山东半岛一次强暴雨的分析和数值模拟

利用T213资料、常规观测资料和多普勒雷达资料,对2004年8月5日发生在山东半岛东部的一次大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟和分析,在模拟结果比较成功的基础上,利用细网格模拟资料重点分析了高、低空急流和850 hPa低压与暴雨的关系,以及山东半岛地形的动力作用。结果表明:暴雨强回波从南向北传播时强度逐渐增强,反映了中尺度对流系统的结构和发展;对流云团首先在低空急流中心左前方生成,与副热带高压边缘的西南暖湿气流有关,中尺度高空急流是伴随对流由强高空出流而形成,高、低空急流的耦合作用有利于强对流天气的维持和发展;在副热带高压西侧边界层激发出一个中β尺度低压,该低压形成后与暴雨区相伴移动,且移动路径与山东半岛东部地形分布有关,山东半岛地形对西南暖湿气流阻挡和绕流的动力作用是导致威海附近强暴雨的原因之一。     

Simulation of the Direct Radiative Effect of Mineral Dust and Sea Salt Aerosols in a Doubled Carbon Dioxide Climate

The authors examine the equilibrium climatic response to the direct radiative effect(DRE)of mineral dust and sea salt aerosols in a doubled-CO2climate with two-way coupling of aerosol-climate interactions.In response to the drier and windier conditions,dust emissions increase by 26%in the Sahara Desert and by 18%on the global scale relative to present day.Sea salt emissions increase in high latitudes(60°)but decrease in middle latitudes(30°–60°)of both hemispheres due to the poleward shift of westerlies,leading to a 3%decrease in global emissions.The burdens of dust and sea salt increase by 31%and 7%respectively,because reductions in rainfall over the tropical oceans increase the lifetime of particles in the warmer climate.The higher aerosol loading in the doubled-CO2climate reinforces aerosol DRE by0.2 W m 2,leading to an additional cooling of 0.1°C at the surface compared with the climatic effects of aerosols in present day.The additional cooling from changes in natural aerosols compensates for up to 15%of the regional warming induced by doubled CO2.     

Domestic actions contributing to the mitigation of GHG emissions from power generation in Brazil

Abstract

Continued growth and the privatisation of Brazil's electricity system, which is largely based upon hydropower, is projected to lead to big expansion mainly of natural gas but also coal power stations with a resulting huge growth in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions unless steps are taken to avoid this. The Brazilian National Program of Power Conservation and Efficient Use of Electrical Energy in terms of avoided GHG emissions (PROCEL), originally created in 1985, is a multi-stakeholder program coordinated by Eletrobrás aimed to reduce the waste of electrical power on both supply and demand side. Initially crippled by lack of funds, a new finance structure introduced in 1994 has greatly increased PROCEL's impact. Here we develop scenarios that suggest that continued expansion of PROCEL's programme, including resources that might be drawn through clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, to meet projected PROCEL targets over the next two decades could avoid approximately one-third of the GHG emissions from the Brazilian power sector. This contribution demonstrates the significant global environmental benefits of PROCEL in addition to national benefits of this innovative programme.     

Effects of Urbanization on Extreme Warmest Night Temperatures During Summer near Bohai

Many previous studies have focused on the impacts of urbanization on regional mean temperatures. Relatively few have analyzed changes in extreme temperatures. Here, we examine the impact of urbanization on extreme warmest night temperatures from 33 stations in the Bohai area between 1958 and 2009. We compute the Generalized Extreme Value（GEV） distribution of extreme warmest night temperatures and analyze long-term variations in its characteristic parameters. A new classification method based on the factor analysis of changes in extreme night temperatures is developed to detect the efects of urbanization in diferent cities. Of the three parameters that characterize the GEV distribution, the position parameter is the most representative of long-term changes in extreme warmest night temperatures. During the period of rapid urbanization（i.e., after 1978）, all three parameters of the GEV distribution are larger for the urban station group than for the reference station group, so are the magnitudes of their variations, and the urban areas have been experiencing higher extreme warmest night temperatures with larger variability. Diferent types of cities in the Bohai area have all experienced an urban heat island efect, with an average urbanization efect of approximately 0.3 per decade.     

