Estimation of tsunami hazard from volcanic activity — Suggested methodology with Augustine volcano,Alaska as an example

A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.     

全球月平均高度距平场正斜压性的分析(Ⅱ)——与遥相关型的联系

利用欧洲中心全球客观分析的7层月平均位势高度距平资料,计算了几种大气环流遥相关型指数与各层位势高度距平的相关系数分布。发现:大气环流异常的正压、斜压性的地理差异与遥相关型的垂直结构关系密切。综合经验正交函数分析,结果亦然。     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

THE RESPONSE OF SUMMER DRYNESS/WETNESS PROBABILITY IN NORTH CHINA TO GLOBAL WARMING

Using the data of summer(June—August)precipitation during the period of 1951—1990 in 14 stations over NorthChina,the wetness probability(WP)series based on gamma distribution has been built.Main temporal and spatial char-acteristics for the series of WP in the stations are extracted by using empirical orthogonal functions(EOFs).The spatialpatterns show that the dryness/wetness variations in the stations in the area are consistent with each other and its maincharacteristics can be represented by the WP series in Beijing.Having analysed the WP series of 120 years(1870—1989)in Beijing,the results show that the dry tendency has a re-sponse to the global warming.The variation of the dryness/wetness in the stations is associated with the temperaturevariation in the Northern Hemisphere.Their relation is negative.The degree of the reliance is associated with the centuryvariation of the temperature.     

Precise determination of focal parameters for July 20, 1995 M_L=4.1 earthquake sequence in the Huailai basin

IntroductionSince the late 1970s, the quickly developed global digital seismograph network has been providing high quality recordings of large earthquakes in global scale, based on which digital seismology has made great progress. Compared with large earthquakes, moderate and small sized shocks have more frequent occurrence, and comprise clues to geological tectonics and tectonic stress field in a region. Preceding and following a large earthquake, usually occur numbers of small events that im…     

EVALUATION OF MODELS FOR ESTIMATION OF NET RADIATION FOR ALPINE SLOPING SURFACES

This paper describes and tests two models for estimating net radiation(or the radiation balance)on sloping surfacesof alpine environments.They are an empirical method based on the linear relationship between net radiation and globalsolar radiation and a flux-by-flux method involving the estimation of all the individual components of radiation budgetindependently.The results show that the empirical method is capable of predicting hourly net radiation on sloping sur-faces to within about±53 W m~(-2) under all sky conditions.During clear sky conditions,it could predict net radiation onslopes to within±58 W m~(-2) or 16% of the measured values.The flux-by-flux method,although it did not perform aswell as the empirical method,performed adequately and could give estimates of net radiation on slopes with root meansquare error of less than 74 W m~(-2)(20%)and a mean bias error of 27 W m~(-2)(7%).     

拉萨近地层风廓线模拟

本文利用1986年中美联合青藏高原大气科学试验期间的考察资料,研究了拉萨近郊风廊线的特征。从莫宁——奥布赫夫相似理论出发,建立了青藏高原近地层风廓线模拟的模式。     

Empirical relationships between diversity of invertebrate communities and altitude in rivers: Application to biomonitoring

The relationships between the diversity of invertebrate communities and the altitude of sampling sites were analysed in 438 benthic samples, collected between 1982 and 1991, in 56 rivers of western Switzerland. Diversity, estimated from total number of taxa (genus or family) and from number of taxa intolerant of pollution, was positively correlated with increasing altitude. In contrast, density of human population and the level of organic pollution were negatively correlated with increasing altitude. Therefore, the upstream increase of invertebrate diversity was attributed to the decrease of human population which is the main source of organic pollution. In this study, altitude was used, instead of organic pollution, to predict diversity. Empirical relationships between diversity and altitude were applied to surveys of water quality to describe the general altitudinal pattern characteristic for each region and to single out anomalous sites and rivers. In addition, changes in the altitudinal patterns of diversity can be used to monitor the recovery of rivers from pollution.     

北半球高纬地区年际尺度循环过程中的气-海-冰相互作用关系

基于一个全球气-海-冰耦合模式数值模拟结果,对北半球高纬度地区年际尺度的气-海-冰相互作用进行了分析。在所使用的全球气-海-冰耦合模式中,大气环流模式和陆面过程模式来自国家气候中心,海洋环流模式和海冰模式来自中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室。采用一种逐日通量距平耦合方案实现次网格尺度海冰非均匀条件下大气环流模式和海洋环流模式在高纬地区的耦合。只对50 a模拟结果中的后30 a结果进行了分析。在分析中,首先对滤波后的北半球高纬度地区海平面气压、表面大气温度、海表面温度、海冰密集度及海表面感热通量的标准化距平做联合复经验正交函数分解,取第一模进行重建,然后讨论了在一个循环周期(约4 a)中北半球高纬度地区气-海-冰的作用关系。结果表明:(1)当北大西洋涛动处于正位相时,格陵兰海出现南风异常,使表面大气温度升高,海洋失去感热通量减少,海洋表面温度升高,海冰密集度减小;当北大西洋涛动处于负位相时,格陵兰海出现北风异常,使表面大气温度降低,海洋失去感热通量增多,海洋表面温度降低,海冰密集度增加。巴伦支海变化特点与格陵兰海相似,但在时间上并不完全一致。(2)多年平均而言,北冰洋内部靠近极点区域为冷中心。当北冰洋内部为低压异常时,因异常中心偏向太平洋一侧,使北冰洋内部靠近太平洋部分为暖平流异常,靠近大西洋一侧为冷平流异常。伴随着暖、冷平流异常,这两侧分别出现暖异常和冷异常,海表面给大气的感热通量分别偏少和偏多,上述海区海表面温度分别偏高和偏低,海冰密集度分别偏小和偏大。当北冰洋内部为高压异常时特点正好与上述相反。由上述分析结果可知,在海洋、大气年际循环中,大尺度大气环流变率起主导作用,海洋表面温度和海冰密集度变化主要是对大气环流变化的响应。     

河南夏季高温日数的时空分布特征及500hPa环流型

对河南省40个代表站1961-2005年夏季≥35℃高温日数进行经验正交函数(EOF)展开分析,结果显示,前3个典型场基本能反映河南夏季高温日数分布的主要特征,前3个模态的累积方差贡献率达85%。据此,得出河南夏季≥35℃高温日数的时空分布类型为全省一致型、西北至东南差异型和西南至东北差异型。第一模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度最大,第二模态对应的时间系数序列的变化幅度比前一个时间序列要小。第一模态的时间系数演变显示,河南夏季高温日数平均呈减少趋势,且存在2~4 a、8~14 a的周期变化,目前河南夏季高温日数正处于偏多状态中。应用逐日20时500 hPa ECMWF北半球格点资料,对1991-2005年河南典型的大面积持续高温下的环流形势进行普查、分类,分别求各种类型下的环流平均场,从而得到河南省高温的两种环流型,即贝加尔湖高压型和副热带高压型。