GM（1，1）动态模型在吴江市地下水水位预测中的应用

以吴江市地下水水位预测为例,详细阐述了地下水水位时间序列的GM（1,1）动态模型的原理和建立过程,并根据模型的预测值和实测值,对模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,模型的预测精度达到了99．27％,等级属于Ⅰ级,具有实际的应用价值,为地下水资源的科学管理提供了依据。     

图文数据动态联接与多维数据管理在城市规划管理信息系统中的应用

城市规划管理是一项综合性、复杂性、系统性、实践性、科学性很强的技术行政管理工作,直接关系到城市规划能否顺利实施。本文主要论述图文数据的动态联接与多维数据管理在数字城市规划管理中的应用。     

印度洋岸边某电站工程的岩土工程问题初探

从海岸地带的地理地质环境入手,针对燃煤电站工程的特点,就工程建设中的几个主要岩土工程问题,分析探讨了其成因、特点和对工程建设的制约与影响程度．提出了解决这些问题的对策和建议。     

动态最小二乘支持向量机学习算法

针对大样本集的训练问题和动态训练样本的模型更新问题,提出了动态最小二乘支持向量机学习算法.该算法充分利用已建好的模型,逐渐加入新样本,并可删除位于任何位置的非支持向量,避免了矩阵求逆运算,保证了算法的高效率.大坝变形及电离层延迟两个时间序列的预报实例表明,该算法具有计算时间短、预报精度高的特点.     

大连滨海湿地景观格局变化及其驱动机制

以2000年和2006年TM卫星影像为主要数据源,配合其它非遥感数据,在遥感与地理信息系统技术支持下,运用景观生态学原理,选取反映景观空间结构和景观异质性的指数,对大连地区湿地的整体景观格局和类型景观格局及其动态变化进行定量分析.结果表明:6年间,大连湿地面积减少了97.62 km2;整体景观多样性指数和均匀度指数降低,优势度指数增加;各类景观格局时间序列上也存在明显差异性变化.湿地景观格局指数的变化, 反映了移山填海工业园区的扩大及养殖业的大力发展等人为活动对景观格局的深刻影响.人为活动已成为大连市湿地景观格局变化的主要驱动因子.     

Earthquake rupture complexity due to dynamic nucleation and interaction of subsidiary faults

We numerically study the dynamic interaction of propagating cracks. It is assumed that propagating cracks can nucleate and drive subsidiary cracks because of shear strain enhancement near the propagating crack tips. The critical strain fracture criterion is assumed in the analysis. Intense interaction is expected to occur among the cracks. All the cracks are assumed to be parallel and antiplane strain deformation is assumed in the computation.In the interaction of two non-coplanar cracks, a strain shadow is formed in the neighborhood of each crack because of the strain release by the introduction of the crack. The growth of each crack is accelerated when the propagating tips of each crack are outside of the strain shadow of the other crack. In general, the crack tips enter the strain shadow, and the crack tips decelerate. The calculation shows that only one of the two cracks can continue to grow, and the other's growth is decelerated and arrested. If we can assume that the suite of cracks interact in a pairwise manner only, then this may suggest that only a limited number of cracks can continue to grow during the final stage of the rupture process. Hence the crack interaction causes complexity in dynamic earthquake faulting. The concepts of barrier and asperity have been employed by many researchers for the interpretation of complex seismic wave data. However, the physical realities of such concepts are obscure. Our calculations show that dynamic crack interactions can produce barriers and asperities in some cases; the crack tip deceleration or arrest due to the interactions among non-coplanar cracks can be interpreted as being due to a barrier. The dynamic coalescence among the coplanar cracks can be regarded as an asperity.Umeda found a localized area that strongly radiates high-frequency seismic waves in the epicentral areas of some large shallow earthquakes. He defined this as an earthquake bright spot. Our analysis implies that only a limited number of cracks continue to grow when many interactive cracks nucleate, and that all other cracks stop extending soon after nucleation. Hence, if the nucleation and termination of several cracks occur in a localized area, it will be observed seismologically as an earthquake bright spot. This is because it is theoretically known that the sudden termination of crack growth and dynamic crack coalescence efficiently emits high-frequency elastic waves.     

