,当观测向量中含有误差时,由最小二乘估计所得结果和真值误差较大,而各级有偏估计的结果和真值更加接近,且二级和三级有偏估计结果比相应的岭估计更接近于真值。     

安徽庐枞地区铁矿资源量估算及结果对比

矿产资源定量估算是矿产资源评价的重要内容,针对安徽庐枞地区陆相火山岩型铁矿的罗河式、龙桥式2种类型,利用地质体积法、数量化理论Ⅰ、专家估分法、品位-吨位模型法及磁测定量估算法5种比较常用的资源量估算方法分别对该区铁矿进行了资源量估算。对比分析5种方法估算结果:磁测定量估算法估算的Ⅱ级资源量(5.02亿t)结果偏低、Ⅲ级资源量(30.46亿t)偏大;专家估分法估算资源量(4.55亿t)是最低的结果;品位-吨位模型法估算资源量(13.35亿t)结果偏低;数量化理论Ⅰ应用数学模拟估算结果(20.22亿t)偏大;地质体积法充分利用了各种地质条件,估算的资源量(14.90亿t)符合该区实际。据此,地质体积法适用性较好。     

无人驾驶飞机航测数据的葡萄种植面积估算方法

以无人驾驶飞机拍摄的影像为数据源,通过非监督、监督和人机交互式分类方法分别对小区域葡萄种植面积进行了估算,并结合实际调查数据,对比了三种分类方法在面积估算中的精度。     

全球探空站附近掩星观测资料误差估计

利用2016年1月1日至2020年10月1日GPS无线电掩星观测、探空观测、美国微波综合反演系统(MiRS)卫星微波资料反演产品、美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统(Global Forecast System, GFS)分析资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料这5种资料,采用“三角帽”方法,估计GPS掩星资料的观测误差,分析了资料集之间偏差和误差相关性对观测误差估计值的影响。结果表明,用MiRS资料替代ERA5再分析资料后所得到的掩星观测误差大于用掩星、探空观测、GFS分析和ERA5再分析资料的掩星观测误差。掩星观测误差随纬度增加而减小。本文对即将到来的掩星资料的合理应用具有重要意义。     

中国K-Ar法地质年龄标准物质ZBH-15黑云母的研制

为满足K-Ar定年中K和40Ar*分析的质量监控及Ar-Ar定年时中子通量监测的需要,我国氩同位素专家研制了一种K-Ar法年龄标准物质———采自北京房山花岗闪长岩体的ZBH-15黑云母。其40Ar/39Ar阶段加热实验结果表明,年龄谱平坦,39Ar析出量高达98.3%。坪年龄为132.2±0.2 Ma,总气体年龄为131.3±0.5 Ma,证明该黑云母结晶以后未受过热扰动。36Ar/40Ar-39Ar/40Ar反等时线年龄为132.3±0.8 Ma,40Ar/36Ar初始值为293.9±1.4,与大气氩丰度比值(295.5±0.5)处于同一范围,表明该样品不含过剩氩。在0.05显著性水平下经统计学检验,证明K和40Ar*的F值小于F临界值,说明该样品是均匀的。国内外7个实验室参加了K和40Ar*的定值分析。用同位素稀释法测定40Ar*含量,火焰光度法测定K含量。统计检验结果显示,K和40Ar*的全部定值数据服从正态分布并具等精度。定值分析结果的认定值及不确定度分别为:40Ar*=(1.814±0.014)×10-9mol/g,K=7.59%±0.02%,K-Ar年龄t=132.8±1.3 Ma(2σ)。此标准物质纯度为98.8%,粒度为0.15~0.25 mm,重量为2070 g,缩分成225瓶,每瓶9.2 g。可供我国K-Ar和Ar-Ar法实验室使用43 a。