一种估计观测资料动态误差的方法

给出一种较好的观测资料动态误差估计的方法：单圈改进法，该方法从轨道理论出发，有明确的物理背景，避免了最小二乘拟合阶数和Vondrak平滑法平滑因子不确定性，较为准确地估计了观测资料的动态误差．另外该方法能够反映观测资料的不正常的跳动，对准确地评估观测仪器的性能，进一步改进观测仪器是有益处的．     

海河平原东部地区地面沉降机理与趋势

海河平原东部地区是中国水资源最紧缺的地区之一。地下水开采量占该地区供水总水量的60％以上。深、浅层地下水超采量均超过500亿m^3。该区也是山前拦蓄地表径流最高的地区,大小水库达1820多座,拦蓄能力320亿m^3,控制山区流域面积近90％。在地下水补给源减少与大规模超采地下水的综合作用下,造成平原区河流干涸、地下水水位持续下降、含水层疏干及地面沉降等环境地质问题。同时诱发了含水层之间强越流渗透以求动力场平衡问题,第四系松散地层出现垂向压密而导致地层塑性变形。在滨海平原区,区域性地层垂向压密变形存在缓慢发展趋势。研究表明,地面沉降致灾过程至少存在3个阶段,即自然沉降机制阶段、缓变劣变质变阶段以及快速衰变破坏阶段。缓变劣变质变阶段是采取措施减灾最佳时期。     

‘Surface Drag in the Arctic Marginal Sea-ice Zone: A Comparison of Different Parameterisation Concepts’

Two parameterisation schemes for the turbulent surface fluxes and drag coefficients over the Arctic marginal sea-ice zone (MIZ) are (further) developed, and their results are compared with each other. Although the schemes are based on different principles (flux averaging and parameter averaging), the resulting drag coefficients differ only slightly in the case of neutral and stable stratification. For unstable stratification and sea-ice conditions being typical for the north-eastern Fram Strait, the drag coefficients resulting from the parameter-averaging concept are 5–10% larger than those of the flux-averaging concept. At a sea-ice concentration of 45%, the parameter-averaging method overestimates the heat fluxes by a factor of 1.2. An inclusion in the schemes of form drag caused by floe edges and ridges has a much larger effect on the drag coefficient, and on the momentum fluxes, than the choice between the parameter-averaging or flux-averaging methods. Based on sensitivity studies with the flux-averaging scheme, a simple formula for the effective drag coefficient above the Arctic MIZ is derived. It reduces the computational costs of the more complex parameterisations and could also be used in larger scale models. With this simple formula, the effective drag coefficient can be calculated as a function of the sea-ice concentration and skin drag coefficients for water and ice floes. The results obtained with this parameterisation differ only slightly from those using the more complex schemes. Finally, it is shown that in the MIZ, drag coefficients for sea-ice models may differ significantly from the effective drag coefficients used in atmospheric models.     

Summer boundary-layer height at the plateau site of Dome’C,antarctica

Measurements of the mean and turbulent structure of the planetary boundary layer using a sodar and a sonic anemometer, and radiative measurements using a radiometer, were carried out in the summer of 1999–2000 at the Antarctic plateau station of Dome C during a two-month period. At Dome C strong ground-based inversions dominate for most of the year. However, in spite of the low surface temperatures (between −50 and −20 °C), and the surface always covered by snow and ice, a regular daytime boundary-layer evolution, similar to that observed at mid-latitudes, was observed during summertime. The mixed-layer height generally reaches 200–300 m at 1300–1400 LST in high summer (late December, early January); late in the summer (end of January to February), as the solar elevation decreases, it reduces to 100–200 m. A comparison between the mixed-layer height estimated from sodar measurements and that calculated using a mixed-layer growth model shows a rather satisfactory agreement if we assign a value of 0.01–0.02 m s⁻¹ to the subsidence velocity at the top of the mixed layer, and a value of 0.003–0.004 K m⁻¹ to the potential temperature gradient above the mixed layer.     

Typological factor analysis: A new classification method applied to geology

The purpose of typological factor analysis is to detect, within a multidimensional sample, the existence of subsets characterized by different maximal elongation directions. The method which has been successfully applied in the field of pattern recognition can be considered from two points of view: (1) an automatic classification or dynamic clustering technique: and (2) a form of factor analysis. Using this form of analysis nuclei of affine varieties (points, axes, planes, etc) are identified. Different case studies were analyzed in order to establish the advantages of the method compared to other methods. Geochemical analyses of rock samples; that is, rhyolites, mafic, and intermediate rocks of the Normetal (Abitibi) area were subjected to typological factor analysis for the purpose of classification of geological deposits and detection of geochemical anomalies. The method was also applied to the classification of sediments from the Barataria Bay area in Louisiana.     

