Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Net Energy Payback and CO2 Emissions from Three Midwestern Wind Farms: An Update

This paper updates a life-cycle net energy analysis and carbon dioxide emissions analysis of three Midwestern utility-scale wind systems. Both the Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) and CO₂ analysis results provide useful data for policy discussions regarding an efficient and low-carbon energy mix. The EPR is the amount of electrical energy produced for the lifetime of the power plant divided by the total amount of energy required to procure and transport the materials, build, operate, and decommission the power plants. The CO₂ analysis for each power plant was calculated from the life-cycle energy input data. A previous study also analyzed coal and nuclear fission power plants. At the time of that study, two of the three wind systems had less than a full year of generation data to project the life-cycle energy production. This study updates the analysis of three wind systems with an additional four to eight years of operating data. The EPR for the utility-scale wind systems ranges from a low of 11 for a two-turbine system in Wisconsin to 28 for a 143-turbine system in southwestern Minnesota. The EPR is 11 for coal, 25 for fission with gas centrifuge enriched uranium and 7 for gaseous diffusion enriched uranium. The normalized CO₂ emissions, in tonnes of CO₂ per GW_eh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.     

龙永煤田危机矿山资源接替的几种勘探模式

通过龙永煤田现有煤矿状况调查分析发现：许多矿井已步入“花甲之年”，接近矿井服务年限。为了保障我省能源安全，应当采用有效勘探方法，方能使它们“返老还童”。研究发现危机矿山延长服务年限的几种勘探模式是：其一为扩大（延伸）勘探模式；其二为小型井田（块段）勘探模式；其三为资料分析研究模式。经探采对比发现，采用这三种勘探模式后，产生了巨大的经济效益，使一大批老矿井青春再度焕发。     

Geolord-AT空三加密软件处理数码航片的方法

在Geolord-AT空三加密软件中对数码航片进行框标定向的前期处理，创建带有框标的数码航片或者直接创建内定向的＊．kb文件，使数码航片顺利按要求通过内定向。     

塔里木盆地阿克库勒地区石炭系卡拉沙依组成岩作用

阿克库勒地区卡拉沙依组碎屑岩储层的成分成熟度和结构成熟度均较低．储层的次生溶蚀孔隙所占比例远高了：原生孔隙，次生孔隙是储层的主要储集空间．样品数据统计显示，卡拉沙依组储层属于低孔、低渗储层类型．根据岩石薄片、铸体薄片观察及储层样品的扫描电镜和阴极发光分析结果，本区石炭系储层主要经历的成岩作用有压实（压溶）作用、胶结作用、溶蚀作用和交代作用，其中碳酸盐矿物的沉淀和溶蚀作用是本区卡拉沙依组储层所经历的最重要的成岩作用．成岩作用已达到晚成岩B期，早期方解石交代石英颗粒并发生大量溶蚀，生成大量次生孔隙，晚期方解石没有发生溶蚀．     

南海西南部曾母盆地早中新世以来沉降史分析

采用回剥法和局部均衡模式研究曾母盆地早中新世以来的沉降史，并探讨了该盆地构造演化特征。曾母盆地自早中新世以来经历了17．5-11．6Ma、11．6-5．5Ma、5．5-3．0Ma和3．0-0Ma的4次快速沉降作用，其构造演化受控于曾母地块与南沙地块及婆罗洲地块的碰撞和盆地两侧的万安-卢帕尔断裂与廷贾走滑断裂的综合作用，可划分为南北双向挤压（晚始新世-早中新世）、走滑改造（中中新世-晚中新世）和区域沉降（上新世-第四纪）3个演化阶段。     

山东车镇凹陷东部古近系沙河街组成岩作用

车镇凹陷沙河街组的沉积体系受控于盆地内的构造、物源供给以及沉积时的气候环境。以岩石学特征为基础，描述了成岩过程中压实与压溶作用、胶结作用、溶解作用与次生孔隙的特征，以及次生孔隙带在本区的分布。论述了碳酸盐胶结物与粘土矿物胶结作用的特点。粘土矿物蒙脱石-伊利石转变具有明显的渐变与突变交替的演化程式，其演化经历了蒙脱石带、渐变带、迅速转化带和伊利石带以及蒙脱石向伊利石的转变带。沙河街组的成岩作用划分为早期成岩阶段（A期、B期）和晚期成岩阶段（A期、B期、C期），并提出了成岩阶段的划分标志。     

泌阳凹陷安棚油田深层系成岩作用研究及其在成岩圈闭预测中的应用

深层系一般指沉积盆地中埋藏深度在2 500～2 700 m以下的地层,其储集物性普遍很差,但在一定条件下,深部溶蚀作用可产生优质储层,形成成岩圈闭.然而这种成岩圈闭的预测一直是一个难题.安棚油田位于河南泌阳凹陷东南部,勘探成果表明,在该油田深层系下第三系核桃园组核三段下部(简称(核三下)席状的扇三角洲砂体中存在成岩圈闭.本次通过定量的成岩作用研究和成岩阶段划分,对成岩圈闭的形成机理和分布进行了探讨.研究表明,该区核三下的砂体经历了压实、胶结、溶蚀等多种成岩作用,不同的成岩作用发生于不同的埋藏深度.2 700～3 100 m之间以胶结强烈为特征,属于胶结带.3 100～3 900 m之间以次生溶蚀孔隙发育为特征,尤其是3 200～3 600 m之间, 属于深部溶蚀带.本区核三下砂体自南而北埋藏深度逐渐变浅,其上倾方向处于胶结带的部分由于强烈胶结而变成致密层,可封堵油气,而下倾方向处于溶蚀带的部分由于次生溶蚀孔隙发育而成为良好储层,从而形成成岩圈闭.根据不同埋藏深度、不同成岩阶段孔隙发育和保存的特征,可预测成岩圈闭分布。     

地下水水质预警信息系统研究

地下水水质预警是对地下水水质现状及变化趋势适时给出相应给别警戒信息的方法，包括状态预警和趋势预警两部分。以GIS技术为核心，将水质预警模型与GIS技术相结合，建立了地下水水质预警信息系统。并以吉林省西部平原地区地下水水质为例，研究了该区地下水水质恶化地区的分布、趋势、恶化预警等级及其成因。地下水水质预警系统为地下水资源管理，减少地下水水质恶化的风险提供了科学依据。     

用翁氏模型图版设计早期油气田(藏)开发方案

由于缺乏早期资料，设计早期油气田（藏）开发方案是非常困难的。在制作翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版和ER-ctR图版过程提出根据探明储量No、经济极限产量Qc、假定达到峰值产量的时间tm、最终采收率ER，由翁氏模型的Qctm/No-ER图版求取增长指数b，由翁氏模型ER-ctR图版求取ctR，再求出其他参数及所有的油气田（藏）开发指标，完成早期油气田（藏）开发方案设计。