基于在线回声状态网络的变形数据预测分析

结合Kalman滤波与回声状态网络,将在线回声状态网络算法应用于变形数据预测。回声状态网络的输出权值通过Kalman滤波训练,直接对网络的输出权值进行在线更新,克服了传统递归网络需要收集大量样本后才能进行拟合预测的缺陷,同时也保证了预测精度。实例计算验证了该方法的有效性。     

南疆2011年5月一次强冰雹天气的综合分析

综合分析了2011年5月24日发生在南疆五团境内的一次强冰雹天气。结果表明,冰雹天气是在有利的天气背景下发生的,冰雹区上空的辐合上升运动为冰雹出现提供了动力抬升条件。L波段高空探测秒数据显示,雹暴发生前中低层风速明显增大并有暖平流。冰雹发生地存在层结不稳定和能量堆积。强雹暴的回波特点是,组合反射率因子CR长时间维持在50 dBZ以上,伴有弱回波区,液态水含量密度最高达4.0 g·m-3,垂直高度接近12 km。     

2010年7月31日吉林省东南部短时强降水过程分析

利用吉林省加密站实时观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和吉林省白山观测站多普勒雷达等资料,对2010 年7月31日吉林省东南部的短时强降水天气过程进行初步分析。结果表明：500hPa平直锋区上短波扰动出现往往伴随强对流天气的发生;上冷下暖的热力垂直结构有利于低层辐合抬升;当风场引起的辐合抬升仅存在于底层时降水不会发生,故更需关注整层风场的结构变化;强降水水汽来自于暴雨区前期降水的积累,缺外来水汽的持续输送是此次强降水历时短的主要原因之一;小股冷空气入侵高温高湿气团是导致不稳定能量释放的主要原因,强降水落区对应于冷空气侵入高能区位置,强降水时段对应K指数由极大值减小的过程;多普勒雷达资料中雷达回波的强度和缺口、径向速度的强度和零线形状、以及逆风区对预报短时强降水具有很好的指示意义。     

多极化冰雷达所揭示的DOME A区域冰盖内部冰晶组构特征

The ice exceeding one million years old has significant meaning for verifying and interpreting the middle Pleistocene transition （MPT） and the relationship between greenhouse gas and climate change. The region near Dome A in Antarctica satisfies the conditions for obtaining million-years-old ice since it has low temperatures and low accumulation rates. We analyze the corresponding relation between radar wave features and the crystal orientation fabric （COF） types based on the results of multi-polarization plane radio echo sounding （RES）. The results show that, even in the summit of the ice sheet, the COF type is not perfect, but is an elongated single-pole COF. Principal-axis-orientation differences of the COF among the different periods exist and reveal that the ice flow orientations are not constant but deviate clockwise with the increasing depth. This may be related to the adjacent basal valley or both height and position changes of the summit during the glacial-interglacial periods.     

应用雷达拼图数据估测降水试验

利用2008年6月5～7日广东省新一代天气雷达网(广州、梅州、韶关、阳江、深圳及汕头6部雷达)的雷达原始体扫资料及自动雨量站资料,对广东省3 km高度上的雷达网系统观测值差异进行了分析,发现广州雷达的观测值比周围雷达偏高1～3 dBz,梅州雷达比其周围雷达的观测值偏低1～2 dBz。用Z-R关系和最优插值校准法分别进行6 min和1 h估测降水,并用面雨量偏差和均方根误差对该次降水估测试验做了简单评估。结果显示:6 min定量估测降水,两种方法都会低估,面雨量越大,估测效果越好;对于1 h定量估测降水,各种估测方法都有偏高或偏低情况,但普遍偏高,其中用先累加再用最优插值校准法校准的雷达-雨量计联合估测方法效果最好;短时降水估测可以很好地反映降水过程变化,而长时间降水估测可以较准确估测降水大小。     

