黄河三角洲*暴雨雷达回波特征及临近预报

本文利用1994－1998年东营站713数字化雷达回波资料结合高空、地面形势，对发生在黄河三角洲地区的33个暴雨日41个暴雨中尺度雷达回波系统特征及形成过程进行了总结，提出了暴雨临近预报的着眼点。在1999年的预报服务中，取得了良好的经济效益和社会效益。     

海洋环境预报电视节目制作与回顾

作为海洋环境预报公益服务的窗口自开播至今,经历了20年的风风雨雨,海洋电视节目的内容从单一性的项目到海浪、海温、海冰、风暴潮、海水浴场综合性预报,电视视频信号从复合、分量信号到数字信号,通过光缆采用基带的方式传送视频信号到中央电视台.     

隶属函数的方法进行等级预报及隶属函数的构造

模糊数学在气象、水文预报领域中已经得到广泛的应用。其中，用隶属函数的方法作预报对象的多等级长期预报，能取得较好的效果。本文简要介绍用隶属函数的方法进行长期多等级预报的基本思路和步骤，重点介绍在作上述预报过程中，构造隶属函数的一种方法。     

基于EMD与神经网络的机械故障诊断技术

经验模式分解 (EMD)是分析非线性、非平稳信号的有力工具 ,它将信号分解为突出了原信号的不同时间尺度的局部特征信息的内在模函数 (IMF)分量。本文通过将各 IMF分量输入到 BP网络中进行训练学习和故障诊断 ,比直接输入原信号可以提高 BP网络对故障诊断的准确率 ,而且减少了训练时间。     

Nonparametric Estimates of the Sea State Bias for the Jason-1 Radar Altimeter

The Jason-1 sea state bias (SSB) is analyzed in depth from the first year of GDR products. Compared to previous missions, this work benefits from two aspects of the empirical determination of the SSB from the altimetric data themselves. First, from a methodological point of view, a nonparametric technique (NP) has been developed and largely tested on TOPEX/Poseidon 1, GFO and Envisat data. The NP estimator has proven to be a useful tool in the SSB estimation, and it is now mature enough to be used for a refined analysis. On the other hand, the SSB can be extracted from three different data sets (crossovers, collinear data, and residuals) with different characteristics. It is then possible to cross calibrate various estimations of the SSB models and to determine the most accurate one. A systematic comparison is made between these different estimates for the Jason-1 altimeter. The collinear and crossover data sets yield very similar estimates despite their difference of spatial and temporal distributions. These SSB models assure consistency with the TOPEX mission when comparing Jason-1 and TOPEX residuals during the tandem phase. Thanks to the present work, the impact of the short wavelengths filtering on the SSB estimation is evidenced. More generally, our understanding of potential errors affecting the sea surface height and their impact onto the SSB estimation is also improved.     

Estimation of Water Particle Velocities by Empirical Transfer Function

-In previous and this studies it appears that the linear and nonlinear wave theory can notaccurately and easily predict the water particle velocities.Therefore,different from the theoretical consider-ations,in this study we have attempted to determine the transfer function empirically.Laboratory experi-ments were performed under various wave conditions.The empirical formulas of the transfer function ofthe wave height,angular frequency and water particle velocity were obtained on the basis of these test databy dimensional analysis and regression analysis.In intermediate and deep water depth conditions,thetransfer function was only a function of a nondimensional parameter which is composed of the angular fre-quency,the depth of the velocity gauge under the still water level,water depth and the acceleration of grav-ity.Finally,the empirical formulas were compared with experimental data and observational data formpresent and Cavaleri's(1978)studies.The empirical formulas were found to be in sufficient correl     

杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用

本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验,并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式.利用5a的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,尤其对一些增水较大、影响较严重的台风增水预报相对更加准确,预报准确率均达90.0%以上.这说明订正后的公式对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报能得到较好的预报效果.     

中国西部地区基于经验模型的土壤水分反演

地表土壤水分含量的时空分布信息是十分重要的,常常作为水文模型、气候模型、生态模型的输入参数,同时,也是干旱预报、农作物估产等工作的重要指标。被动微波遥感是监测土壤含水量最有效的手段之一。相比红外与可见光,它具有波长长,穿透能力强的优势。相比主动微波雷达,被动微波辐射计具有监测面积大、周期短,受粗糙度影响小,对土壤水分更为敏感,算法更为成熟的优势。目前,已研究出许多反演土壤水分的方法.本课题的主要内容是借助AMSR-E土壤水分影像数据、MODIS归一化植被指数(NDVI)影像数据和MODIS分类影像数据,利用ENVI软件进行遥感图像数据处理,运用统计分析方法建立NDVI与土壤水分的经验模型,研究中国西部地区稀疏植被覆盖区土壤水分的反演。