近40a来西安市区与郊县气温变化特征对比

利用西安市区及郊县国家级一般气象站1971年12月至2011年11月的年、季、年代平均气温作为研究对象,采用一元回归线性拟合、距平分析、变异系数、冷（暖）冬期、突变检验等分析方法,分析总结近40a来市区及郊县的气温变化特征：（1）市区及郊县的逐年平均气温均呈上升趋势,且市区增温速率高于郊县0．27℃／10a;（2）市区逐年极端最高气温基本持平,逐年极端最低气温明显升高;（3）市区及郊县1990年代前升温缓慢,1990年代后升温迅速;（4）市区和郊县的年平均气温升高主要来自春季和冬季升温的贡献;（5）市区及郊县冷冬基本都出现在1980年代中期之前,暖冬均出现在1990年代末以后,且市区冬季气温距平上升率高于郊县;（6）郊县的突变时间早于市区。     

Cross-equatorial structures of equatorially trapped nonlinear Rossby waves

Analysis of the Sea Surface Height (SSH) from satellite altimeters has shown that equatorially trapped Rossby waves exhibit asymmetric cross-equatorial structures; their northern extrema are much larger in magnitude than their southern counterparts. Such asymmetry is inconsistent with the classical theory for the first baroclinic, first meridional equatorially trapped Rossby mode, which predicts that SSH and zonal velocity are symmetric in latitude and the meridional velocity is latitudinally antisymmetric (Matsuno, 1966). Chelton et al. (2003) attributed the observed asymmetry to the mean-shear-induced modifications of first meridional mode Rossby waves. The present paper examines nonlinear rectification of cross-equatorial wave structures in the presence of different zonal mean currents. Nonlinear traveling Rossby waves embedded in shears are calculated numerically in a 1.5-layer model. Nonlinearity is shown to increase the cross-equatorial asymmetry substantially making the northern extrema even more pronounced. However, nonlinearity only slightly increases the magnitude of the westward phase speed.     

双线偏振雷达判别降水粒子类型技术及其检验

在综合分析国内外降水粒子相态识别方法的基础上,结合我国双线偏振雷达的应用需求,建立了一套利用双线偏振雷达探测资料识别降水粒子类型的识别模式,并根据美国KOUN雷达观测资料对该模式进行了分析验证,同时检验了模式中的几个偏振参数:差分反射率因子ZDR、差传播相移KDP、水平偏振和垂直偏振回波功率零滞后互相关系数ρHV(0)对不同降水粒子的识别效果。通过分析认为:利用该识别模式得到的结果基本合理,可以反映降水区域内降水粒子的相态结构,但还需要对资料作进一步的研究。同时在识别各类降水粒子方面,ZDR的效果要高于KDP和ρHV(0),在缺乏相关资料的情况下可以考虑用ZH和ZDR配对识别的结果作为真实的结果。     

上海市郊林带的气候效应

对上海市郊林带附近与非林带冬、夏季典型天气下温、湿度、蒸发、辐射量的同步观测资料分析研究显示:林带附近气温日较差比非林带大,林带背风侧气温日较差比林带迎风侧大。林带附近日蒸发量比非林带小,日平均相对湿度比非林带大。林带附近散射辐射比非林带小,反射辐射比非林带大,总辐射差异与季节及林带树叶的茂密程度有关,白天净辐射差异主要取决于总辐射和反射辐射差异,夜间净辐射差异与林带及两地地温差有关。     

14时探空在改进北京地区对流天气潜势预报中的作用

为了探讨增加14时探空对于对流天气短时临近潜势预报的作用。用1995—2005年北京地区22个人工观测站资料统计了夏季常见的对流天气日变化特征。结果表明,41．6％的雷阵雨、61．3％的冰雹以及58．5％的雷暴大风发生在15—-20时之间。利用探空资料计算并对比了出现在2006年7—9月14时探空释放后到20时期问11个雷暴个例的08时和14时BCAPE、DCAPE、CIN等对流参数。结果表明,对于多数个例,在判断对流是否发生时14时探空优于08时。因此,增加14时探空对于提高对流天气有无预报准确率有帮助。     

An approximate analytical solution for the deposition of heavy particles released from an elevated line source

This work re-examines and further develops an analytical solution for the deposition swath of heavy particles released in the atmosphere from an elevated source over uniform terrain, correcting the particle diffusivity for the crossing trajectory effect. The revised (approximate) analytical solution proves to be accurate within 20% over a wide range of micrometeorological conditions and particle size, despite its neglect of the turbulence component of the deposition flux. It compares very satisfactorily with experimental data and with the simulations of a Lagrangian stochastic model, provided the variable U(H)/w _g ≤7 (ratio of the mean horizontal wind speed at source height to the particle settling velocity). In this domain of validity, simple formulae relating the statistics of the deposition swath to U(H)/w _g are derived.