The Neutral, Barotropic Planetary Boundary Layer, Capped by a Low-Level Inversion

The presence of a low-level, capping inversion layer will affect the height and structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Results from models of varying levels of sophistication, including analytical, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), second-order closure (SOC), large-eddy simulation (LES) and direct numerical simulation (DNS) models, are used to investigate this influence for the neutral, barotropic PBL. Predicted and observed profiles of stress and geostrophic departure components, and integral measures, such as the parameters of Rossby-number similarity theory, are compared for the KONTUR, Marine Stratocumulus, JASIN, Leipzig, Pre-Wangara and Upavon field experiments.Analytical models of the equilibrium value of inversion height z_i, which depend on the surface friction velocity u_*, and both the Coriolis parameter f and the free-flow Brunt-Väisälä frequency N, are found to give reasonable estimates of the PBL height. They also indicate that only the KONTUR and Marine Stratocumulus experiments were strongly influenced by N. More quantitative comparisons would require larger, more comprehensive datasets. The effects of the presence of a capping inversion on the profile structure were found to be insignificant for h_* = |f|z_i/u_* > 0.15.The simple analytical model performed quite well over all values of h_*; it predicted the profiles of the longitudinal stress component (in the direction of the surface stress) better than the lateral component. The more advanced models performed well for small values of h_* (for flow over the sea), but systematically underestimated the cross-isobaric angle for flow over land. These models predicted the profiles of the lateral stress component better than the longitudinal component. The profiles of the analytical model agreed with those of the advanced models when the constant eddy viscosity of the outer layer was increased.Agreement with DNS was achieved by increasing the eddyviscosity of the analytical model by a factor of 5.Zilitinkevich and Esau(2002, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 104, 371–379)suggest that the neutral, barotropic values of A and B of Rossby-numbersimilarity theory are not universal constants, but depend on the ratio N/|f|. The dependence for A and B is calculated using the analytical model and TKE models. Over the sea (h_* 0.1; N/|f| 100, where we have used the Zilitinkevich-Esau relation to convert between h_* and N/|f|) there is agreement between the model predictions and observations; however over land where the equilibrium boundary-layer height is greater (h_* 0.35; N/|f| 10) the inconsistency between the advanced model predictions (TKE, SOC, LES, and DNS) and observations, as noted previously by Hess and Garratt, still exists. We attribute this disagreement to violations of the strict assumptions of steady, horizontally homogeneous, neutral, barotropic conditions implicit in the observations. At small values of z_i and a strongly stable background stratification (h_* 0.04; N/|f| 1000) both the TKE and analytical models predict that A and B depend significantly on h_*, however observations are unavailable to confirm these predictions. Zilitinkevich and Esau call this case the `long-lived near-neutral PBL', and state that it is found in cold weather at high latitudes.     

面向Internet的农业气象产量动态预报

针对信息时代Internet网上用户对产量预报动态查询的需求 ,探讨了面向Inter net的农业气象产量预报的解决方案。试验结果表明 ,由于作物生长发育和产量形成是一个光、温、水、土条件长期、综合作用 ,生物量长期累积的过程 ,因此利用积分回归方法 ,考虑全生育期光、温、水气象因子的综合影响 ,根据已出现的天气实况 ,在假定后期天气条件正常的情况下 ,有可能预测出未来产量的趋势。随着天气实况的逐一出现 ,后期的预报结果可望逐步接近实际值。统计检验和试报结果误差均在允许范围内。     

基于PDA的移动导航系统的动态标注

动态标注是移动导航系统传达导航信息的一个重要方面.针对PDA移动导航系统的特点,围绕如何在导航过程中正确、高效地进行地图动态标注这一问题进行了研究.对于点状地物,提出了一种基于格网整体规划,分块注记的方法;对于线状地物,提出了拆分注记文本、投影标注的方法.该方法能够有效地避免注记压盖和信息缺损等现象,同时还能保证在PDA导航过程中实时、高效地进行动态标注.保证了地图显示的可读性和美观程度,同时也保持了地图浏览的流畅性.     

采用经典大地测量技术确定珠峰大地高(2005)的研究

以往对常规测量数据进行处理时,常采用平面与高程分别平差得出珠峰峰顶(山头或觇标)相应于某椭球的平面位置(经纬度)与大地高。提出采用平面与高程进行联合处理的方法,并就这两种方法采用的模型、数据处理方法及最终结果(主要是大地高)进行讨论与分析,并与GPS的结果进行比较,分析其差异。