高分辨率波束形成器在多波束测深系统中的应用

对于海底地形测量,基于FT波束形成的幅度检测法空间分辨率较低,只能较准确给出有限测点的水深信息;平坦海底前提下,分裂子阵检测法或多子阵检测法可以得到连续测点的水深信息,复杂海底地形条件下,这两种方法均难以应用。能否利用高分辨率波束形成器来提高测深系统的空间分辨率是一个值得研究的问题。使用ESPRIT波束形成器处理了多波束测深系统的试验数据,并就其性能与FT波束形成器进行了比较与分析。     

基于气候统计特征的雷达回波质控方法

利用北京南郊S波段雷达2011—2016年的观测资料,从雷达气候统计的角度,利用不同强度回波发生频率的统计特征及其空间分布特征,对雷达地物杂波和波束遮挡的识别与订正方法进行研究。结果表明:①利用雷达回波出现频率特征,可以很好地识别雷达近中心地物杂波和受地形高度影响的地物杂波特征;同时还可以直观地识别出雷达波束遮挡区域以及遮挡程度。北京南郊雷达地物杂波主要分布在近雷达中心和北京西部、西北部的山前地区,地物杂波主要集中在0.5°仰角和1.5°仰角层上。雷达波束遮挡主要集中在由高大建筑引起遮挡的东南方位向和由于地形引起波束遮挡的西西北方位向,波束遮挡主要集中在0.5°仰角层。②采用局部可变区域平均垂直廓线方法利用高仰角回波订正低仰角回波,能有效订正地物杂波,并保留回波的局部特征。对于波束遮挡区域的回波填补,也能够较好地保持上下层仰角回波之间的连续性,同时兼顾了回波不均性分布等特性。③基于雷达气候特征进行地物杂波识别和波束遮挡识别,无需依照先验知识,相比于传统方法能更好地反映本地雷达回波真实情况,且具有方法简单、可快速复用、本地适用性强等优点。     

Development of method in precise multibeam acoustic bathymetry

The sound ray tracing method can achieve higher accuracy in determining depths and plan positions with muhibeam echo sounding sys-tem. In data processing, actual sound speed profile must be used in the method. However, the method is too complicated. In order to overcome the shortcoming, this paper presents a new method, the position correction method. Two situations are considered in the new method, namely, change of sound velocity keeps constant gradient in whole water column (including N layers) or in different water layer.     

Radio‐echo layering in West Antarctica: a spreadsheet dataset

Of the various information recovered from radio‐echo sounding (RES) of polar ice sheets, internal layering is currently under‐utilized by glaciologists, due in part to a lack of available data. Here, RES layering of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, from the 1970s RES survey of approximately 70 per cent of this ice mass, is made available in a series of spreadsheets. Three types of internal layers are evident in the dataset. The first is continuous layers that have a stratigraphic appearance and can often be traced easily for hundreds of kilometres. The second is buckled layering, which also resembles stratigraphy and can sometimes be traced over tens of kilometres (although layer identification can often be difficult). The roughness of these layers is often greater than the bed at the same wavelength. The third is highly distorted or absent layering, which is not possible to trace laterally. Despite debate concerning the origin of RES layers, they are thought by most glaciologists to represent isochronous surfaces. The pattern of internal layering is potentially of importance to glaciologists for three reasons. (1) The position of undeformed layers below the ice surface is a function of accumulation rate, ice flow and basal melting conditions. Numerical modelling (including new ‘data assimilation’ techniques) could be used to discriminate between these processes, so revealing important information about the ice sheet and its environment. (2) Buckled layers are deformed by ice flow process, and so their occurrence can be related to the flow dynamics of the ice sheet. (3) Very buckled layers are often associated with ice stream flow, which allows their location to mark the positions of past and present fast‐flowing ice. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

荤尔勒地区两次强对流天气过程的形势和雷达回波对比分析

通过对2006年5月3日和7月17日库尔勒地区两次强对流天气的形势和物理量对比分析，以及库尔勒新一代天气雷达（CINRAD—CC）产品中的组合反射率（CR）、风暴相对平均径向速度（V）等产品的分析，得出库尔勒地区夏季强对流天气过程发生时的有利天气形势、物理量场分布及多谱勒天气雷达产品特征。