场地效应研究的传递台站线性反演法——以芦山地震为例

采用线性反演法研究了地震动的场地效应,并针对线性反演法的局限性,提出了"传递台站"的方法来扩展其应用.通过传递台站,地震事件不再局限于必须被参考台记录到,台站也不再局限于须与参考台站同时获取到地震记录,改进后可大大增加数据样本,使得结果更趋稳定.同时,对于原来难以参与分析的台站,也可得到其场地反应.研究中,还采用了基于遗传算法的非参考台方法,进一步分析了场地反应和验证所提方法的合理性.将所提方法应用于2013年芦山7.0级地震周边区域,分析了这一地区的强震台站的场地反应和地震波衰减因子Q_s值.研究结果显示,当采用一个和二个传递台站进行分析时,所能利用的地震事件和所能求解场地反应的台站数目逐步增加,随着数据样本的增加,分析结果趋于稳定.研究区域的Q_s值拟合结果为Q_s(f)=334.16f~(0.73).遗传算法结果表明,线性反演法中所选取的参考台站有其自身的场地反应.当利用遗传算法获得的参考场的场地反应去校正线性反演法的结果时,对于多数场地,两者的结果符合得很好,说明了遗传算法的结果可以合理地认为是场地较为真实的反应.     

强震记录对三个土层地震反应分析程序的检验

为了对国内外广泛使用的3个一维土层地震反应分析程序（DENSOR98、SHAKE91和LSSRLI-1）的计算精度进行检验,本文以4次地震中唐山响瞠井下三维台阵的基岩强震记录为输入地震动,利用这3个程序对此测井剖面分别进行计算,计算结果分别与同次地震中相应的台阵地表强震记录相比较,可得如下结论：在地震动不大的情况下,3个程序都可满足工程要求,其差别为SHAKE91算得的峰值偏大,DENSOR98算得的峰值偏小,LSSRLI-1得到的反应谱更接近实际,DENSOR98得到的反应谱偏低,从安全角度和经济角度综合来看,LSSRLI-1程序较好。     

An evaluation of the Arctic clouds and surface radiative fluxes in CMIP6 models

To assess the performances of state-of-the-art global climate models on simulating the Arctic clouds and surface radiation balance, the 2001–2014 Arctic Basin surface radiation budget, clouds, and the cloud radiative effects(CREs) in 22 coupled model intercomparison project 6(CMIP6) models are evaluated against satellite observations. For the results from CMIP6 multi-model mean, cloud fraction(CF) peaks in autumn and is lowest in winter and spring, consistent with that from three satellite observation products(Cloud Sat-CALIPSO, CERESMODIS, and APP-x). Simulated CF also shows consistent spatial patterns with those in observations. However,almost all models overestimate the CF amount throughout the year when compared to CERES-MODIS and APP-x.On average, clouds warm the surface of the Arctic Basin mainly via the longwave(LW) radiation cloud warming effect in winter. Simulated surface energy loss of LW is less than that in CERES-EBAF observation, while the net surface shortwave(SW) flux is underestimated. The biases may result from the stronger cloud LW warming effect and SW cooling effect from the overestimated CF by the models. These two biases compensate each other,yielding similar net surface radiation flux between model output(3.0 W/m~2) and CERES-EBAF observation(6.1 W/m~2). During 2001–2014, significant increasing trend of spring CF is found in the multi-model mean,consistent with previous studies based on surface and satellite observations. Although most of the 22 CMIP6 models show common seasonal cycles of CF and liquid water path/ice water path(LWP/IWP), large inter-model spreads exist in the amounts of CF and LWP/IWP throughout the year, indicating the influences of different cloud parameterization schemes used in different models. Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project(CFMIP)observation simulator package(COSP) is a great tool to accurately assess the performance of climate models on simulating clouds. More intuitive and credible evaluation results can be obtained based on the COSP model output. In the future, with the release of more COSP output of CMIP6 models, it is expected that those inter-model spreads and the model-observation biases can be substantially reduced. Longer term active satellite observations are also necessary to evaluate models' cloud simulations and to further explore the role of clouds in the rapid Arctic climate changes.     

Geomorphic effectiveness: a linear concept in a non‐linear world

Geomorphic effectiveness has been an influential concept in geomorphology since its introduction by Reds Wolman and John Miller in 1960. It provided a much needed framework to assess the significance of an event by comparing event magnitude to the resultant geomorphic effects. Initially, this concept was applied primarily in river channels, under the linear assumption that geomorphic responses to similarly sized flood events will be consistent. Numerous authors have since attempted to quantify a direct, proportional relationship between event magnitude and different forms of geomorphic response in a variety of geomorphic settings. In doing so, these investigations applied an array of metrics that were difficult to compare across different spatiotemporal scales, and physiographic and geomorphic environments. Critically, the emergence of other geomorphic concepts such as sensitivity, connectivity, thresholds, and recovery has shown that relationships between causes (events) and geomorphic effects (responses) are often complex and non‐linear. This paper disentangles the complex historical development of the geomorphic effectiveness concept and reviews the utility of various metrics for quantifying effectiveness. We propose that total energy (joules) is the most appropriate metric to use for quantifying the magnitude of disturbance events (cause) and volumetric sediment flux associated with landform modification is the most appropriate metric for quantifying geomorphic effects. While both metrics are difficult to quantify, they are the only ones which facilitate comparison across a range of spatiotemporal scales (comparability) in a variety of geomorphic environments (flexibility). The geomorphic effectiveness concept can continue to be useful provided that geomorphologists use flexible and comparable metrics. Today, geomorphologists are better prepared to consider the influence of non‐linear processes on determinations of geomorphic effectiveness, allowing investigators to not only determine if a disturbance event was effective but also to explain why or why not. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于CSI效应的直线电机驱动塔系结构风振控制研究

