贝塞尔曲线在虚拟森林景观单树几何模型构建中的应用

虚拟景观模型的生成,需要对实际景观进行抽象和简化。树几何模型和数字高程模型(DEM)是构成虚拟森林景观的两大要素。而树几何模型的构建又是林业GIS三维可视化的基础。在树几何建模中,树干及树枝形状的可视化表达具有突出意义。由于实际树种的复杂性,在计算机中建树模型,通常采用基于过程建模的方式,而这将面临用户如何对模型进行交互式控制的问题：参数太少,不足以描述树形态特征,而参数太多,则模型难以生成和理解。为了解决这个问题,我们引进贝塞尔(Bezier)曲线这种基于控制点的自由曲线来描述树木中的树干以及树枝形状,利用对曲线控制点的变动来控制曲线的形状,进而生成形态各异的树形状,对此,我们基于ActiveX技术生成Bezier曲线控件。结果表明,该方法能够表示多种形状的树干与树枝,具有操作简捷、计算速度快,可视化效果良好的优点。     

柔性侧限条件下软土的变形特性及固结模型

软黏土具有含水率高、压缩性强、泊松比大的物理特性。对于深厚软黏土地基而言,在竖向荷载的作用下很难保证侧向变形为0,适当考虑侧向变形的柔性约束条件可能更符合工程实际。因此,提出了柔性侧限条件下的竖向固结试验方法,对原状土样及重塑土样分别进行了不同侧向约束条件下的竖向固结对比试验,分析了侧限条件对软黏土沉降特征及变形参数的影响。试验成果表明,柔性侧限条件下土体的主固结变形量、次固结变形量均较K0侧限条件下的大,主固结完成时间较短,且等时曲线非线性化程度更高。基于试验成果及ε-lgp曲线,引入非达西渗流理论,对一维Terzaghi经典固结理论进行修正,建立了柔性侧限约束条件下的非线性控制方程,此计算模型参数通过柔性侧限固结试验获取,可计算一定侧向变形条件下土体的变形特性,通过对室内试验成果的模拟验证了模型的有效性。     

辽宁盘锦荣兴港作业区MT19钻孔海洋沉积物粒度特征

使用激光粒度分析仪对辽宁盘锦荣兴港MT19钻孔6个样品进行分析,运用福克-沃德（Folk-Ward）图解法计算相关粒度参数并绘制输出粒度频率特征曲线。结果表明：盘锦荣兴港沉积物中黏土(d＜0.004 0 mm)的体积分数最小,平均值为8.49%;粉砂(0.004 0～0.063 mm)的体积分数较大,平均值为38.39%;砂(0.063～2.00 mm)的体积分数变化较大,平均值为53.13%。Shepard沉积物三角形分类图解表明,研究区沉积物类型多属于粉砂质黏土和黏土质粉砂;粒度频率曲线显示,除MT19-2-2号样品为主次三峰型外,其余均为主次双峰型,说明该区域在海进-海退过程中的某些时段沉积环境相似,出现了沉积物粒径组合及大小相似的情况。     

膨胀土干缩变形特性试验研究

膨胀土是一种典型的问题性土,对气候变化非常敏感,在干旱气候条件下,极易发生体积收缩变形,引发各种工 程地质问题。为了研究膨胀土的干缩变形特性,开展了一系列室内干燥试验,测定了膨胀土的收缩特征曲线,重点分析 了初始含水率和干密度对干缩变形过程的影响,并进一步探讨了水泥固化抑制膨胀土干缩变形的效果和机理。结果表 明：（1） 膨胀土的干缩变形过程存在三个典型阶段：正常收缩、残余收缩和零收缩;（2） 初始含水率越高,试样蒸发速 率越快,且干缩变形完全后试样孔隙比越小而最终收缩应变越大,干缩变形越明显;（3） 初始干密度越大,试样蒸发速 率和最终体积收缩应变越小,提高初始干密度对试样干缩变形具有一定的抑制作用;（4） 在膨胀土中掺入适量的水泥能 显著降低试样的体积收缩应变,对干缩变形具有良好的抑制效果;（5） 膨胀土的干缩变形具有明显的各向异性特征,并 且与初始状态有关。     

Reliability analysis of the induced damage for single-hole rock blasting

Rock explosion has always been a complex problem because neither rock characteristics nor explosion waves could be accurately estimated. As such, this imposes a high uncertainty on deterministic methodologies available for damage prediction. In this paper, by defining two damage zones around the blast hole, including crushed and cracked zones, a first-order reliability analysis (FORM) was adopted to address this issue. For this purpose, FORM was used in a double-loop algorithm, where the inner loop was responsible for converging the FORM, and the outer loop was assigned to feed the inner loop with new cases. Using such nested-loop algorithm, the probability of exceedance was calculated for any desired damage zone radius. The maximum effect of the involved parameters on the failure probability induced around the blast hole was additionally studied using a parametric reliability analysis. The results showed that the radii for crushed and cracked zones are limited to 0.5 and 4.2?m, respectively, so that the probability of going beyond these limits is less than 1%. Moreover, the analyses of decoupled explosions showed that increasing the gap between the explosion charge and wall of the borehole could severely reduce the failure probability; however, the maximum effect of decoupling ratio occurs in the small range of radii between 0.3?mm and 2.35?m.     