热液成矿作用的地质地球化学动力学——以胶东牟平-乳山金矿带为例

通过对胶东牟平—乳山热液脉状金,铅锌矿床成矿动力学控制规律的研究,说明了建立热液成矿反应体系的方法,并得出以下认识:（1）区域断裂构造活动,通过影响成矿反应体系的热力学性质和条件,控制元素的富集和分散。（2）热液成矿过程中容矿断裂活动可划分为两种作用方式:脆性破裂和韧—脆性张开,构成热液成矿的两种构造动力学环境。（3）热液成矿反应体系是一种开放的动态的热力学体系。断裂的脆性破裂阶段,使体系处于强烈的过饱和状态,矿质在远离平衡状态下快速结晶,加剧物质分异;在脆—韧性张开阶段,矿质在接近平衡态体系中缓慢晶出。（4）热液演化晚期,金在残余溶液中富集;当断裂再次发生构造脉动震颤时,早期形成的块状黄铁矿矿石碎裂,富金溶液充填其中,形成含裂隙金和晶隙金的富矿石。成矿体系热力学演化与构造动力学条件有利的匹配控制着富矿石的形成。     

鲁23井“动水位”观测的分析

本文介绍了鲁23井“动水位”观测情况。提出了一个分析有泄流的“动水位”的新方法,即把流量换算成水位,以等效静水位来表示“动水位”与流量。由于把“动水位”与流量用一个量来计算,从而为“动水位”观测定量的、统一的分析研究提供了新的方法。这对提高“动水位”井的监测预报地震能力起一定的作用。 本文还以鲁23井“动水位”观测资料为例,利用新方法进行处理的观测分析结果与理论研究结果是一致的。     

近海核电厂核素地下水释放通量的模型计算方法

为了定量计算陵区近海核电站排水管线泄漏情景下核素通过地下水途径向海洋环境的释放通量，以某近海核电站为例进行研究。首先，应用GOCAD软件建立三维地形地质模型，刻画地层的分布、剥蚀以及倾向等特点；然后，运用地下水数值模拟软件FEFLOW精细刻画丘陵区地下水系统的补给、径流和排泄特征；最后，以不被吸附滞留的核素³H和被吸附滞留的核素⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs为对象，通过实验测定了⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs在不同岩土介质中的分配系数，模拟计算了排水管线连续渗漏60 a后³H、⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs在地下水中的放射性分布及释放。结果表明：³H迁移速度基本与地下水流速一致，地下水中的最大放射性浓度为0.285 0 Bq/L，第20 000天时向收纳水域的释放通量达到最大值，约526 Bq/d；⁹⁰Sr吸附性能相对较弱，最大迁移距离约80 m，地下水中的最大放射性浓度为0.032 1 Bq/L；¹³⁷Cs吸附能力较强，相当长的时间内被滞留在管线附近，地下水中最大放射性浓度分别为6.840×10^-3 Bq/L，释放通量为0 Bq/d。由弥散度的不确定分析可知，弥散度越大，地下水中³H的最大放射性浓度越小，向海洋环境的释放通量越多。     

Plerospheres and their role in reduction of emitted fine fly ash particles

Particles, less than PM10 in size, emitted from the stack of pulverized coal-fired power plants are of environmental concern since they can easily enter the human respiratory track. These fine particles are examined by Scanning Electron Microscope/Electron Dispersive Spectrometry （SEM/EDX）. Plerospheres are found in fly ash and are particles containing smaller particles formed during combustion of coal. The large plerospheres 〉50 μm mostly are present in ESP fly ash, indicating that they are effectively capturing fine particles and reducing their stack emission.