控制系统与结构振动的相互作用(Control Structure Interaction,简称CSI)广泛存在于结构与主动控制系统之间,然而目前在直线电机驱动的塔系结构风振控制研究中往往没有充分考虑CSI效应,使得理论控制效果与实际控制效果存在偏差。为了考察CSI效应对塔系结构风振控制的影响,首先以电磁驱动AMD系统"电-力-运动"相互关系模型为基础,建立考虑CSI效应的塔系结构直线电机驱动AMD风振控制系统模型;其次综合权衡计算效率和控制精度的关系,选取考虑低阶CSI效应模型以及最经典的LQR控制算法。在此基础上,对该塔系结构确定是否考虑CSI效应进行相应的控制分析。结果表明,CSI效应在塔系结构风振控制中起着重要的作用,制定与实际工程结合更佳的直线电机驱动AMD系统风振控制方案中需要考虑CSI效应,为以后在实际工程中推广应用提供一种新思路。     

Enhanced bed load sediment transport by unsteady flows in a degrading channel

Laboratory flume experiments were done to investigate bed load sediment transport by both steady and unsteady flows in a degrading channel. The bed, respectively composed of uniform sand, uniform gravel, or sand-gravel mixtures, always undergoes bulk degradation. It is found that both uniform and non-uniform bed load transport is enhanced greatly by unsteady flows as compared to their volume-equivalent steady flows. This enhancement effect is evaluated by means of an enhancement factor, which is shown to be larger with a coarser bed and lower discharges. Also, the fractional transport rates of gravel and sand in non-uniform sand-gravel mixtures are compared with their uniform counterparts under both steady and unsteady flows. The sand is found to be able to greatly promote the transport of gravel, whilst the gravel considerably hinders the transport of sand. Particularly, the promoting and hindering impacts are more pronounced at lower discharges and tend to be weakened by flow unsteadiness.     

Review on the study of topographic effect on seismic ground motion

Topographic effect study is a very important research topic in seismology, seismic engineering,earthquake engineering, engineering earthquake construction and engineering seismology. This paper focuses on its present development status. Post-earthquake investigation has found that the existence of topography caused more serious earthquake damage. The actual seismographs also recorded the topographic amplification effect of 6 to 7 times and even more than 10 times. Numerical simulation is an important technique to study topographic effect, which complements the lack of observed records. However researches on 3-D topographic effect are not enough and need to be studied deeper. To find the main influence factors and the quantitative relationship between topography and ground motion are required very urgently. Obviously the achievements not only can be applied in the earthquake resistant design, but also can provide the quantitative pre-earthquake disaster prediction and quantitative post-earthquake disaster evaluation.     

答“评‘紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用’二维模拟的局限性”

程惠红等(2015)在"评‘紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用’二维模拟的局限性"一文中提出,陶玮等(2014)采用二维模型模拟紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化是一个不足,夸大了汶川地震震源处库仑应力增长值.我们认为采用二维模型模拟水库造成汶川地震震源处库仑应力变化确实可能存在一定偏差,但不会如程惠红等认为的"与三维模型相比夸大三倍".这是因为在程惠红等引用的论证中,二维模型计算中选取了接近水库最大剖面宽度而不是水库平均剖面宽度作为加载量参数,造成计算得到震源处库仑应力明显夸大.此外,陶玮等(2014)提出论断的主要依据不是"震源处"库仑应力值的大小,而是紫坪铺水库蓄水"由浅入深影响到整条断层,尤其对浅层范围的加载作用明显,达上百千帕,为整个断层面的失稳提供了基础".初始破裂的发生既可能是由水库蓄水引起,也可能是并非水库蓄水造成的一次普通构造小震,但其发生引发断层面上部已被水库蓄水弱化部分的连锁失稳而发生大震.即汶川地震既可能为直接触发也可能为间接触发,而我们的研究结果认为地震的发生完全可能由间接触发产生.若仅纠结于"震源处"的库仑应力变化,则忽视了水库蓄水影响的主体.水库蓄水对地震触发作用是一个复杂问题,相对这一问题所涉及的一系列不确定性因素来说,二维模拟的局限性所造成的影响并不很大也不是最大的,也不妨碍我们据此得出紫坪铺水库蓄水促进汶川地震发生的结论.     

遥感数据产品真实性检验不确定性分析研究进展

不确定性分析是遥感产品真实性检验最重要的部分,本文以叶面积指数LAI为例,从测量、模型以及蕴含在测量和模型中的尺度效应3个方面分析产品真实性检验过程的不确定性来源,并针对问题提出减小其不确定性的办法。对于相对均一的地表,地面测量的空间代表性比较好,可不考虑地表空间代表性引起的尺度效应和蕴含在模型中的尺度效应引起的不确定性。针对异质性地表,分为两种情况:若模型是线性的,蕴含在模型中的尺度效应可以忽略,只需要考虑测量的不确定性、模型本身的不确定性、以及地面测量的空间代表性引起的尺度效应;若模型是非线性的,则测量、模型和蕴含在测量和模型中的尺度效应引起的不确定性都需要考虑。