历史强震编目中对无破坏记载地震参数的估定

本文分析了“中国历史强震目录”中无破坏记载地震的时、空、强特点,给出了估定无破坏记载地震参数的方法。”同时对方法适用的地区、估定震级的偏差、以及方法的物理意义做了讨论。     

浅谈粗差探测方法

由于受到自然界、仪器、人为等一些因素的影响,观测数据中不但存在偶然误差而且还存在着由这些因素引起的粗差。因此,对观测数据进行认真检测,定位并修正粗差观测,以提高参数估计的准确度和精度,一直是测绘工程领域的热点问题。本文对粗差探测进行了简要概述,同时详细地介绍了三种粗差探测方法。     

Generalized penalized least squares and its statistical characteristics

The solution properties of semiparametric model are analyzed, especially that penalized least squares for semiparametric model will be invalid when the matrixBTPB is ill-posed or singular. According to the principle of ridge estimate for linear parametric model, generalized penalized least squares for semiparametric model are put forward, and some formulae and statistical properties of estimates are derived. Finally according to simulation examples some helpful conclusions are drawn.     

Testing the Universal Soil Loss Equation‐MB equation in plots in Central and South Italy

Planning soil conservation strategies requires predictive techniques at event scale because a large percentage of soil loss over a long‐time period is due to relatively few large storms. Considering runoff is expected to improve soil loss predictions and allows relation of the process‐oriented approach with the empirical one, furthermore, the effects of detachment and transport on soil erosion processes can be distinguished by a runoff component. In this paper, the empirical model USLE‐MB (USLE‐M based), including a rainfall‐runoff erosivity factor in which the event rainfall erosivity index EI₃₀ of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) multiplies the runoff coefficient Q_R raised to an exponent b₁ > 1 is tested by the measurements carried out for the Masse (10 plots) and Sparacia (22 plots) experimental stations in Italy. For the Masse experimental station, an exponent b₁ > 1 was also estimated by tests carried out by a nozzle‐type rainfall simulator. For each experimental site in fallow conditions, the effect of the sample size of the plot soil loss measurements on the estimate of the b₁ coefficient was also studied by the extraction of a fixed number N of randomly obtained pairs of the normalized soil loss and runoff coefficient. The analysis showed that the variability of b₁ with N is low and that 350 pairs are sufficient to obtain a stable estimate of b₁. A total of 1,262 soil loss data were used to parameterize the model both locally and considering the two sites simultaneously. The b₁ exponent varied between the two sites (1.298–1.520), but using a common exponent (1.386) was possible. Using a common b₁ exponent for the two experimental areas increases the practical interest for the model and allows the estimation of a baseline component of the soil erodibility factor, which is representative of the at‐site soil intrinsic and quasi‐static properties. Development of a single USLE‐MB model appears possible, and sampling other sites is advisable to develop a single USLE‐MB model for general use.     

Lq估计的渐近方差-协方差矩阵及其特点

针对由独立同分布误差膨胀而成的独立不等精度误差,根据未知参数的M估计的Bahadur型线性表达式,本文导出了由观测量、残差向量、参数估计量和观测量平差向量组成的基本向量的Bahadur型表达式.进一步地,根据方差传播定律导出了M估计的基本向量的渐近方差-协方差矩阵,该矩阵由3个多余参数决定,第三多余参数由本文定义.对Lq范估计,分别计算了误差分别为正态分布和q范分布时的3个多余参数,以及相应的基本向量的方差协方差矩阵.对最小二乘估计,残差向量与参数估计量和观测量的平差向量统计独立,相应的协方差矩阵为零,这一性质与误差分布无关.对正态分布的Lq估计,残差向量与参数估计量和观测量平差向量的协方差不为零;而对q范分布的Lq估计,即是相应的极大似然估计,残差向量与参数估计量和观测量平差向量的协方差为零.文中所得公式和结论可用于统计分析.     

Occurrence of Hydroclathrus clathratus in northern New Zealand waters

Hydroclathrus clathratus (C. Agardh) Howe (Phacophyta: Punctariales) is recorded from two harbours on the Northland east coast, North Island, New Zealand. The possibility of its being a recently introduced species is discussed.     

两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法

探讨了预报评价的意义及应遵循的原则, 对常用的几种两类预报评分方法进行分析, 指出其应用的局限性, 得到一个判定所作预报水平是否高于随机预报、具有预报技巧的简易判别式; 提出评分权重的概念, 指出以往评分存在问题的根源是评分权重分配不当, 使评分结果的真实性受到影响, 评分无可比性, 进而提出一种考虑了评分权重的新评分方法。新评分方法满足预报评价的原则, 侧重于对两类事件中事件概率较小一方预报效果的评估, 评分结果不受事件概率影响, 具有可比性。对比分析表明:新方法比其他方法优越, 能更准确地反映预报水平, 使不同季节、不同地域的预报评分可进行比较, 是一个通用的评分方法。     

2009年华北平原大范围持续性高温过程的成因分析

使用NCEP再分析、常规和非常规观测资料对一次华北平原大范围持续性高温过程的成因进行分析。得出:中高层大陆高压(脊)、850 hPa高温区的稳定少动是此次持续性高温天气形成和维持的原因。高温持续期间地面以两种天气形势为主,一是华北地区处于低压带或低槽中,二是在我国西北地区生成的地面低压向东伸展与移动,华北地区处于低压前部。对高温范围及强度最强的24—25日期间,引起局地温度变化的各项因子进行了定量估算。结果显示:平流项在升温过程中作用较小,垂直输送项比较重要,在此次过程的升温中所占比例约30%;非绝热加热项作用较大,在此次过程的升温中所占比例约41%。因此在实际业务预报中,应重点考虑垂直输送项和非绝热加热项的作用。     

大口径三维曲线顶管顶力估算及实测分析

顶管顶进阻力由顶管机的迎面阻力和管节与土体间的摩阻力两部分组成,现有的顶力估算公式都具有一定的适用条件,虽然物理意义明确,但参数取值范围较大,往往估算顶力与实际工程顶力的匹配程度较低,尤其是在三维曲线顶管工程中受曲线段的影响,准确估算顶力的难度更大。以长413.0 m,外径为3.8 m,最小曲率半径为313.7 m的三维曲线顶管工程为研究对象,基于现有的顶力公式估算所需顶力大小并布设中继间,在该工程实测数据的基础上分析顶力组成及其与顶程、顶进曲率半径等影响因素之间的关系和顶管在平面曲线和垂直剖面曲线以不同曲率半径顶进的摩阻力变化规律。分析结果显示,曲线顶管摩阻力附加系数是真实存在的,且工程实测值与经验值有所偏差,但顶管在淤泥或黏土层中顶进时的摩阻力按规程推荐取值能够满足工程实践需求。最后提出了顶力估算及中继间的布置建议,为类似工程提供依据。