Multivariate adaptive regression splines for estimating riverine constituent concentrations

Regression-based methods are commonly used for riverine constituent concentration/flux estimation, which is essential for guiding water quality protection practices and environmental decision making. This paper developed a multivariate adaptive regression splines model for estimating riverine constituent concentrations (MARS-EC). The process, interpretability and flexibility of the MARS-EC modelling approach, was demonstrated for total nitrogen in the Patuxent River, a major river input to Chesapeake Bay. Model accuracy and uncertainty of the MARS-EC approach was further analysed using nitrate plus nitrite datasets from eight tributary rivers to Chesapeake Bay. Results showed that the MARS-EC approach integrated the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric regression methods, and model accuracy was demonstrated to be superior to the traditionally used ESTIMATOR model. MARS-EC is flexible and allows consideration of auxiliary variables; the variables and interactions can be selected automatically. MARS-EC does not constrain concentration-predictor curves to be constant but rather is able to identify shifts in these curves from mathematical expressions and visual graphics. The MARS-EC approach provides an effective and complementary tool along with existing approaches for estimating riverine constituent concentrations.     

Assessing basin storage: Comparison of hydrometric- and tracer-based indices of dynamic and total storage

Storage is a fundamental but elusive component of drainage basin function, influencing synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output and mediating basin sensitivity to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change. We compare hydrometric and isotopic approaches to estimate indices of dynamic and total basin storage, respectively, and assess inter-basin differences in these indices across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) region of southern Ontario, Canada. Dynamic storage indices for the 20 study basins included the ratio of baseflow to total streamflow (baseflow index BFI), Q ₉₉ flow and flow duration curve (FDC) slope. Ratios of the standard deviation of the streamflow stable isotope signal relative to that of precipitation were determined for each basin from a 1 year bi-weekly sampling program and used as indicators of total storage. Smaller ratios imply longer water travel times, smaller young water fractions (F _yw, < ~2–3 months in age) in streamflow and greater basin storage. Ratios were inversely related to BFI and Q ₉₉, and positively related to FDC slope, suggesting longer travel times and smaller F _yw for basins with stable baseflow-dominated streamflow regimes. Inter-basin differences in all indices reflected topographic, hydrogeologic and LULC controls on storage, which was greatest in steep, forest-covered headwaters underlain by permeable deposits with thick and relatively uniform unsaturated zones. Nevertheless, differential sensitivity of indices to controls on storage indicates the value of using several indices to capture more completely how basin characteristics influence storage. Regression relationships between storage indices and basin characteristics provided reasonable predictions of aspects of the streamflow regime of test basins in the ORM region. Such relationships and the underlying knowledge of controls on basin storage in this landscape provide the foundation for initial predictions of relative differences in streamflow response to regional changes in climate and LULC.     

国家需求结构演变理论及其应用——以中俄北极合作为例

首先,提出国家需求概念,在总结国家需求结构及其演变特点的基础上,提出双边关系中国家需求结构演变的三个模型：相对稳定型、合作优化型、关系紧张型。认为国家需求和人的需求一样,存在由低层次向高层次跃升的演变趋势。“低层次需求得到满足”是需求层次升级的前提条件,但这种满足具有方向性、主观性、阶段性。其次,运用国家需求结构演变模型分析了中俄北极开发合作的地缘政治环境,提出了维持中俄北极合作良好态势的对策建议：美国是中俄北极合作发生变数的能动力量,妥善处理好中美关系是重中之重;政治互信是中俄北极合作的决定性因素,加强双方在国际关系理论研究领域的合作是行之有效的政策工具;提高合作项目的透明度,向国际社会分享项目对生态环境和原住民影响的相关数据;加强战略沟通扩大共同利益,维持与美国盟友的合作伙伴关系;作为非北极国家,中国应该坚持对北极事务“有所为有所不为”的原则。最后,本研究得出如下几点结论：国家需求结构演变理论能够解释西方国际关系理论三大学派的核心观点;双边国家需求结构演变模型关注国际关系发生突变的规律性;国家需求结构演变理论能够为不同层次不同规模国家制定外交政策提供理论参考。     

黄土高原植被恢复潜力研究

黄土高原从1999年开始大规模退耕还林（草）,植被覆盖发生了较大变化,对黄土高原植被恢复现状和恢复潜力进行评估具有重要意义。本文使用1999-2013年SPOT VEG NDVI数据,采用线性回归、Hurst指数分析法、统计学方法以及地理空间分析技术,对黄土高原植被恢复状况和潜力进行了探讨。结论主要为：① 1999年退耕还林（草）以来,黄土高原植被覆盖度呈显著上升趋势,黄土高原三分之二地区的植被将会持续改善;② 植被响应曲线分析表明,黄土区植被覆盖度和干旱指数呈显著的指数关系,且缓坡相关性大于陡坡。土石山区植被响应函数为线性函数,相关系数下降;③ 整个黄土高原地区平均植被恢复潜力为69.75%。植被恢复潜力值东南高而西北低,黄土高原东南地区植被恢复状况较好,其植被恢复潜力指数较小,而植被恢复潜力指数较高的地区主要为北方风沙区及西部丘陵沟壑区;④ 不同降水量条件下,植被恢复速度差别显著,其中降水量在375~575 mm之间的地区,植被恢复最快。植被恢复措施应该“因水制宜”,避免因造林带来的土壤干化加剧。研究结果以期为黄土高原生态文明建设提供科学支撑。     

大连市初中教育消费者的社会空间结构研究

基于消费者差异的特色均等化是义务教育未来发展的重要指向。运用因子生态分析法对大连市域范围内189所初级中学学生的问卷调查数据进行分析,提取出5个主因子并划分为5类初中教育消费者,得出大连市初中教育消费者在空间上呈现出职业的城乡分化、受教育水平的南北差异等多重分异特征。然后采用聚类分析方法和集中度指数将所研究的初中教育消费者所在学校划分为4类,即高学历高收入家庭子女学校、城市中上收入家庭子女学校、农民及外出务工人员子女学校和工人及办事人员子女学校。最后根据不同类型初中教育消费者所在学校空间上的分布特征,归纳出大连市初中教育消费者社会空间结构的圈层分布特征。